Transcript MAA Day - North West Universities Association

Skills and the Sub-National
Review: A City Region
Perspective
……………….
Nick Gerrard
Deputy Chief Executive
Manchester Enterprises
Friday 29th February 2008
Outline
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UK Economic context
City regions
Manchester City Region
Sub-National Review and Leitch
Implications for Manchester and other City/SubRegions
• Implications for HEIs and higher skills
UK Economic Context
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Huge turn-round since 1970s
Growth of services sector
Improvements in manufacturing too
Growth supported by immigration
But:
– Growth unevenly distributed
– Concentrated in London/SE
– Other regions lagging
– UK productivity still poor
– Underlying skills problems
– Worklessness and social exclusion
Annual GDP Growth in World, G7, and UK
6
UK
World
G7
5
Per cent
4
3
2
1
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Percentage of Working Age Population
(15- 64) in Employment
85
Germany
France
UK
United States
G7
80
Per cent
75
70
65
60
55
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GDP Per Hour Worked (UK = 100)
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
1996
France
1997
1998
1999
Germany
2000
USA
2001
2002
G7
2003
2004
2005
UK City Region Movement
• Began in mid 1990s
• Core Cities Group: Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds,
Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham
and Sheffield
• Led by local authorities
• Prompted by:
– Regional disparities
– Recognition of importance of clusters and City Regions
– Concern re excessive centralisation of UK and concentration of
growth in London/SE
• Reinforced by Scottish/Welsh devolution
High Performing City Regions
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High value sectors predominate
High levels of R&D
Strong entrepreneurial culture
Concentrations of international HQs
Higher level skills
Less reliance on public sector
Efficient transport infrastructure
Manchester City Region Geography
Map data: Crown Copyright
Crown Copyright is reproduced
with the permission of the controller of HMSO
and the Queen's Printer for Scotland
Greater Manchester
Rochdale
Bolton
Bury
Oldham
Wigan
Trafford
Tameside
Ma
nch
est
e
r
Salford
Warrington
Stockport
High Peak
Macclesfield
Vale Royal
Congleton
0
10
miles
20
Economic Strengths
• Manchester - key driver for City Region and
NW Economy. Rapid GVA growth in last decade
• £50.5bn GVA in MCR in 2004 - half(50.4%)%) of NW
total; 5% of UK total
• De-industrialisation: Loss of jobs in manufacturing; but
significant growth in value added and Advanced
Manufacturing
• Rapid growth in services: F&P; ICT Digital /
Communications; Creative/Digital/New Media; Life
Sciences; Public Sector
• Decade of rising employment and employee wages
• +100,000 extra jobs forecast within the MCR over next
decade (GMFM 2007), but downside risks emerging
Business
• Significant and diverse business base
– 115,000 workplaces in MCR; 88,000 in GM
(2004)
• Business productivity levels above regional avg
• Entrepreneurship & new business start-up strong
• Long term business survival lags UK average
• Inward investment successes
• University base is internationally competitive
Labour Market
• The largest Travel to Work Area outside London
• Significant labour pool:
– MCR 1.5m economically active residents (GM 1.1m)
– Plus substantial commuting from well beyond
• Population growth forecast to continue:
– MCR 0.1% pa growth 1998 to 2003
– 0.3% pa 2006 to 2021
• But worklessness still a big challenge
Skills
• Qualification levels of employees within GM
compare well with regional and national averages
• However qualifications levels of residents lag
behind national averages
• Lower level attainment remains a significant
brake
on economic performance
• Demand for higher levels skills (development,
plus retention of graduates) will continue apace
• 75% of job opportunities will require NVQ level 2;
50% level 3 or above, over next 10 years
Benchmarking Performance
• GM GVA per capita in 2003 exceeded:
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West Yorkshire (Leeds and Bradford)
South West Scotland (Glasgow City)
Lille (Northern France)
Barcelona (North East Spain)
• But lagged ‘aspirational’ economies:
– London
– Munich
• Economic disparities within the MCR
155
122
88
115
68
93
98
109
95
93
89
77
72
77
78
97
101
128
186
Greater South East
(Regions: London, SE, E)
North West
(G.O. Region)
GtrM South
(NUTS3)
GtrM North
(NUTS3)
Greater Manchester
(NUTS2)
Manchester City Region
Cheshire
(NUTS2)
West Midlands
(NUTS2)
West Yorkshire
(NUTS2)
South West Scotland
(NUTS2)
South Yorkshire
(NUTS2)
Merseyside
(NUTS2)
Valencia
(es523)
Lille
(fr301)
Barcelona
(es511)
Torino
(itc11)
Uusima
(fi181)
München
(de212)
0
London
(G.O.Region)
200
Performance Benchmarking: GVA Per Resident Capita
(Index of 100 for the UK Average in 2004)
INDEX UK=100
excluding extra-regio
180
160
140
120
100
UK average = 100
80
60
40
20
International benchmarks based on GVA
Purchasing Power Parity data
Source: Eurostat
Key Assets
• Sector “Accelerators”
– Financial and Professional Services; Life Science
Industries; Creative, Cultural and Media;
ICT/Digital/Communications; and Manufacturing
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Manchester Airport
Concentration of world-class Universities
Dynamic Private Sector
Local authority collaboration
Strong public/private partnership
Sub National Review and Leitch
SNR: response to Core Cities and Lyons report
Key elements of SNR (and related Leitch):
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Economic development remit for LAs
Revised remit/role for RDAs
Recognition of importance of skills
Transfer of LSC budgets to LAs
Employment and Skills Boards
Encouragement to City/Sub Regions to collaborate
Multi Area Agreements (MAA) as key vehicle
SNR : NW Response
MAA proposals submitted by:
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Greater Manchester
Liverpool City Region
Fylde Coast
Pennine Lancashire
Decisions by June 2008
MAAs
• A mechanism for achieving significant
changes that could not be made in other
ways
• Inability of Local Area Agreements to meet
economic targets, as the effects of economic
development policy occur at higher spatial
levels
Manchester MAA
MAA will:
• Contribute towards Greater Manchester achieving its
economic goals
• Cover enterprise, growth, skills and employment =
the pillars
• Be focused on strategic outcomes
• Be flexible and incremental
MAA:
• An important mechanism for improving city region
governance, but not the only one
City/Sub-Regions: the Future
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Keen interest across country
Bigger role in large /diverse regions such as NW
Scottish devolution etc may give extra impetus
Effective public/private partnership is vital
Incremental development of governance
Some cooperation between City Regions
Complementing or competing with SE?
Implications for HE and Higher Skills
• Skills are central to City Region agendas
• Importance of higher skills increasingly recognised
• Employers will want to include higher skills in ESB
agendas
• Aligns with Govt pressure for HE employer
responsiveness
• Likely to affect some HEIs more than others ,
because of different missions.But all will be affected
• Need to develop new partnership mechanisms and
links, where these do not already exist
Questions?