Transcript Ron Felthoven, Alaska Fisheries Science Center

Issues for Federal Fisheries off
Alaska
By
Ron Felthoven
Economics and Social Sciences Research Program
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
Rationalization Programs
Fishing and Processing Decisions Differ in an ITQ or
Cooperative System
•
•
What will happen to the size of current fleet?
• Consolidation will decrease the number of jobs in the
industry
• Can impact small rural communities
Who is likely to remain in the fishery?
• AK residents vs. non-residents
• Larger companies vs. independent owners
•
Where will the remaining vessels deliver their fish?
• Can have implications for communities dependent
upon processing
Rationalization Programs
•
•
How will rationalization in one fishery impact other?
• Owners may want to lease quota and devote all effort
elsewhere
• Time flexibility may allow for activity in both
• May affect marine mammals during critical times
How might fishing strategies change?
• Will spatio-temporal intensity of effort be dispersed or
intensified?
• Will searching behavior increase? Will new areas be
fished?
• Is cooperation among vessels likely?
Rationalization Programs
•
How might harvester’s increased flexibility be affected
by processor willingness to accept deliveries?
• Can be costly to keep plant open for deliveries for an
extended season
• One party’s predicted actions may be impacted by
another’s
•
Is highgrading likely to be a factor?
• What are the retention requirements?
• What type of observer coverage is required?
• Do processors pay a premium for certain size or grade
of a given species?
Fuel Costs
•
Increased Fuel Costs Affect Many Aspects of
Fishing
• Increased costs make marginally profitable operations
unprofitable
• Need to offset cost increases may change fishery participation
and fishing locations
• Managers may want to consider repercussion of these
behavioral responses
• Can/will vessels modify their engines to save fuel?
• How is the competitive balance between wild caught fish and
aquaculture affected?
• Can bio-fuels be derived from fish oil to offset diesel price
increases; is there interest?
Bycatch
How Can One Manage or Allocate Bycatch to
Maximize Value?
• Bycatch is a limiting factor in many target fisheries
• Bycatch is allocated to sectors and gear groups
• What incentives can be used to decrease bycatch?
• Pollock fishery has a salmon bycatch cooperative agreement
• Participants share real-time bycatch information with SeaState Inc.
• SeaState compiles information and makes recommendations about
where to fish
• Vessels who ignore recommendations or have excessive bycatch
are penalized and cannot fish in prime fishing grounds
• Bycatch reports are published showing vessels with most bycatch
• Fines may be levied against those not adhering to the rules
Bycatch
• The pollock system doesn’t value bycatch at the
margin
• A tradable bycatch system could allow bycatch
to be used in its highest valued use
• The marginal value of a bycatch is (probably) not
equal across sectors and gear groups
• Some species (e.g. salmon) may have higher value as
bycatch than in their target fisheries
• Would require initial allocations
• May provide perverse incentives to develop a history
Protected Species
How is industry impacted by protected species measures?
• How are profits affected by the loss of fishing choices
through MPAs?
• Where will fishermen redistribute effort?
• How are fishing costs affected by having to fish in
different areas?
• How are other commercial endeavors impacted?
• Shipping and transportation
• Oil and gas exploration/development
Aquaculture
How will wild capture fisheries be impacted by the supply
of aquaculture?
• How much effort should be spent on marketing?
• What is the WTP on behalf on industry?
• Should AK specialize in wild fisheries or experiment
with mariculture?
• What are the environmental risks for the ecosystem
and existing stocks?
• Can aquaculture production be used as a hedge
against fuel price or stock fluctuations?
• How susceptible is the value of AK fisheries to expanded
supply of substitute products?
Stock Fluctuations
Pollock quota has been dropping and is likely to fall again
next year
• Composition of the 2 million ton cap may begin to
look much different
•
•
Pollock will not eat up as much of the 2 million tons
In particular, arrowtooth flounder population is flourishing
• Where will fishing effort redistribute?
• What will be the market impacts of increased
landings of non-pollock groundfish?
• Will any new problems (bycatch, protected species,
etc.) arise with effort increase in other fisheries?
Down the Road: Climate
Change
Climate Change will Alter the Bering Sea Ecosystem in
Myriad of Ways
• The spatial distribution of fish populations is likely to
change
•
The productivity and population of species will likely
change
• Some may even be threatened (e.g. shellfish and
acidification)
•
May see a complete loss of sea ice in the summer
• Will affect ecosystem productivity and timing
• Will open up shipping routes and could generate further
environmental repercussions
Climate Change (cont.)
•
Fishermen will have to adapt strategies
• Change target species
• Change fishing locations
• Change vessel capital if fishing occurs further out
•
Location of deliveries may shift to reflect fish abundance
• Will deliver near grounds
•
Traditional fishing communities may no longer be hubs
for marine commerce
Our current tools and Fisheries Management Plans were
devised for the system we have observed in the last few
decades…
What happens when the system changes?
Conclusion
Many of the decisions made by researchers, regulatory
analysts and fishery managers require an idea of how
fishermen and processors will behave
•
•
•
•
Modelers make assumptions about objectives, costs, earnings
Information for researchers is scarce
One then estimates impacts and/or devises policies based on
those assumptions and outcomes
Accurate predictions are hard to generate
•
•
Especially when there is uncertainty over states of nature
Methods to evaluate likely outcomes or behavior under
various sets of rules or conditions are a welcome tool!
•
•
May be able to make informed predictions with less
information