Transcript Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales.

Changing subnational fertility
trends in England and Wales
Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba
Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for Demography
Dr Paul Norman
School of Geography, University of Leeds
Paul’s research has been funded by the ESRC's Understanding
Population Trends and Processes programme (RES-163-25-0032)
Outline
1. National trends in fertility since 1986
2. Have these same trends occurred by region?
3. Fertility trends at LA level
4. Relationship between TFR and age patterns of
fertility (LA level)
5. Insight into fertility trends within individual LAs
•
population subgroups which may influence fertility
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
Total fertility rate
Total Fertility Rate, 1986-2007
England and Wales
1.95
1.90
1.85
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.65
1.60
1.55
1.50
1.45
Live births per 1,000 women
How have age patterns of fertility
changed since 1986? (England and Wales)
140
1986
120
2001
100
2007
80
60
40
20
0
Under 20
20-24
25-29
Age
30-34
35-39
40 and over
Further changes in fertility trends
since 1986
(England and Wales)
• Increased % of births occurring outside
marriage
• 21 per cent of births in 1986
• 44 per cent of births in 2007
• Increased % of births to women born outside
the UK
• 12 per cent of births in 1986
• 23 per cent of births in 2007
Do regional TFR trends differ from
national trends?
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
Regional TFRs
England and Wales
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
1.5
19
Total Fertility Rate within
Regions
TFR pattern for E&W evident for each region - All regions
experience a record low TFR in either 2001 or 2002
Regional Trends - TFR
Regions exhibiting the highest and lowest TFRs
have varied
– Highest TFR
• 1986-1993 North West, West Midlands, Wales
• 1994-2006 West Midlands (1.96 in 2006)
– Lowest TFR
•
•
•
•
1986-1990 London, North East, South East
1990-1993 London
1994-2005 North East
2006 North East and South West (1.79)
Regional Trends – most fertile age group
• In 1986, the most fertile age group in all
regions was 25-29
• By 2006 the most fertile age group increased
to 30-34 in the East and all southern regions.
• fertility postponement in the south
Does the TFR trend at local authority level
correspond with the national trend?
Distribution of local authority TFRs 1986, 2001, 2006
Total Fertility Rate
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
1986
2001
2006
Which local authorities have the highest TFRs?
Number of times LA appeared in top 10
between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive)
Newham
21
Blackburn with Darwen UA
21
Luton UA
19
Bradford
19
Hackney and City of London
14
Oldham
14
Tower Hamlets
13
Rochdale
12
Pendle
9
Hyndburn
9
Which local authorities have the lowest TFRs?
Number of times LA appeared in bottom 10
between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive)
Cambridge
21
Durham
21
Oxford
20
Kensington and Chelsea
19
Camden
16
Hammersmith and Fulham
13
Brighton and Hove UA
12
Exeter
12
Bournemouth UA
7
Berwick-Upon-Tweed
6
How many local authorities experience
older age patterns of fertility in 2006?
Peak age of
fertility
Number of local authorities
1986
2001
2006
20-24
15
23
12
25-29
351
237
192
30-34
8
114
169
35-39
0
0
1 (Islington)
Relationship between TFR and age patterns
of fertility (local authority level)
Do areas where the TFR is low have lower
fertility at all ages when compared with areas
where the TFR is high?
Mean number of live
births per 1,000 women
Mean ASFRs in LAs with highest TFR
and LAs with lowest TFRs 2006
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under
20
20-24
Low TFR 2006
25-29
30-34
35-39
Age
40 and
over
High TFR 2006
Compared 50 LAs with lowest TFR and 50 LAs with highest TFR
An insight into
fertility in individual
local authorities...
TFR trends in selected local authorities
Total Fertility Rate
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
1986
Boston
1988
Exeter
1990
1992
E&W
1994
Newham
1996
1998
2000
2002
Blackburn With Darwen UA
2004
2006
Cambridge
Cambridge – age patterns of fertility
Live births per 1,000
women
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Under 20
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
Age
1986
TFR
Cambridge
East (Region)
1986
1.35
1.75
40 and
over
2006
2001
1.20
1.67
2006
1.39
1.87
Cambridge – Students
• Presence of HE institutions likely to affect
fertility
• Students – lower fertility while studying
• Graduates – tend to enter motherhood later
• More noticeable where % of students in
population is high
Cambridge - births to migrants
• 41% of births in 2006 were to mothers born
outside UK
• England and Wales 22%
• Diverse range of countries including
– 13% EU countries
– 5% USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand
How do international migrants affect
fertility levels?
• No clear cut relationship between %births to non-UK
born mothers and level of fertility in an area
– considerable variation in fertility levels of women from
different countries of birth
• Birth registration does not use detailed definition of
‘usual residence’
• Short term migrants not included in population
estimates
– 12 month definition of ‘usual residence’
Key findings – fertility patterns since 1986
1. National TFR patterns are reflected at the regional
level - not always mirrored at LA level
2. In 1986, all regions experienced peak fertility at ages
25-29. By 2006 the south had increased to 30-34
3. LAs with relatively high TFRs display much higher
fertility at younger reproductive ages
4. LAs with relatively low TFRs have an older age
pattern for childbearing
5. Population subgroups such as students, graduates
and migrants can impact upon period fertility in LAs.
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