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Vulnerable Local Economies Labour Market Forum 22 March 2011 Sian Rasdale The Public Sector in Scotland • December 2010 - 595,800 employed in the public sector - 24.0% of total employment • 493,100 (82.8%) derives from public bodies devolved to Scotland • 102,800 (17.2%) relates to reserved public sector employment. Make-up of the public sector in Scotland Public Sector Financial Institutions 38,500 6% Public Corporations 20,200 3% Local Government 295,200 51% Civil Service 48,700 8% NHS 160,700 27% Other Public Bodies 20,300 3% Armed Forces 12,300 2% Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Q4 2010 Is public sector employment evenly distributed? 15% to 25% jobs in public sector 25% to 35% jobs in public sector 35% to 45% jobs in public sector Source: 1. Business Register Employment Survey, 2009, ONS Supplemented by 2. Defence Analytical Services and Advice (DASA), TSP 10, October 2009, MoD 3. Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2009 SG Analysis – Indicators used – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Level/proportion of public sector jobs Increase in number of people on the claimant count since September 2008 Level/proportion of people on the claimant count longer than 12 months Gap/rate between notified vacancies and number of people on unemployment benefit. Level/proportion of people on Employment Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefit Gap between public and private sector earnings Proportion/level of employed people who are self-employed Number of jobs in vulnerable industries Number of jobs in resilient and high growth industries Number of jobs in GES key sectors Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with no qualifications Level/proportion of population aged 16-64 with NVQ4 and above Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Managers, Senior Officials and Professional Occupations’. Level/proportion of population employed in ‘Elementary Occupations’. Number of new enterprises % of Private Sector Jobs within the top 10 large employers in an area % of Jobs in Vulnerable industries SG Analysis LA Results Local Hotspots National Hotspot West Dunbartonshire North Lanarkshire North Ayrshire Glasgow City North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Ayrshire Edinburgh, City of Falkirk East Ayrshire Dundee City Fife Glasgow City North Ayrshire Midlothian Dundee City Renfrewshire Renfrewshire West Lothian West Lothian Highlighted areas are both a local and national hotspot. SG Analysis TTWA Hotspots Local Hotspot National Hotspot Irvine & Arran Glasgow Dunoon & Bute Lanarkshire Dumbarton Edinburgh Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes Ayr & Kilmarnock Hawick Kirkcaldy & Glenrothes Kelso & Jedburgh Falkirk Lochgilphead Dundee Wick Irvine & Arran Eilean Siar Livingston & Bathgate Falkirk Aberdeen Comparison of Analysis Overall ranking – ITEM Business resilience club Experian – SG Analysis – Local Hotspots Midlothian North Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire North Ayrshire Inverclyde Falkirk North Lanarkshire Clackmannanshire North Lanarkshire East Ayrshire Dundee City Clackmannanshire Falkirk West Dunbartonshire Dundee City Dundee City Eilean Siar Inverclyde Glasgow City East Lothian Renfrewshire Midlothian Fife East Ayrshire Renfrewshire Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire West Lothian Local authorities in red are in the ‘top ten’ for all three sets of analysis Local authorities in orange appear in the ‘top ten’ for two sets of analysis Dundee City • High rates of worklessness • Highly qualified workforce – underutilised? • Dependence on the public sector – 25,000 jobs of 83,000 in public sector • • • • • 8,100 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire) 850 in HMRC 600 Pension and Disability Carers Service 490 JC+ Remainder – devolved agencies/NDPBs, Police, Fire, NHS East Ayrshire • • • • Low rate of vacancies/claimant count Low private sector earnings Low qualifications Dependence on public sector – 14,000 jobs of 46,000 in public sector • • • • 6,600 in Local Govt (exc. Police and Fire) 380 JC+ 120 Child Maintenance and Enforcement Commision 40 Scottish Court Service Next Steps • Build up detailed picture of make-up of public sector for regions/LA’s • Gather information on public sector job cuts • Further analysis around local areas ability to respond Discussion • Any questions? Sian Rasdale Labour Market Statistician 0300 244 6783