Transcript Slide 1

The use of Delphi for the listing of Species and
Ecological Communities and Key Threatening
Processes.
Dr Angela Dwyer
The 10th Annual Colloquium of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Academy of
Environmental Law Global Environmental Law at a Crossroads
Megadiverse countries
DECISION ENVIRONMENT
Decision-making in relation to threatened species and ecological
communities is particularly susceptible to challenges over methodology.
Many decisions are made under circumstances where:
• the available scientific evidence is uncertain, inadequate, or inexact;
• the decisions are generally science-based and the link between science and
policy is clouded; and
• the decisions are often made against a background of hostility or potential
conflict.
One of the important areas of concern is how decisions for listing are
made in the face of scientific uncertainty.
The issue of methodological choice for the scientific community is a key
feature of this paper.
The Environment Protection and Biodiversity
Conservation Act 1999 (Cth)
Under the EPBC Act actions which have or are likely to have significant impact on
Matters of national environmental significance require assessment and approval.
The current matters of national environmental significance under the
EPBC Act include:
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World Heritage properties;
National Heritage places;
Wetlands of international importance (Ramsar listed wetlands);
Listed threatened species and ecological communities;
Migratory species protected under international agreements (such as CAMBA
and JAMBA);
Approach
 Adopts a traditional approach to biodiversity conservation to the extent that it
enables listing of threatened species, communities, critical habitat and
threatening processes. Provides for recovery planning and abatements plans
for threatening processes.
 Establishes a Threatened Species Scientific Committee. The functions of the
Committee include advising the Minister on the amendment and updating of
lists for threatened species, threatened ecological communities, and key
threatening processes together with the making or adoption of recovery plans
and threat abatement plans.
Nomination
TSSC : advice
Department
Minisiter: decision
Listing of species, ecological communities and KTPs
The EPBC Act defines
 A 'threatened species' as one that has been classified in one of six
categories; for example, a critically endangered species is one that is
facing an extremely high risk of extinction in the wild in the immediate
future.
 An 'ecological community' is defined as an assemblage of native
species that inhabits a particular area in nature, qualifies under the
Regulations, and can be categorised as critically endangered,
endangered, or vulnerable.
 A 'key threatening process' KTP is a process that threatens, or may
threaten, the survival, abundance or evolutionary development of a
native species or ecological community.
Traditional Science
Research institutes, universities, and industry development
Traditional Science (including Sound Science)
• Elegant experiments, clear hypothesis, simple model.
• Includes the hard sciences, such as physics and chemistry.
• Often laboratory based.
• Empirical, field tested, use of hypothesis testing, and
experimentation. Foundation for regulatory science but not a
substitute.
• 'Objective' knowledge through scientific expertise, marginalises the
public as non-experts, and discounts lay knowledge as value-laden.
• Rigorous peer review. Based on advancement of knowledge with
each advance built on knowledge acquired earlier.
• The cost of 'incorrect knowledge' quite high, affecting not only that
building block in the foundation but those that follow.
REGULATORY SCIENCE : GOVERNMENT/INDUSTRY REGULATION
Regulatory Science:
• Observational studies, measured and extrapolated data, predictive
modelling,
• Expert opinion, best available science.
• Scientific shortcomings in data, time and certainty identified and
inform the decision process.
• Grounded in empirical evidence and 'quite sound'. Non-empirical
sources used if required.
• Often used by conservation and wildlife biologists.
• Pragmatic.
• Assessment not to dictate decisions, modestly conceived to provide
information.
• May be tainted by the 'perils of politics'.
THE CONTRAST
'Regulatory science' is described as 'policy-related' or 'post-normal':
‘...is a new form of applied science driven by the need to provide scientific answers to causal
questions implicit in modern environmental programs. This challenges scientists, because the
issues are framed by legislatures and regulators and force the scientific community to adapt its
processes and protocols of inference and proof to answer them': D. Tarlock, 'Who owns
science?' (2002) 10 Pennsylvania state Environmental Law Review 135, 145-146.
The distinction is important as the tolerance of uncertainty varies depending on
the nature of the science used, and has implications for the provision of scientific
advice and ultimately the decision-making process.
'The elegant experiment, clear hypothesis, and simple model are icons of good
science. But when science enters the arena of endangered species recovery, the
science is rarely, elegant, clear, or simple.‘ (M. Ruckelshaus 2003, 665)
Definitions of Delphi
“A method for obtaining independent forecasts from an expert panel
over two or more rounds with summaries of the anonymous forecasts
(and perhaps reasons for them) provided after each round.” (Armstrong, 2001, p.
776)
“... a set of procedures for eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of people.
In practice, the procedures would be used with a group of experts or especially
knowledgeable individuals.” (Dalkey, 1967, p. 1)
“... a group process which utilizes written responses as opposed
to bringing individuals together . . . . it means for aggregating the
judgments of a number of individuals in order to improve the quality of
decision making.” (Delbecq, Van de Ven, & Gustafson, 1986, p. 83)
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE
1. Anonymity: The use of questionnaires or other communication where
expressed responses are not identified as being from specific members of the
panel.
2. Controlled feedback: allows interaction with a large reduction in discord
among panel members. Interaction consists of allowing interaction among
group members in several stages, with the results of the previous stage
summarized and group members asked to reevaluate their answers as
compared to the thinking of the group.
3. Group opinion: a statistical average of the final opinions of the individual
members, with the opinion of every group member reflected in the final group
response.
Dalkey (1967)
BACK TO THE TSSC
Methodology
• Assessment criteria
• The Act is very vague and the Regulations provide no clear guidance
• The TSSC designed its own set of guidleines
Uncertainty/Lack of data
• Inherent contextual uncertainty or lack of data is a reality that cannot be
overcome by rigid scientific approaches.
• Uncertainty must be accepted and accommodated, not deployed as a
justification for inaction. The Australian experience, which is hampered by
vaguely drafted legislation that is interpreted narrowly, typifies the latter
approach. Historically, uncertainty has been fatal to a listing nomination: the
preference is to do nothing.
LARGE EARTH BUMBLEBEE (BOMBUS TERRESTRIS ) AS A KTP TO
NATIVE BEES.
Flickriver.com
In 2005 an application to list the large earth bumblebee as a Key Threatening Process to a listed species was
rejected.
There was conflicting expert evidence from 'no evidence to justify listing' to 'a clear potential for impacts’ and that ‘the
nomination was comprehensive and balanced' and warnings that 'waiting for compelling evidence would mean
leaving Bombus terrestris unchecked and that listing and abatement should occur as a precautionary measure.‘
The TSSC recommended that the process was not eligible for listing as a key threatening process as the data
available did not disclose sufficient impact and there were 'difficulties in assessing this process' with no strong
evidence to prove that they caused a negative effect only 'a possible potential to threaten listed species and broader
ecological processes.'
Disturbingly, the TSSC was nonetheless moved to urge 'that extreme caution be shown in considering any proposal to
introduce this species to the mainland. In taking this position, it highlights the concern that many native species are
dependent on native pollinators, so it could potentially be a threat in the future‘
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In 2006, after public comment, all States and Territories refused a proposal to import the Large Earth Bumblebees.
In 2008, the Minister, the Hon Peter Garrett, refused to permit the import of bumblebees on precautionary grounds,
highlighting the disastrous consequences of previous imports of alien species.
There are numerous instances of nominations where there is a lack of data but
serious concern within the scientific community.
The TSSC does not seem to have method of dealing with uncertainty and
conflicting opinion.
Relying on prescriptive formulas and thresholds that need to be met precludes
flexibility and alternative methods of assessment.
Delphi is being used by scientists to determine the scope of studies but is
not yet an entrenched or even tested ’methodology’ for the purposes of
Listing.
United States Approach
The US Forest Service conducts multiple species viability assessments using
expert panels and a modified Delphi’ approach
The United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and many state wildlife
agencies periodically assess the status of wildlife populations to determine
whether a species should be listed as sensitive, threatened, or endangered.
Delphi method catalyst for focusing direction. Recently used in the
Review of nongame birds of management concern - the 1995 list.
NEW JERSEY
January 2011the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection released
a rule proposing certain changes to endangered species list and other
considerations about rare wildlife in the state.
The species being added to the list are the black rail, golden-winged warbler, red
knot, Indiana bat and gray petaltail (a dragonfly). The Indiana Bat is being
added because it is on the federal endangered species list and any species
on this list also found in New Jersey is, by default, considered endangered in
New Jersey.
‘The other species are being added to the list as a
result of a review of their status using something
called the Delphi Technique.’
•The golden-winged warbler is uncommon to
rare and declining throughout most of its
range. © MacKenzie Hall