Transcript How WWF is responding to Climate Change in our Conservation Work

Approaching Adaptation
Climate Change
Adaptation
101
Jennie Hoffman, EcoAdapt
Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director,
WHMSI III,
Asuncion Paraguay
EcoAdapt
July 24, 2008
Climate Change Adaptation is:
* A set of methodologies to reduce the
vulnerability of species, communities,
processes, etc. to climate change
* A new way of thinking about what we do
and how we do it
-Consider time as well as space
-Change is the only constant
New Conservation Paradigm
1) Protect Adequate and
Appropriate Space as
dictated by climate change
2) Limit all Non-climate
Stresses that are made
worse by or worsen the
effects of climate change
3) Use Adaptive Management
& start testing strategies
now
4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas
Emissions to limit the
amount of stress
1) Protect adequate and appropriate
space for a changing world:
• Representation
– Networks of reserves
– Gradients (latitude, elevation)
– Diversity of habitats
• Replication
• Protect resistant and
resilient communities
• Create/protect refugia
Adequate/appropriate space, cont’d
• Protect ecosystem linkages
– Protect entire watersheds
– Protect coastal buffer to allow inland
movement
• Design reserves based on
features less likely to change
• Protect key ecosystem
features
– Breeding grounds
– Migratory species stopover areas
Pollution &
Unsustainable Harvest
Habitat Degradation
2) Reduce non-climate stresses
likely to negatively interact with
effects of climate change
©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON
Invasive
Species
© WWF-Canon / Jürgen
Agriculture & Habitat
Fragmentation
©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER
3) Employ active adaptive
management approaches and start
testing strategies
“integration of design, management, and
monitoring to systematically test
assumptions in order to adapt and learn”
(Salafsky et al., 2002)
**COMBINE RESEARCH AND
ACTION:
We need to act now, and we
need to learn what works
© WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht
Describe
current
status
Identify
threats
Adjust
management
as needed
Combine research and
action: “Fail early and
Define
often”
goals/targets
Implement plan,
monitor
success
Develop
action/monitoring
plan
4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas
Emissions
For some systems resilience building
options are scarce and mitigation is
needed
• Adaptation: anything that increases a
community’s ability to remain intact and
functional in the face of climate change
• Resistance: ability to withstand change
• Resilience: ability to recover from
change
How do we do adaptation?
Reducing vulnerability to climate change revolves
around two key questions:
1. How vulnerable are the communities, ecosystems,
species, social structures, etc. that we care about to
climate change? [vulnerability assessment]
2. What can we do to limit or reduce
vulnerability/support resistance or resilience?
[adaptation planning]
Two basic approaches: Top Down and Bottom Up
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
Changes in: temperature, precipitation amount and timing,
currents, sea level, water chemistry, stratification, etc.
What might change?
How much?
How soon?
How certain are we?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS
What ecological effects are likely to result from these changes
(e.g. range changes, timing of seasonal events, species
interactions, etc.)?
What cultural, economic, and subsistence effects are likely to
result from these changes?
What might change? How much? How soon?
How certain are we?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS
3. PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES
What critical ecological/social/economic/cultural structures and
processes are most resilient? Most at risk?
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND
PROCESSES
What variables (ecological/social/economic/cultural) are critical to
ecosystem or community function?
What conservation priorities have been identified for the
ecoregion?
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES
How do climatic forces influence these key species, structures,
processes, priorities, etc.?
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES , SPECIES AND PROCESSES
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
What climatic changes are predicted for the region in question?
How will these affect key structures, processes, and priorities?
What will my protected area, farm, etc. look like in 50 years?
2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES
How do you use vulnerability
assessments to design adaptation
strategies?
BUILDING ADAPTATION PLANNING INTO YOUR
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
PHYSICAL CHANGE:
Increasing dryness
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
ADAPTATION OPTION:
Protect/restore forests
(forests increase retention
of moisture in air & soil,
increase rainfall)
PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES
BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
ADAPTATION OPTION:
Manage dams to support
adequate flow or remove
dams altogether; minimize
warming of water by
protecting/restoring
riverside vegetation
2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES
CLIMATIC INFLUENCES:
River temperature and flow
1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND
PROCESSES
KEY SPECIES:
Salmon
Climatic Change
Likely effects
Possible adaptation
options
Climatic Change
Likely effects
Possible adaptation
options
Increasing sea level
Decreased sea turtle
nesting beach habitat
Protect areas inland of
beaches to allow natural
shift in location
Altered wind patterns
Possible effect on bird
migration paths and
energetics
Protect good stopover
habitat along migratory
routes that may become
more heavily used
Adding in a few complicating factors:
Climate change is not happening in a
vacuum
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING
INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY KEY NONCLIMATE STRESSORS
What non-climate stressors (e.g.
unsustainable land use, conflict over
water, wars, etc.) threaten ecosystem
or community function in the area of
concern?
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING
INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NONCLIMATE STRESSORS
How will predicted climate changes influence
non-climate stressors and vice versa (e.g.
increase in drought and demand for fresh
water, increase in heavy rainfall and
deforestation, coastal development and sea
level rise)?
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING
INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE
STRESSORS
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
How do interactions between climate and non-climate stressors
affect vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning?
TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING
INTERACTIVE EFFECTS
IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS
IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES
NON-CLIMATE STRESSOR:
Pollution
IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE
STRESSORS
INTERACTION:
Some pollutants are
more toxic in warmer
conditions; others
increase heat
sensitivity of animals
IDENTIFY IMPACTS
IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES
ADAPTATION OPTION:
Focus clean-up efforts on target pollutants; change laws to reduce
maximum allowable levels of target pollutants
Broaden your thinking
• Human communities will change their
behavior in response to climate change;
what does this mean for conservation of
migratory species?
• Changes in one biome can affect another
drought
flood
food
migration
Courtesy of Institute for Bird Populations
Warm-phase ENSO
(El Niño conditions)
More fledglings
in Pacific Northwest
Birds migrate
earlier, arrive in
better condition
Effects of
ENSO on
neotropicalwintering
species
Higher late winter
rainfall on wintering
ranges in west Mexico
More insect and
plant food resources for
pre-migration
conditioning
(presumably)
**The relationships between
El Nino and rainfall in
Central America vary
spatially; where birds
overwinter influences the
effect of El Nino on their
population
**The effect of the North
Atlantic Oscillation on
seabirds and hole-nesting
birds is reversed at higher
and lower latitudes
**Climate change and its effects are also likely to vary
spatially.
A few examples of adaptation options
Cover-crops
Terraces
Interplanting
Multiple benefits: hurricaneresistance, sustainable
agriculture, better habitat
Breeding salttolerant baldcypress trees in
south-eastern US
Water quality and bleaching on the Great
Barrier Reef
•Bleaching correlates with
water quality as well as
temperature
•GBRMPA working with national, regional, local
governments as well as watershed landowners/land users to
improve water quality
Three things to remember
about why to do adaptation:
• Climate change is happening right now
• Climate change is an opportunity for
creative new thinking
• Failing to include climate change in your
work means your work is vulnerable
Three things to remember
about how to do adaptation:
• Adaptation is not rocket science (but it does
require a thoughtful approach)
• Context matters
– Ecological, Political, Sociocultural, Organizational
• YOU are an expert on your region/species
– Combine available data and models with your
understanding of how things work where you are
It’s BREAKOUT TIME!
WE provide information, suggestions, feedback
YOU take the lead:
it’s YOUR day
it’s your time for strategic DOING
Go home with something useful!
No one can tell you the best solution
for your organization, region,
sector, or biome.
YOU create the solution!
Sample top-down approach
Extreme rainfall events become more common
Predicted Physical
Changes:
Increased soil erosion
Ecological Effects:
Loss of crops
Human
Community
Effects:
Increased
sedimentation of reefs,
mangroves, sea turtle
nests
River organisms
stressed by
extreme currents,
turbidity
Loss of coral
reef tourism
Loss of coastal
protection
Loss of habitat for
commercially or
culturally
important species
(e.g. crabs, fish,
shrimp, turtles,
manatees)
Sample bottom-up approach
Predicted
Change:
Climatic
influences:
Key structures,
processes, etc:
If sea level rise is
slow, soil accretion
keeps pace and
mangroves stay put
Sediment input:
too much can
smother trees, too
little reduces
accretion rate
For intermediate
rates of sea level
rise, mangroves
shift inland
For rapid sea
level rise,
mangroves
drown
Increasing temp increases
evaporation, can increase
salinity, stressing trees
Temperature:
Min/max temp
tolerance
Mangrove forests
Submergence
time: determines
location of trees