Transcript Oregon Coast Coho ESU Listing Status

Oregon Coastal Coho
Goals & Status
West Coast Salmon Summit 2016
Canyonville Oregon
September 26, 2016
Mark Lewis
ODFW Coastal Spawning Survey Project
Corvallis Oregon
Phone: (541) 757-4263 x241
Email: [email protected]
Oregon Coastal Coho
Populations
Western Oregon Coho
3 ESUs
Each with:
2 to 5 Strata and
8 to 21 Populations in Oregon
Focus on:
Oregon Coast Coho ESU
Species Status and
Management Plans
Listing Status
 Federal Endangered Species Act – Threatened Species
 Oregon Endangered Species Act – Not Listed
 Oregon Sensitive Species List – Vulnerable Species
Management Plans and Guidance
 Proposed Federal ESA Recovery Plan
 Oregon Native Fish Conservation Plan (OCCCP)
 Viable Salmonid Populations-VSP (McElhany et al. 2000)
Viable Salmonid Populations
VSP Parameters
 Abundance
 Productivity
 Spatial Structure
 Diversity
Basis for design of ODFW monitoring program, Goals
in the OCCCP, and the Decision Support System (DSS)
used in NMFS status reviews under the ESA
Oregon Plan Monitoring
Habitat Surveys
Adult Surveys
Life-Cycle Monitoring
Juvenile Surveys
Habitat Surveys
Metrics
• Stream habitat metrics evaluated
• Wood volume (m3/100m)
• Benthic fine sediment (%)
• Winter parr capacity (reflects presence of off-channel habitats
and floodplain connectivity) (parr/km)
• Channel shade (%)
• Scales evaluated
• OCC Monitoring strata – North coast, Mid-Coast, Mid-South
Coast, Umpqua
• Stream size – ODF stream size delineations
• Forest ownership – Federal, Private, State
Habitat Surveys
Metric
Wood Volume
Monitoring area
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Fine Sediment
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Winter parr
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Channel shade
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Stream size
High probability of declining
trends in NC
No trends detected in MC,
MS, UMP
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High probability of declining
trends in NC and MC
No trends detected in MS,
UMP
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High probability of declining
trends in NC, MC, and MS
No trends detected in UMP
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High probability of declining
trends in MS and increasing
trends in UMP
No trends detected in NC, MC
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Ownership
Difference in volumes across
stream size
Decreasing on small and
medium streams
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Difference in percentages
across stream size
Decreasing on medium
streams
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Difference in capacity across
stream size
Decreasing on small and
medium streams
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Difference in percentages
across stream size
Increasing on small streams
Decreasing on large streams
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Differences in volumes
across ownerships
No trends detected
Differences in percentages
across ownerships
No trends detected
Differences in capacity
across ownerships
Decreasing trends on state
forests
Differences in percentages
across ownerships
No trends detected
Adult Surveys
Estimated Wild coho Abundance and Harvest Impact
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Decreasing
Total Coho,
1950 to 1997
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Increasing
Total Coho,
1997 to 2015
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Spawners high
in recent years
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R/S variable
and inversely
related to
spawners
Adult Surveys
Estimated Wild and Hatchery adult coho spawning naturally in the ESU
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Increasing Wild Abundance,
but variable and cyclic
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Decreasing Hatchery
Abundance
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Sharpe decline in pHOS,
less than 10% since 2002
and less than 5% since 2008
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2015 lowest since 2000,
but higher than 1990-1999
average (57K versus 46K).
Adult & Juvenile Surveys
Estimated Occupancy of Coho Spawner and Juveniles, based on random surveys
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DSS results from 2015,
goal is 12 year average of
at least 80% occupancy
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Occupancy measured by
fifth field HUC
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Increasing occupancy for
spawners, but variable
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Increasing occupancy for
summer parr, less variable
Juvenile Surveys
Comparison of Summer Coho Parr Abundance to Parental Spawner Abundance
Life-Cycle Monitoring
Estimated life-stage survival based on 7 Oregon Coastal LCM sites (Nehalem to Coos Bay)
Freshwater Survival measured as: Eggs to Smolt
Marine Survival Measured as: Smolt to Adult Ocean Recruit
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Wide range in survival
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No strong indications of trend
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Highly variable Marine Survival
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Slight decrease for Freshwater?
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Since 2013 LCM survival data
used in Harvest Management
Life-Cycle Monitoring
Survival at LCM sites in comparison to ESU wide Adults
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Strong relationships
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Higher spawner abundance,
lower freshwater survival
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Higher marine survival,
higher adult production
Decision Support System
Comparison of last two DSS results
OR Coast
ESU
Max. over the next 100 years.
PP-2 Criterion:
The Coho
population
has a high2012
likelihood2015
of persisting
ESU Persistence (EP)
0.44
0.73
0.91
ESU Sustainability (ES)
0.23
0.29
0.44
21 Independent Populations
2012
2015
TV > 0.6
2012 - 2015
TV < - 0.6
2012 - 2015
PP-1 (12 yr NRR)
0.69
0.71
18 - 19
1 - 1
PP-3 (12 yr Critical Abund.)
0.40
0.66
8 - 16
1 - 1
PD-1 (Up to 100 yr Avg. Abund.)
0.24
0.26
6 - 6
3 - 3
PD-2 (6 yr pHOS)
0.55
0.87
13 - 19
2 - 0
PD-3 (12 yr Adult Occ.)
0.49
0.65
10 - 14
1 - 0
PD-4 (12 yr Juv. Occ.)
0.60
0.69
15 - 16
1 - 1
Coho Harvest Management
• Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC):
Salmon Fishery Management Plan
• Harvest matrix (Amendment 13) updated in 2013
• Two Forecasts used for Management Options
 Adult Coho Abundance
 Marine Survival
PFMC Web Page: http://www.pcouncil.org/
Harvest
Hatchery
Conclusions
• Substantial changes in management and monitoring of the Oregon Coast
Coho ESU beginning in the 1990s.
• Starting 19th year of long-term intensive monitoring. Now have very large
datasets for use in analysis and modeling.
• Some trends in freshwater habitat variables as some scales. However, longterm nature of habitat change and relatively low intensity of sampling
complicate trend detection.
• Juvenile coho occupancy rate increasing, but parr abundance at capacity?
• Adult coho abundance increasing last 19 years after declining (1950-1997).
• Harvest and hatchery impacts substantially reduced.
• DSS scores improving, for metrics that are updated.
Questions?
Ocean Conditions
Table SF-02 shows rank scores for the color-coding in Table SF-01.
Scores were assigned based on their effect on juvenile salmonids.
We show variables that are correlated with returns of coho salmon
after 1 year and of Chinook salmon after 2 years. For example,
positive PDO values (and red colors) indicate poor ocean conditions
in coastal waters off the northern California Current. Similarly, higher
sea surface temperatures in summer are a negative indicator for
salmon, but particularly so for resident coho salmon. Table SF-03
shows the values of each variable shown by rank in Table SF-02.
Peterson et al. 2015. Ocean Ecosystem Indicators of Salmon Marine Survival in the Northern California Current
https://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fe/estuarine/oeip/index.cfm
Habitat Surveys
Conclusions
Status
• Differences in habitat conditions across stream sizes and forest
ownerships
Trends
• Variable trends detected across monitoring strata and stream sizes
• High probability of declining trends in all metrics in one or more
monitoring strata
• No trends across forest ownership except in winter parr declines on state
lands
Restoration
• Trends mostly positive; declines in wood at large % of sites
• No changes in channel complexity
• Increases in parr capacity through increases in pool complexity and pool
area
Issues with Habitat Trends
Scale
• Results dependent on spatial scale
• Always needing finer spatial scale data
How much is enough or how good is good
• Can link to ‘reference’ conditions
• There is and always will be low and high quality habitats distributed
across the landscape
How to link to decisions
• Hard to link trends to mechanism or process
• Can not pick up restoration activity signals to evaluate
effectiveness