Transcript 2006-07 Regional Modeling Center Workplan

2006-07 Regional Modeling Center Workplan
Fire/Carbon/Dust Workshop
May 24, 2006
Regional Modeling Center activities
• RMC Team is UC Riverside, ENVIRON, and University of North
Carolina
• Same team 2001-present
• Activities:
– Meteorological modeling & analysis
– Emissions modeling & analysis for all pollutants – special projects for
ammonia, fire, and windblown dust emissions
– CMAQ and CAMx with PSAT gridded photochemical air quality/visibility
modeling for Inter-RPO modeling domain and all Class I areas in contiguous
U.S.
– BART CalPuff support (modeling protocol, MM5 inputs, & CalMet/CalPuff
modeling
– Technology and data transfer activities for state/tribal/FLM/local agencies
and research community
• Present team funded through early 2007 – modeling support needed in
the future
• http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/
Planned Regional Modeling Runs – May to September 2006
Regional Modeling
Scenario Name
Purpose
Target
Completion
Date
Clean02a
Evaluate contribution of natural emissions to modeled visibility/air quality
May 2006
Base02b
Evaluate model performance, uses actual 2002 emissions
May 2006
Plan02b
Final 2000-04 baseline period modeling run
May 2006
Plan02b source
apportionment
Identify contributions of states’ source categories to 2000-04 haze at each Class I
area, using actual 2002 emissions for all categories except fire, which uses 200004 “typical, average” emissions
July 2006
Base18b
Final 2018 base case projection modeling run
May 2006
Base18b source
apportionment
Identify contributions of states’ source categories to 2018 haze at each Class I
area, using emissions projected for growth, control, and rules on the books
July 2006
Sensitivity18a, 18b
Road dust “zero-out” and 2018 off-shore marine emissions sensitivity runs
July 2006
PMBART18
Zero-out run for PM emissions from BART sources using regional model
July 2006
VOCBART18
Zero-out run for VOC emissions from BART sources using regional model
July 2006
Sensitivity18b
Test suites of emissions reductions under consideration by WRAP region states
Early Fall 2006
Additional runs Fall 2006 and Winter 2006/07 to be determined
WRAP Region BART Analysis Summary
Step B – BART Engineering
Analysis**
Step C – 2018 Visibility Benefit Analysis
for estimated emissions reduction from
BART application
AK
Step A – BART Culpability Analysis
(0.5 deciview threshold for 2002
actual maximum emissions rate*)
WRAP RMC
Alaska DEC
WRAP RMC
AZ
WRAP RMC
Arizona DEQ
WRAP RMC
CA
All by California ARB
CO
All by Colorado DPH&E: http://apcd.state.co.us/documents/techdocs.html
ID
Idaho DEQ issued RFP with OR and WA to do steps A & C with 12km MM5 met data - ID to do step B
MT
All by Montana DEQ, using WRAP RMC-prepared 36km met data
NV
WRAP RMC
Nevada DEP
WRAP RMC
NM
WRAP RMC
New Mexico ED
WRAP RMC
ND
All by North Dakota Department of Health
OR
Part of ID RFP with WA to do steps A and C - see ID note above - OR to do step B
SD
WRAP RMC
South Dakota DENR - 2 eligible
sources, 1 is PM only
WRAP RMC
UT
WRAP RMC
Utah DEQ
WRAP RMC
WA
Part of ID RFP with OR to do steps A and C - see ID note above - WA to handle B? - WA and Region X are working together
WY
All by Wyoming DEQ, using a contractor at 12 km or 4 km MM5 met data - 18 eligible sources
Tribal
All federal sources as far as is known, so these are up to their respective Regional Offices
*- data to be provided by permitting agency
** - may be based on separate contract support funded by Stationary Sources Joint Forum
CalPuff BART Modeling Activities
CalPuff Modeling Activities: – see May 5 draft protocol at:
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/bart.shtml, also Appendix B of 2006 Modeling Plan,
below
Target Completion
Date
Extraction of MM5 met data for specified regions
May-June 2006
Preparation of CalMet data inputs to CalPuff model
June 2006
Completed emissions parameter worksheets from states for BART-eligible sources
June 2006
CalPuff modeling activities to give results for determining “subject-to-BART” status
July-August 2006
Spreadsheet of results for each state’s interpretation of sources “subject-to-BART”
August 2006
Results of engineering studies from states on emissions reductions on BART controls
SeptemberDecember 2006?
CalPuff modeling activities to give results of applying BART controls at each source
Subsequent to
engineering studies
Final report on RMC CalPuff modeling activities as part of final RMC project report
Spring 2007
Source Apportionment Modeling
•
•
RMC White Paper on PM Source Apportionment
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/PSAT_White_Paper_111405_final_draft1.pdf
Modeling Plan for using CAMx with PSAT
Applies to 2 regional modeling runs:
– planning02b case – represents emissions during 2000-04 regional haze
baseline period – see specifications sheet
– base18b case – represents emissions forecasts to 2018 accounting for growth
and control programs on the books through 2004, includes corrections from
base18a run – see specifications sheet
Tracers:
– PSAT tracers for sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) families
– Families:
• Sulfur – 2 tracers [SO2i Primary SO2 emissions; and PS4i Particulate sulfate ion
from primary emissions plus secondarily formed sulfate]
• Nitrogen – 7 tracers [RGNi Reactive gaseous nitrogen including primary NOx (NO
+ NO2) emissions plus nitrate radical (NO3), nitrous acid (HONO) and dinitrogen
pentoxide (N2O5); TPNi Gaseous peroxyl acetyl nitrate (PAN) plus peroxyl nitric
acid (PNA); NTRi Organic nitrates (RNO3); HN3i Gaseous nitric acid (HNO3);
PN3i Particulate nitrate ion from primary emissions plus secondarily formed
nitrate; NH3i Gaseous ammonia (NH3); and PN4i Particulate ammonium (NH4)
Source Apportionment Modeling, cont.
Source Areas:
– Each WRAP state
– Pacific Off-shore Region
– The group of CENRAP states
– Remaining contiguous US East, including Gulf of Mexico
– Mexico
– Canada
6 Emissions Categories:
– Point (including stationary offshore, all inland point sources + Pacific
point)
• Point sources checked for assignment to correct state
– Anthropogenic Fires (WRAP agricultural fires and anthropogenic
prescribed fires)
– Total mobile (on-road, off-road, including planes, trains, ships in/near port,
off-shore shipping)
– Natural emissions (natural fire - WRAP region wild fires, non-federal
rangeland, natural prescribed fires, and wildland fire use only, biogenics)
– Elevated fire sources in other RPOs (VISTAS, CENRAP, and Canada fires)
– Everything else (area, all dust, fugitive ammonia, non-elevated fire sources
in other RPOs)