Transcript Collaboration with EECCA countries needed

Modelling and mapping of critical loads
of heavy metals and their exceedances
under the LRTAP Convention
Integrated Assessment of Air
pollution effects on
biodiversity
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg (www.mnp.nl)
Gert Jan Reinds (www.alterra.wur.nl)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Proposed Outline
• Integrated Assessment
• Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution
• “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air
pollution” to avoid adverse impacts
• Collaboration with EECCA countries needed !
• Examples of impacts from different air pollution
abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Outline
• Integrated Environmental Assessment
• Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution
• “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air
pollution” to avoid adverse impacts
• Collaboration with EECCA countries needed !
• Examples of impacts from different air pollution
abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Winds
Emissions
(driving forces and pressures)
(Atmosph.
Transport)
Deposition
(impacts on human health and
Ecosystems)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Source: Adapted
from “Pollution
Atmospherique”, 1999… (?)
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Integrated Environmental Assessment
Driving
Forces
Pressure
State
Impact
Policy response
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Approximative illustration of multi-pollutant multi-effect relationships
Pressures
Drivers
State
Impacts
Response
Energy
Single and
SO 2 emissions
S deposition
Critical loads
for acidification
Surface waters
NH 3 emissions
N deposition
Critical loads
for nitrogen
Terrestrial
eco systems
NO x emissions
O3 formation
Critical levels
for ozone
VOC emissions
Secondary
aerosols
Health
guidelines O3
PM emissions
Primary
particles
Life
expectancy
multiple
Agriculture
pollutant
CH 4 emissions
emission
Industrial
production
controls
Crops
Human health
Critical loads
of h. metals
CO 2 emissions
N 2O emissions
Radiative
forcing/GWP
HFC emissions
PFC emissions
SF 6 emissions
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Climate
Integrated Environmental Assessment (RAINS model)
Optimization
Economic Emission control
policies
activities
Environmental
targets
Agriculture
NH3 control
& costs
NH3 emissions
NH3 dispersion
Energy use
SO2 control
& costs
SO2 emissions
S dispersion
Critical loads
f. acidification
NOx control
& costs
NOx emissions
NOx dispersion
Critical loads f.
eutrophication
O3 formation
Critical levels
for ozone
Transport
NOx/VOC
control&costs
Solvents, fuels,
industry
VOC control
&
costs
Other activities
PM control
& costs
VOC emissions
Secondary
aerosols
Primary PM
emissions
Emission
control costs
Primary PM
dispersion
O3 Population
exposure
PM Population
exposure
Environmental
impacts
Scenario analysis
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol
on heavy
metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Source:
IIASA
Focus of this presentation
Driving
Forces
Impact
Pressure
State
Abatement Scenarios
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Outline
• Integrated Environmental Assessment
• Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution
• “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air
pollution” to avoid adverse impacts
• Collaboration with EECCA countries needed !
• Examples of impacts from different air pollution
abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Adverse environmental
impacts of air pollution
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Winds
Emissions
(driving forces and pressures)
(Atmosph.
Transport)
How much deposition
Is acceptable ?
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Source: Adapted
from “Pollution
Atmospherique”, 1999… (?)
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Acidification effects in Jizera mountains, including the need
for anticipated management and clearcutting
1976
1995
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
How much deposition is acceptable…
…to avoid adverse effects of air pollution
to the sustainability of our natural
environment ?:
The concept of critical loads !
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Outline
• Integrated Environmental Assessment
• Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution
• “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air
pollution” to avoid adverse impacts
• Collaboration with EECCA countries needed !
• Examples of impacts from different air pollution
abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Definition of critical loads and objectives
• In general:
– a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more
pollutants below which significant harmful effects on
specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur
according to present knowledge
• For heavy metals:
– The critical load of a heavy metal is the highest total metal
input rate (g ha-1 a-1) below which harmful effects on human
health and ecosystems will not occur in an infinite time
perspective, according to present knowledge
• Objective of the “critical load approach” in integrated
environmental assessment: Deposition should not exceed
critical loads to avoid harmful effects to a sustainable natural
environment. Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human
Well-being.
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well-being
Source: Millenium Ecosyst. Assessment
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.359.aspx.ppt#8
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Indicators of heavy metal impacts used to calculate critical loads
Source:
Slootweg J, Hettelingh J-P,
Posch M, Schütze G,
Spranger T, De Vries W,
Reinds GJ, Van ’t Zelfde M,
Dutchak S, Ilyin I (2007)
Water, Air and Soil Pollution:
Focus 7:371-377
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Outline
• Integrated Environmental Assessment
• Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution
• “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air
pollution” to avoid adverse impacts
• Collaboration with EECCA countries needed !
• Examples of impacts from different air pollution
abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Methodology for the computation of critical loads:
Steady State Mass Balance (SSMB)
For the comutation of
CL(M) = critical load of metal M
Mgu = Metal uptake
Mle = Metal leaching
Source: Reinds, 2008.
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Metal Uptake
• Metal uptake was computed as tree growth ×
metal content in wood.
• Metal content was obtained from the Mapping
Manual
• Forest growth was obtained from the EFISCEN
database for Europe and from published data
(e.g. Alexeyev, Markov & Birdsey 2004 for
Russia) for the other countries
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Critical concentrations and leaching
• Metal leaching was computed as critical metal
concentration × water flux
• Critical metal concentrations are listed in the
Mapping Manual as a function of pH and DOC
concentration class
• pH was obtained using soil type from the soil
map and additional soil profile data bases. DOC
was obtained using a transfer function as
suggested in the Mapping Manual
Source, Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Georeferenced information is needed as input to
the steady state mass balance equation
• Soil maps: (European Soil Data Base v2 polygon map 1:1 M for
Europe and Russia; FAO Soil map 1:5 M)
• Landcover Maps: LRTAP land cover map (100 m cells); Global
Land Cover 2000 map (1 km cells)
• Forest growth regions (EFISCEN, Russian Regions, EECCA
countries)
Map overlay yields 3.8 M units with forest or other natural
vegetation, 1.3 M of which > 1km2
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Maps of input parameters
Soil
LandUse
EMEP
Overlay
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Critical load of Cadmium to protect 95% of ecosystems
from adverse effects of Cd deposition
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Critical load of Mercury to protect 95% of ecosystems
from adverse effects of Hg deposition
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Critical load of lead to protect 95% of ecosystems
from adverse effects of Pb deposition
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Critical load to protect 95% of natural systems
Public health endpoints
Biological endpoints
Critical load
of Cadmium
5th percentile
CL(Cd) to protect
Ecosystems
(g ha-1 a-1)
5th percentile
CL(Cd) to protect
human health
(g ha-1 a-1)
Critical load
of lead
5th percentile
CL(Pb) to protect
Ecosystems
(g ha-1 a-1)
5th percentile
CL(Pb) to protect
human health
(g ha-1 a-1)
Critical load
of Mercury
5th percentile
CL(Hg) to protect
Ecosystems
(g ha-1 a-1)
5th percentile
CL(Hg) to protect
human health
(g ha-1 a-1)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Similar georeferenced input is required
for the computation of
critical loads for acidification
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Critical loads for acidification
Forest growth
CLmax(S)
BC deposition
BC weathering
m3.ha-¹.yr-¹
<2
2-4
4-6
>= 6
eq.ha-¹.yr-¹
< 200
200 - 400 eq.ha-¹.yr-¹
400 - 600
< 500
>= 600
500 -eq.ha-¹.yr-¹
1000
< 250
1000 -250
1500
- 500
500
- 1000
1500 ->=
2000
1000
>= 2000
Source: Reinds (2008)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Collaboration with EECCA experts
and scientists is required to review
and revise geographical data on
critical loads and model input data !
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Outline
• Integrated Environmental Assessment
• Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution
• “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to
avoid adverse impacts
• Collaboration with EECCA countries needed !
• Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement
alternatives (“scenarios”)
Example Scenarios:
• Current Legislation (CLE)
• Full Implementation of the Protocol (FI)
• Full Implementation of the Protocol plus Additional Measures
(FIAM)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Areas at risk of health or ecosystem effects in 2000 based on
Official Emission data incl. TNO adjustments
(depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow)
Area@risk
to Health
2000
Cd
(%)
Area@risk
to Health
2000
Pb
(%)
Area@risk
to Health
2000
Hg
(%)
Area@risk
of Ecotox.
2000
Cd
(%)
Area@risk
of Ecotox.
2000
Pb
(%)
Area@risk
of Ecotox.
2000
Hg
(%)
EU25
0.03
24.32
2.4
0.02
48.64
85.75
Europe
0.83
16.65
2.4
0.07
53.44
85.34
(excl.
EECCA)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Areas where deposition of lead and mercury
Exceed critical loads
(depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow)
At risk of lead deposition
At risk of mercury deposition
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Tentative results of the risk of the deposition of chromium, nickel,
copper,zinc, arsenic and selenium in Europe (excl. EECCA)
(depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow)
Scenario
Percentage of area in Europe at risk caused by exceedance of critical loads
of the following heavy metals:
Cr
Ni
Cu
Zn
As
Se
0.07
0.71
0.76
1.66
0
2.41
2020-CLE 0.08
0.40
0.44
1.06
0
1.09
2020-FI
0.01
0.21
0.34
1.06
0
0.94
2020FIAM
0.01
0.03
0.25
1.06
0
0.33
2000
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Conclusions and recommendations
• The effect oriented approach helps to set comprehensive
targets emission reductions to protect human health and
biodiversity and ecosystem functions
• Thus, critical loads were used to support the Oslo protocol
(1994) and Gothenburg protocol (1999) under the LRTAP
Convention
• Collaboration with experts and scientists of EECCA Parties to
the LRTAP Convention is needed to improve knowledge on
requirements for the protection of human health, biodiversity
and ecosystem fuctions against effects of air pollution
• Preliminar national data files and models can be obtained by
NFCs in EECCA countries from the Coordination Centre for
Effects of the ICP Modelling and Mapping.
• Collaborative projects between National Focal Centres in
EECCA countries and other institutions such as EMEP MSC-E,
MSC-W and the EMEP Centre for Integrated Environmental
Assessment Modelling (CIAM) is recommended.
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008
Further information and publications:
• Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE)
(www.mnp.nl/cce)
• International Cooperative Programme on
Modelling and Mapping
(www.icpmapping.org)
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce
Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008