Transcript Using YSM-based MSYTs in the Morice TSR

Young Stand Monitoring
applied in the
Morice TSR
R. de Jong
CSC Winter Workshop
27 February 2014
Assessment of Mid-rotation Stands
Stand Development Monitoring
(SDM)
Young Stand Monitoring
(YSM)
∆ Leg and Practice
∆ TSR
• To assess Timber Objective of
FRPA (FREP)
– To change Legislation if required
– To change PRACTICE if required
• Stand Level assessment –
10 plots per polygon,
summarized per TSA
• To assess TRENDS of young stands
relative to TSR assumptions and
adjust (FAIB)
• Management Unit assessment –
permanent sample plots
established on a grid over the
target population
Morice YSM Program
• Established 2012
• 50 * 0.04ha plots
• Grid Based
• Unbiased estimate of
15 – 50 year old
target population
Objectives
•
•
•
•
•
Describe Young Stand Characteristics
Assess Accuracy of Inventory Polygons
Assess Accuracy of Site Index Estimates
Check on TSR Assumptions
Localize MSYTs using YSM data
Describe Stand Characteristics
Composition
Status #
Species Comp by BA
BA
SPH
(m2/ha) (#/ha)
m2/ha
Live
Dead
50 PL(60)SX(20)BL(13)DEC(7)
50 PL(39)SX(0)BL(7)DEC(3)XC(50)
20.6
1.1
#/ha
1,951
64
DBHq
WSV
NMV
(cm) (m3/ha) (m3/ha)
cm
11.6
14.5
m3/ha
108
6
m3/ha
65
4
Describe Stand Characteristics
Structure
Stand Table - Live
Stock Table - Live
50%
40%
PA
30%
HM
20%
SX
10%
PL
0%
DBH class (cm)
% of total m3/ha
% of total stems/ha
60%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
PA
HM
SX
PL
BL
BL
DEC
DEC
DBH class (cm)
Describe Stand Characteristics
Forest Health
Dead
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
PA
HM
SX
PL
XREM
SX
PL
Damage Agent 1
NW
DS
IAG
AD
IBM
O
U
DEC
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
NB
DS
DSA
NGC
NX
AM
IAS
IAG
DSG
U
O
Damage Agent 1
BL
% of total BA (m2/ha)
% of total BA (m2/ha)
Live
BL
DEC
Assess Accuracy of Inventory Polys
Observed vs. VRI Species Composition
70%
Species percent
60%
50%
40%
30%
GRD
20%
VRI
10%
0%
DEC
BL
PL
SX
Species
HW
HM
XC
Assess Accuracy of SI Estimates
Observed vs. Provincial Site Prod Tile
25
Site Index (m)
20
15
Grd
10
Prd
5
0
AT
BL
PL
Site Tree Species
SX
Check on TSR Assumptions
TIPSY MSYTs @ each Sample Point
Net Merch Volume (m3/ha)
# Ground
Samples
50
MSYT
Volume
27
Ground Difference
Volume (m3/ha)
48
21
250
Grd
Prd
Avg MSYT
200
150
100
50
0
0
10
20
30
Total Age
40
50
60
Localize MSYTs with YSM Data
Characteristic Impact Applied in
Site index
Base
Assumption
Species mix
Base
Assumption
Forest health
Alternate
Scenario
Localize MSYTs with YSM Data
Site Index Adjustment
• TSR-based SI underestimated compared to
ground-based site index.
• Action: apply site index adjustment by species
Localize MSYTs with YSM Data
Species Composition
• YSM ground species mix vs. TSR assumptions
• Action: Apply YSM species mix by AU
Scenario
Species Percent by THLB
HWD
BL
PL
SX
Total
YSM species mix
1
13
60
25
100
TSR Existing Assumptions
1
27
46
26
100
TSR Future Assumptions
0
1
40
59
100
Localize MSYTs with YSM Data
Forest Health Impact
• Worst-case FH scenario assumes all stem rust
affected Pine will die at rotation.
• Action: Apply incremental OAF1 in Pine
dominated regimes
Data Source % of Total SPH
(host species)
RESULTS
10
SDM
21
YSM
25
% of Total SPH
(all species)
% of Total BA
(all species)
16
15
16
Pine Med AU – Site Index
Pine Med AU – Species mix
Pine Med AU – Forest Health
Pine Med AU – Combined Impact
Morice TSR Scenarios
Scenario
Base Case
Run
Era
Existing Managed Stands
Managed Stand Yield Table
YSM (SIA + species)
Future Managed Stands
2013 Data Package regimes
Alternate
Scenario
Run
Existing Managed Stands
YSM (SIA + species + FH)
Future Managed Stands
YSM (SIA + species + FH + GG)
Summary
• YSM to describe young stand population
• YSM as a check on TSR assumptions, both
current and future stands
• YSM to generate localized MSYTs
• YSM to support alternative modeling
scenarios with measured data (forest health)
• Future YSM data to include change (growth /
mortality)