Transcript Trends in Europe

ESPON Internal Seminar 2012
“Territorial Development Opportunities in Europe and its
Neighbourhood to Foster Global Competitiveness”
Parallel Workshop Session: Workshop 2.2
Territorial Factors for
Global Competitiveness and
Economic Growth
Stimulus map
Descontinuities in GDP per capita, 2008
• The sharpest divides are between Europe
(including Turkey) and North Africa, and between
Finland and Russia.
• However there is also an economic division within
Europe between west and east, a gap that also
separates off Greece and Cyprus.
• It is also notable that the discontinuity between the
Neighbourhood countries of North Africa and those
to the south of them across the Sahara is as great
again as the Europe / North Africa disparity.
• These divisions in economic wealth are paralleled
by divisions in demographic profiles.
• Whereas the demographic perspectives largely
follow the wealth divisions between east and west,
they show a reverse picture for the north-south
dimension.
• The southern neighbours are expected to
experience a population increase between 2000
and 2030 which goes well beyond the increases
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expected within EU27+IS+LI+NO+SW.
Workshop 2.2 – key questions for ESPON projects
1.
What are the main observations or conclusions from your project - for Europe, its
regions and cities - in relation to “economic development, innovation,
technological development, research trade flows, territorial specialisation and
profiles”?
Please select maximum 2 maps from your project and include maximum 5 bullet points that could illustrate
and synthesize this question.
Maximum use 3-4 slides for showing ESPON evidence on this question.
2. How do developments in Europe´s neighborhood influence the territorial
development in Europe and vice-versa (according to your mind / your ESPON
findings)?
Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question, as much as
possible based on your project results and on the case studies developed.
Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.
3. What opportunities and challenges exists for Europe and its neighbourhood for
increasing competitiveness through further cooperation and integration?
(according to your mind / your ESPON findings)?
Please include maximum 3 bullet points that could illustrate and synthesize this question.
Please use 1 slide to answer to this question.
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Trends in Europe
Hypothesis
• Activity rate is more important than unemployment rate for the evaluation of
territorial trends in Europe. Because it reveals the real potential of territory in
terms of labour forces surplus or deficits.
• Absolute count of active and employed people are more interesting than
relative ratio for a sound prediction of structural changes in a mid term
perspective (1999-2010)
• Thanks to HyperAtlas V2 and M4D core databse strategy, it is possible to
evaluate the trends 1999-2010 and the current situation
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Main discoveries
• Trends of active population 1999-2009 reveals a very strong increase in
Spain, Ireland, southern France, Northern Italy and at a less degree Benelux
and northern Europe. At the same time, we observe a very strong of available
labour force in Romania, Southern Italy, Germany, Baltic countries. As a
whole, an important move of active from east to west.
• Distribution of activity rate in 2009 is characterized by strong imbalances in
the use of available labour force. Maximum use of available labour force is
observed in northern and central Europe and minimum use in peripheral area
of southern and eastern Europe. We can therefore anticipate a baseline
scenario of increasing mobility of active from peripheral to core area.
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Europe´s neighborhood influence
Methodology for the identification of attractive an repulsive poles
Europe´s neighborhood influence
• Identification of relative growth pole
offers a good vision of the location
of main growing metropolitan
area in EU and neighborhood.
• Strong polarisations are observed
both inside and outside EU
because of global process of
metropolisation.
Opportunities for Europe
Hypothesis
•
Young Depency Rate (Pop. 0-14/ Pop 15-64) is the key strategic indicator to
evaluate the renewal of labour force in the next 30 years (2010-2040).
•
What are the potential complementarities with neighborhood ?
•
Are opportunities different toward east and south ?
•
What about education of labour force toward east and south ?
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Opportunities for Europe
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Opportunities for Europe
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Opportunities for Europe
Key discoveries
•
Theoretical possibilities of complementarities between North and South for
labour force renewal
BUT
•
Strong deficit of labour force to be expected in eastern neighborhood
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Competition with gulf coutries for labour force available in Middle East
•
Highest potentialities for EU in Maghreb and Turkey.
… IMPLIES STRONG COOPERATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION & RESEARCH !
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