Transcript Climate Change and Consequences in the Intra

Climate Change and Consequences in
the Intra-Americas Region(IAR)
Dr. Jorge E. González
NOAA-CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New York, NY
Dr. Moises Angeles Malaspina & Dr. Nathan Hosannah
Post-Docs, The City College of New York, New York, NY
Jhon Ibsen
Web Developer, The City College of New York, New York, NY
Dr Daniel E. Comarazamy
NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/SOCD, The City College of New York, New York, NY
Equisha Glenn
NOAA-CREST Fellow, The City College of New York, New York, NY
Pablo Ortiz
Mechanical Engineering Dept., The City College of New York, New York, NY
Coastal Environmental Research Group
cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu
Guiding Questions
• What is Caribbean climate?
• How is the CC changing?
• What are the regional, local, and societal
implications of these changes?
• How the CC will change in the future?
• What future research is needed?
Factors to be considered for climate studies
in the Intra-Americas Region
Sea Surface Temperature
Gamble et al., 2008
IAR Climate Overview
Bimodal Precipitation Trend:
o Early Rainfall: April - June
o Late Rainfall: Aug - Nov
Mid-Summer Drought (MSD)
–
–
–
Cause(s) for MSD variability is still
unknown
More pronounced in western
Caribbean
Potential link to Saharan dust
contribution
GPCP monthly precipitation data
Daily Accumulated Precipitation for the IAR
(mm/day)
o Dry Season: Dec - Mar
200
180
Precipitation 1979 to 2010
160
Precipitation 1979 to 1994
140
Precipitation 1995 to 2010
120
100
Mid-Summer Drought
80
60
Slight increase in LRS
precipitation within past
15 years
40
20
0
J
F
M
A
M
Months
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Precipitation in the Caribbean
–
–
–
Match global average changes
Annual and decadal variability
Related to SSTs
1) Angeles et al.,2010; 2) Magaña et al.,2009; 3) Gamble et al., 2008; 4) Comarazamy et al 2006; 5) Frich et al., 2002; 6) Peterson et al., 2002; 7) IPCC, 2007; 8) Spence et al., 2004;
9) Stephenson et al., 2007
Observed Caribbean Climatology
DRY SEASON
EARLY RAINFALL SEASON
LATE RAINFALL SEASON
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
SST observed climatology from Reynolds-Smith data, 1982-2003 for (a) DS, (b) ERS, (c) LRS and Climatological Rainfall
from CPC-Merged Analysis, 1979-2003 for (d) DS, (e) ERS and (f) LRS.
Aerosols and Caribbean Bi-Modal
Annual Aerosol Variation (NW Puerto Rico, 2003)
2.0
AOT (normalized to average)
RMS Smoothed Data plus
Annual & Semi-annual Fit
380 nm
440 nm
500 nm
675 nm
870 nm
1.5
1.0
0.5
01/01/03
04/02/03
07/02/03
Date
10/01/03
12/31/03
Guiding Questions
HOW IS THE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE
CHANGING?
Recent Detected Changes of SSTs in the IAR
IAR sensitive to global climate
changes
• Caribbean SSTs warming
similar to global averages
• Warming varies
throughout the region
0.015°C per year
Recent Detected Changes of SSTs in the IAR
Left-Daily Spatial Variability
Right-Daily Anomalies
SSTs Seasonal Trends (1982-2012)
Early Rainfall Season
Over the past 30 years:
 Warming (significant)
• Gulf Coast
• Northeast of South America
Late Rainfall Season
 Cooling
• Around coast of Florida
 Increasing trend in DS not
sufficient to motivate convection,
leads to drying trend
Dry Season
SSTs Seasonal Trends (1982-2012)
Early Rainfall Season
Late Rainfall Season
Regions of greatest warming have
high cross-correlation with
precipitation in that same area
• ERS – 0.78
• LRS – 0.79
Dry Season
Regional Changes in Upper Air Conditions
Horizontal Temp.
Vertical Temp.
Avg Trade Wind Magnitude
CLLJ
Large-scale temperature (˚C) and near surface (between the 1000-700mb pressure levels) wind magnitude
(m s-1) change in the Caribbean basin from 1955-59 to 2000-04. Calculated from the NCEP Reanalysis 2.5˚
resolution data averaged at 02 and 14 LST, the two closest times in the 4-hourly data to the local overnight
low and daytime high temperatures, during the 3-month Caribbean ERS (Comarazamy et al., 2011).
Guiding Questions
WHAT ARE THE REGIONAL, LOCAL, AND
SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS OF THESE
CHANGES?
Drought Index in the Caribbean Region
 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
 It is a statistical tool defined to monitor drought at a given time scale and rainfall
station. This index can also be used to monitor periods of anomalous wet events.
 3-month SPI: reflects short/medium moisture condition. In agriculture gives
an indication of Soil Moisture condition at the growing season.
SPI
> 2.0
Classification
Extremely wet
1.5 to 1.99
Very wet
1.0 to 1.49
Moderately wet
0 to 0.99
Mildly wet
0 to -0.99
Mild drought
-1 to -1.49
Moderate drought
-1.5 to -1.99
< -2.0
Severe drought
Extreme drought
Drought Index in the Caribbean Region

SPI 3 month window size for June 1994 shows severe
to extreme drought in Dominican Republic and Puerto
Rico.

Central America also have extreme drought, while the
northern Caribbean region is mildly to moderate wet.

Long term drought index in Dominican Republic show
periods of severe and extreme drought events.

Long term annual minimum SPI shows an increasing
trend, which means slight drought reduction but still
in the category of moderate to severe drought.
Monthly SPI
Minimum Annual SPI
CMAP coordinate 18.25oN, 71.25oW South East DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
0.0215/year
Extreme drought
June 1994
1980 - 2014
Extreme drought
Nov 2009
Heat Index – a measure of heat-stress danger

From 1948 to 1990, Dominican Republic shows a
HI increasing trend of 0.059oF per year.

Dominican Republic’s heat index indicates a fast
increasing trend from the year 1990 to 2014
(0.195 oF/year).

Long-term HI trend and moving average also
shows the HI increasing tendency.
safe
NCEP coordinate
17.5oN,
70oW
caution
South West DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
0.1915oF/year
Monthly
Maximum
0.059oF/year
1948 - 2014
high caution
Impacts of Climate Change in Energy Infrastructure
in Tropical Coastal Regions
• Energy per capita required
– Energy activity is linked to climate change
in several ways.
– There is a direct relationship between the
energy required for air conditioning
systems and the environmental surface air
temperature and humidity conditions.
Impacts of Climate Change in Energy Infrastructure
in Tropical Coastal Regions
 The HVAC is the required to reduce the temperature and humidity to comfort levels.
 HVAC is increasing at a rate 0.24GW per year, which correspond with the long-term
increasing trend of the real total electric consumption per capita.
HVAC for Dominican Republic (1980-2013)
NCEP coordinate 17.5oN, 70oW South West DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Total Energy Consumption for
Dominican Republic (1980-2013)
The world bank data
What are the potential
consequential effects of the
observed Caribbean climate
changes in local ecosystems?
"El agua se lo llevó todo": el misterio de los
lagos crecientes del Caribe. BBC-Espanol,
1/16.2014
Rising Tide Is a Mystery That Sinks Island Hopes – by
New York Times – Jan. 11, 2014
Lakes Enriquillo & Azuei Growth
Lake Enriquillo/Azuei growth -> Local manifestations of Caribbean SSTs trends
• Lakes in the Enriquillo Basin have
experienced significant surface area
changes over ~15yrs
• Surface area coverage of lakes has
more than doubled since 2004
• The situation has reached critical levels
affecting communities, biodiversity,
international trade, and the local
economy
• A hydro-met hypothesis
• Increased SSTs -> Increased moisture > Increased pcp (vertical and
horizontal) and runoff -> Increase in
lake area
• Other hypothesis include:
– Earthquakes cause aquifers to feed lakes at
increased rates; LCLU changes increase
surface runoff into lakes; Increased
frequency of tropical storm activity
21
Lake Enriquillo/Azuei Area Increase 2000 - 2015
135
325
300
140
375
Lake Enriquillo Surface Area (km^2)
350
250
225
200
125
175
120
125
115
110
50
Lake Azuei Surface Area (km^2)
130
275
150
100
Lake Enriquillo Surface Area (km^2)
Lakes Area Changes as Observed from Satellites
Lake Azuei Surface Area (km^2)
75
Mar-14
Jan-13
Dec-11
Nov-10
Oct-09
Sep-08
Aug-07
Jul-06
May-05
Apr-04
Mar-03
Feb-02
Jan-01
Dec-99
Nov-98
Sep-97
Aug-96
Jul-95
Jun-94
May-93
Apr-92
Mar-91
Jan-90
Dec-88
Nov-87
Oct-86
Sep-85
Aug-84
Jul-83
May-82
Year
23
Lakes Area Changes & Precipitation
(through July 2015)
24
Ground Observations (Barahona/NCDC)
25
Why is the Surface Area of the Lakes Changing Dramatically?
A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis
Evaporation
increase
over the sea
Precipitation
increase
Runoff increase
Lake level
rise
Increase of fresh
water production
Lake evaporation
decrease
Increased precipitation
Reduction in
evaporation
•
•
Increase in
orographic water
production
Increase in
Lake surface
area
Increased moisture in the lake area due to increased SSTs surrounding the lake basin
Increasing fresh water production in the area due to increased horizontal rain produced mainly by
orographic cloud formation in the surrounding cloud montane forests
A combination of these factors is leading to Total Lake Surface Area increase
Lakes Enriquillo & Azuei Growth
A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis Tested with Atmospheric Modeling:
Results for Differences in Key Variables
Total surface precipitation and Total liquid water content between 700-1500 m
April 1995 and 2003
Modeling grids showing horizontal resolution
of each.
Averaged surface wind (vectors) with vertical motions (contours) and Total liquid water
content along cross-section at 18.25 N Lat.
A Hydro-Meteorology Hypothesis Tested with Atmospheric Modeling:
Results for Differences in Key Variables
Total surface precipitation and Total liquid water content between 700-1500 m
April 2003 and 2012
Modeling grids showing horizontal resolution
of each.
Averaged surface wind (vectors) with vertical motions (contours) and Total liquid water
content along cross-section at 18.25 N Lat.
Guiding Questions
HOW WILL CARIBBEAN CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE FUTURE?
METHODOLOGY FOR FUTURE PREDICTIONS
GCM
(250km)
Greenhouse gas
concentration
Climatological
Periods
Atmospheric Component
Oceanic
Component
Air Temp
Rel. Humid
Wind speed
SST
1996-2010
2011-2025
2026-2040
2041-2055
2056-2069
2070-2084
2085-2098
NCEP Data
1998
RCM
(<5km)
RCM OUTPUT
Air temperature
Wind speed
rainfall
Methodology for prediction of future climate changes in the IAR; originally presented in Angeles et al. 2007.
FUTURE CARIBBEAN CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATED BY GCM
Climate change difference future climate (2041-2055) - climatology (1996-2010)
What may be the future of the lakes?
Annual Volume added to the lake
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
years
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
V (km3)
4.678
4.994
5.310
5.626
5.942
6.258
6.574
6.890
7.206
7.522
7.838
8.154
8.470
8.786
9.102
9.418
H (m)
-34
-32.4
-31.5
-30.6
-29.8
-28.9
-28.1
-27.3
-26.5
-25.7
-24.9
-24.2
-23.4
-22.7
-22.0
-21.3
A (km2)
324.3
351.9
366.2
379.1
390.8
401.5
411.2
420.0
428.1
435.5
442.3
448.5
454.2
459.6
464.5
469.1
Year
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
years
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
V (km3)
9.734
10.050
10.366
10.682
10.998
11.314
11.630
11.946
12.262
12.578
12.894
13.210
13.526
13.842
H (m)
-20.6
-19.9
-19.2
-18.5
-17.9
-17.2
-16.6
-16.0
-15.3
-14.7
-14.1
-13.5
-12.9
-12.3
0.316 (km3)
A (km2)
473.5
477.6
481.4
485.1
488.6
492.1
495.4
498.6
501.8
505.0
508.2
511.4
514.6
517.8
Year
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
years
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
V (km3)
14.158
14.474
14.790
15.106
15.422
15.738
16.054
16.370
16.686
17.002
17.318
17.634
17.950
18.266
H (m)
-11.7
-11.1
-10.6
-10.0
-9.4
-8.9
-8.3
-7.8
-7.2
-6.7
-6.2
-5.6
-5.1
-4.6
A (km2)
521.1
524.5
527.9
531.5
535.2
538.9
542.9
546.9
551.1
555.5
560.0
564.7
569.6
574.7
What’s next?
• In-depth analysis of present climate change consequences
(i.e. precip; fluxes).
• Future, high resolution climate projections are needed to
better understand local consequences, and in specific to
the Lakes region.
• Better understanding of extreme weather events including
variability of cyclonic activity in regional and local scales.
• Better understanding of the role of aerosols in future
climate (see next slide).
• Better understanding of how local land use changes
interact with a regional changing climate.
• Specific, resource assessment (water, energy) as functions
of these observed and projected changes.
Precipitation and Aerosols Interactions
Summer 2015
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/sju/analysis/models/geos5_AOT.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
Precipitation and Aerosols Interactions
Summer 2015
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rtimages/sju/analysis/models/geos5_AOT.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
Climate Change and Consequences in the Intra-Americas Region(IAR)
Questions & Comments
Dr. Jorge E. González
NOAA-CREST Professor of Mechanical Engineering, The City College of New York, New
York, NY
[email protected]
Coastal Environmental Research Group
cuerg.ccny.cuny.edu