Transcript The Good, the Bad, the Worrisome A Critical Look at the

The Good, the Bad, the Worrisome
A Critical Look at the
New Common Fisheries Policy of the EC
Rainer Froese
[email protected]
Presentation at the 2013 Pew Fellows Meeting
17-21 October, Malahide, Ireland
Background
• Member States of the EC have deferred
fisheries management to the European
Community (Commission, Parliament, Council)
• The Common Fisheries Policy of the past
decades aimed to keep fish stocks just above
the border to collapse
• Many stocks (e.g. North Sea cod) collapsed
under fishing pressure 3 times Fmsy
The Good (I)
• The new CFP, to be implemented from 2014
onward, finally recognizes the legally binding
fisheries reference points set by UNCLOS
(1982) and UNFSA (1995)
• CFP: "..objective of [] restoring and
maintaining [] fish stocks above biomass levels
capable of producing maximum sustainable
yield“
The Good (II)
• “.. ensure that negative impacts of fishing
activities on the marine ecosystem are minimized
..“
• “gradually eliminate discards [..] by avoiding and
reducing [..] unwanted catches and gradually
ensuring that all catches are landed“
• “.. make the best use of unwanted catches,
without creating a market for such catches that
are below the minimum conservation reference
size“
The Good (III)
• “.. be coherent with the Union environmental
legislation, in particular the objective of
achieving a good environmental status by
2020..“
The Good (IV)
• “ecosystem-based fisheries management
means [..] to manage fisheries within
ecologically meaningful boundaries [..] while
preserving both the biological wealth and the
biological processes necessary to safeguard
the composition, structure and functioning of
the habitats of the ecosystem..”
The Bad (I)
• Fishing opportunities (the catch allowed in the
next year for 100+ stocks) continue to be
decided by the Council of agriculture/fisheries
ministers, even if multiannual plans exist
• Parliament has to be involved in the decision
of multi-annual plans, but the details of such
involvement are disputed
The Bad (II)
• No deadline for restoring stocks above the size
that can produce MSY.
• “In order to reach this objective of [..]
restoring [..] fish stocks [..], the maximum
sustainable yield exploitation rate shall be
achieved by 2015 where possible and [..]
latest by 2020 for all stocks.”
The Bad (III)
• “provisions of de minimis exemptions of up to
5% of total annual catches of all species
subject to an obligation to land [..]”
• Lots of vagueness by using language such as
“may”, “should”, “shall”, “gradually”,
“progressively”, “where necessary”, “where
appropriate”, “where applicable”, “taking into
account”, “avoiding disproportionate costs”, …
Status of Stocks
Extending the trends
in the last 3 years for the
95% confidence limits…
Based on the ICES Stock Summary database 10/2013 with data for 45 stocks [relF_relB.xlsx]
The Worrisome (I)
• CFP decisions are to be “based on best
available scientific advice”
• But how independent and good is that advice?
The Worrisome (II)
• Most fisheries scientist in Europe are directly
or indirectly employed by the Ministers of
Agriculture (the same who decide about
fisheries management in Brussels)
• The policy-setting Council of ICES (the
advisory body to the EC) consists of national
representatives who are determined by the
Ministers of Agriculture (the same…)
The Worrisome (III)
• Fisheries science holds that mortality caused
by sustainable fishing (Fmsy) should be less
than natural mortality (M) caused by e.g.
predation, diseases, natural hazards or old age
• However, in 29 of 38 stocks (76%) with
available data, the ICES estimate of Fmsy
exceeded M, on average by 62%
Status of Stocks
True F/Fmsy may be higher because
of unrealistically high Fmsy
in 76% of the stocks
Based on the ICES Stock Summary database 10/2013 with data for 45 stocks
The Worrisome (III)
• ICES provides estimates of the border of safe
biological limits (SSBpa)
• However, in 14 of 43 stocks (33%) with
available data, the ICES estimate fell below the
median estimate of three independent
methods
Stock-Recruitment Relationship
Conceptual drawing of the hockey stick relationship between spawning stock size and recruitment. SSBlim marks the border
below which recruitment declines, SSBpa marks a precautionary distance to SSBlim, and 2 * SSBpa can be used as a proxy for
SSB , the stock size that can produce the maximum sustainable catch. [ContHS.xlsx].
Underestimation of Safe Biological Limits
SSBpa
ICES three independent methods
Analysis of stock-recruitment data for North Sea Doggerbank Sandeel (san-ns1), with three different methods. [S-R_HS_5_san-ns1.r]
Status of Stocks
True SSB/SSBpa may be lower
because of unrealistically low SSBpa
in 33% of the stocks
Based on the ICES Stock Summary database 10/2013 with data for 45 stocks
The Worrisome (IV)
• The CFP asks for an ecosystem-based
approach to fisheries management
• ICES has started providing “Multispecies
considerations”, e.g. for the Baltic. In there,
ICES recommends maximization of catch from
the ecosystem. The resulting “multispecies
advice” for Fmsy exceeds single species advice
for all species.
See: http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2013/2013/Baltic%20Multispecies%20Advice.pdf
Thank You
Questions?
Rainer Froese
[email protected]