Transcript Population Growth

Unit II: Fundamentals
of Population
What is Population Geography?
• Demography: The statistics relating to
population geography
• Population Geography: How people
live, how they interact with one another,
how they use the land, what pressure
on resources exist, and what the future
may bring; answers questions of
where? And why there?
Satellite Monitoring of Artificial Light
Make note of the “Developed World”
Key Issues in Population Geography
What are the Issues?
1. Population growth (esp. in
developing world)
2. Food supply
3. Health
4. Status of women
5. Migration
Elements of Population Geography
Population and space
1. Humanity has always been
unevenly distributed over the land
2. Contrasts between crowded cities
and empty reaches have
intensified during the 20th c.
3. In technologically advanced
countries, people tend to cluster
in cities and towns
Population Distribution & Density
1. Distribution of population describes
the locations on Earth's surface where
individuals or groups live
2. Dot maps efficiently show distribution
of populations
World Population Distribution Dot Map
Arithmetic Density
• Arithmetic Density –divide the area of
a country by the total population; a
numerical average
a) Not accurate because it does not
include clustering within a country
b)Does not represent empty areas
Arithmetic Density
Physiological Density
• Physiologic density - number of people
per unit of agriculturally productive land
a) More useful than arithmetic density
b) Gives the real situation in terms of
cultivable land and the growing
pressure on it
c) Excludes agriculturally nonproductive land
Physiological Density
• Reflects the “burden of dependency” the proportion of persons under 15 and
over 65 who are economically
dependent on working members aged
15 to 64
Physiological Density
Physiologic Population
Density
Luxor, Egypt
Egypt’s arable lands
are along the Nile
River Valley.
Moving away from the
river a few blocks, the
land becomes sandy
and wind-sculpted.
Global and National Patterns
East Asia
1. Contains more than a 1/4 of the
world's population
2. China alone has a pop. of nearly 1.6
billion
3. Most people live along coastlines,
river basins and lowlands
4. Dominant activity is farming
Japan
a) Very limited farmlands
b) High population density
c) Prosperous and well-fed people
because of:
(1) High technological prowess
(2) Industrial capacity
(3) Money-producing exports
South Asia
1. Ganges River in India has one of the
great concentrations of people on
Earth
2. Bangladesh
a) More than 120 million people in area size of
Iowa
b) Nearly all people are farmers
3. India
a) Growing faster than china (1.5 Billion
people)
Europe
1. Contains about 700 million people
2. Population distribution as compared
to Asia
a) Large populations found in countries near
coal fields
b) Dense populations in mountainous, rugged
countries
c) More people live in cities
d) Rural countryside more open and not as
populated
North America
1. Not as densely populated as Europe
and Asia, more spread out
2. Rural areas less populated
3. Like Europe, population concentrated
in major cities
Other regions
1. South America and Australia seem to
have space remaining for pop. Growth
and distribution
2. Pockets of Africa are very dense while
other parts are sparsely populated
due to physical barriers
a) Nile Valley and Delta has more than 66
million inhabitants
b) Areas around deserts not as populated
Some Generalizations
• 90% of the world’s population is
above the equator, 66% in the midlatitudes (includes US and Europe)
• 50% of the population lives on 5%
of the available land.
• 66% of the world’s populations live
within 300 miles of the ocean.
Population
World Population Growth
Through
History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death —The Plague
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
World Pop. was steady until the agricultural/
scientific revolutions – then it exploded
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Population Growth--the Problem
• Food Supply
• Status of Women
• Health Issues--not enough
nutrients in food, lack of medical
help
• Environmental Issues-deforestation, erosion,
technology/chemicals
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Global Population Growth Is
Driven by Developing Countries.
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
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Sparks to Population Growth
•
•
•
•
•
Agricultural Revolution
Industrial Revolution
Urbanization and Sanitation
Advances in Medicine
Conquest and Colonization of New
Lands
• Developing Countries
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Checks on Population Growth
• Epidemics and Plagues
--Bubonic Plague- 1348-1350, 1/4 of
the population killed, England
loses 4 million people
• Famines
–Potato Famine in Ireland
–India and China
• Wars
• Natural Decrease
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Demographic Equations
Growth Rate (%) = Birth Rate – Death Rate
+/– Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase (%)
Population Doubling Time (yrs.) =
70  Rate of Natural Increase
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Total Fertility Rate - the average number
of children a women will have in her
childbearing years. This rate varies from
just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7
(Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate
(the rate at which a population neither grows nor
shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed
countries this rate should be higher to account for so
many children not reaching childbearing age.
Palestinian
Territories
Fertility
Rate
1975-1980
7.39
1980-1985
7.00
1985-1990
6.43
1990-1995
6.46
1995-2000
5.99
2000-2005
5.57
Total
fertility
rate
U.K.
1975-1980
1.72
1980-1985
1.80
1985-1990
1.81
1990-1995
1.78
1995-2000
1.70
2000-2005
1.66
Africa
Fertility
Rate
1975-1980
6.60
1980-1985
6.45
1985-1990
6.11
1990-1995
5.67
1995-2000
5.26
2000-2005
4.97
Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per
thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much
as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality
tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.
G. Places With the Lowest Total
Fertility Worldwide
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
China, Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Slovakia
0.84
0.94
1.12
1.17
1.20
Slovenia
1.22
Republic of Korea
1.23
Republic of Moldova
1.23
Bulgaria
1.24
Belarus
1.24
Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include
China
H. Diverging Trends in
Average number of children per woman
Fertility Reduction
6.4
6.4
5.7
5.4
8.5
6.2
5.3
5.2
4.3
3.3
3.1
2.4
Egypt
India
2.5
2.1
Indonesia
Iran
1970-1975
Pakistan
Turkey
2000-2005
Many developing countries have cut population growth
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Yemen
I. Trends in Life Expectancy,
Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years
by Region
82
80
77
76
72
65
67
75
65
49
Africa
Asia
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
2000-2005
More Developed
Regions
2045-2050
L.E increase vary with region –
greatest gains in the developing nations
World
Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area.
U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2
Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable
(farmable) land.
World and Country
Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's
surface!
Total: 7 billion on planet as of Oct. 20, 2011
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION
•
•
•
•
•
POPULATION COUNTRY
East Asia 1.9 billion
South Asia1.7 billion
Europe
825 million
SE Asia 600million
Brazil
246million
China
India
U.S.
Indonesia
POPULATION
1.548 billion
1.349 billion
330 million
310 million
D. Projected Population Change,
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
by
Country
Greatest increases are slated for Africa and the Arab world, while Europe and
China remain stagnant
G. Places With the Lowest Total
Fertility Worldwide
China, Macao Special Administrative Region
China, Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region
Ukraine
Czech Republic
Slovakia
0.84
0.94
1.12
1.17
1.20
Slovenia
1.22
Republic of Korea
1.23
Republic of Moldova
1.23
Bulgaria
1.24
Belarus
1.24
Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include
China
Birth Control Programs
• One family/one child policies
– Female infanticide
– Social compensation fees
•
•
•
•
•
Sterilization
Loss of status
Termination healthcare/food coupons
Free birth control
Increased literacy
K. Age Distribution of the
Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005
World’s Population
Millions
Less Developed
Regions
More Developed
Regions
Age
Male
300 200 100
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
Female
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
0 100 200 300 20-24
15-19
10-14 300
5-9
0-4
Male
100
Female
100
300
Pyramids for the LDCs and HDCs are vastly
different
World Death Rates
• Infectious diseases
– HIV/AIDS
– SARS
• Degenerative diseases
– Obesity
– Tobacco use
• Epidemiology
• Epidemiological transition
Adults and Children Living with AIDS,
2004
Rates of Natural Increase
Doubling Time = 70 / Rate of Increase
Rate of
Increase
(%)
Doubling
Time (yrs.)
Example
(1998)
0.50
0.60
140
120
Ireland
United States
1.00
70
China
2.00
3.50
35
20
Costa Rica
Yemen
Higher rate of increase = shorter doubling
time (inverse relationship)
50
2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16
centuries (1650)
1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs.
(1820) …
2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs.
(>6 billion currently)
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Doubling Times
The doubling time is the number of years
before a population will be twice as large
as it is today.
World = 50
U.S. = 34
MDC = 543
LDC = 40
Honduras = 22
Belize = 19
Denmark = 700
Russia = never?
Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model
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60
1. Stage One Growth
• Pre-Industrial
economy –
Crude death rate
and birth rate
fluctuate freely
due mainly to
famine, but also
war and disease
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2. Stage Two Growth
• Early Industrial
Economy Industrialization
leads death rates
down w/better food
access due to
agricultural
advances, while
birth rate level off
at a stable rate
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3. Stage Three Growth
• Developed Industrial
Economy - Birth
rates plummet along
with death rates as
overall population
climbs.
• Most people survive
to old age so no
need to replace with
babies
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4. Stage Four Growth
• Developed Economies - The postindustrial economy sees birth and
death rates converging as
population growth levels off and
stabilizes.
• Nations reach replacement fertility –
2.1 children per couple
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Demographic
Transition Theory
4 Stages:
1. High Birth Rate, High Death Rate
2. High Birth Rate, Declining Death
Rate
3. Declining Birth Rate, Low Death
Rate
4. Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate
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Demographic Transition
Model
• Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural)
– Crude birth/death rate high
– Fragile, but stable, population
• Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine)
– Lower death rates
– Infant mortality rate falls
– Natural increase very high
• Stage three (attitudes change)
– Indicative of richer developed countries
– Higher standards of living/education
– Crude birth rate finally falls
• Stage four
– Crude birth/death rates low
– Population stable
– Populations aging
Problems with the
Demographic Transition Model
• based on European experience, assumes all countries will
progress to complete industrialization
• many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without
increase in wealth
• on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage
3
opulation Shift
Overpopulation
• When consumption of
natural resources by
people outstrip the ability
of a natural region to
replace those natural
resources.
Jean Antoine
Condorcet
(1743 – 1794)
• predicted that innovation,
resulting increased wealth, and
choice would provide food and
resources in the future and lead to
fewer children per family
• believed that society was
perfectable
Thomas Malthus
• Food Production increases linearly
while population increases
geometrically— i.e. the world will not
have enough food to support itself
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Malthus cont…
• But wait! Technology Intervenes
• Is Malthus wrong for the future?
– A problem we will never
escape--population will outdo
technology
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Thomas Malthus on
Population
An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798
Malthus, responding to
Condorcet, predicted
population would outrun
food supply, leading to a
decrease in food per
person.
300
250
200
Population
150
Food
100
50
Assumptions
• Populations grow
exponentially.
• Food supply grows
arithmetically.
• Food shortages and chaos
inevitable.
0
1
2
3
Food
2
4
8
16
4
Population
2
4
16
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Population J-Curve
Population and the
Environment
I=PxAxT
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Population-influenced environmental problems:
•
Global Warming
• Habitat Loss / Endangered Species
• Resource Depletion
• Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.
pulation and Resource
nsumption
Population Policy:
Making National Decisions
The Population Bomb!
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What is Population a policy?
• The decisions made
by a national gov. to
alter growth rates
through legal and
social means
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Tools for Population goals
• Education & Propaganda
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China’s Propaganda
Posters
Carry out family planning
Implement the basic national
policy
Do a good job in family planning
to promote economic
development
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Financial incentives
• Parents can be
rewarded or punished
through taxes, tuition
or housing as in
China’s One Child
Policy
• Many countries are
trying this some to
boost their
populations, others to
decrease it.
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Women’s Approach
• By empowering
LDC women to
financial
success, cycles
of large families
can sometimes
be broken.
• A common U.N
strategy in Africa
84
Family Planning
• Through Public Health
Services, counseling,
contraception and
even abortion can be
made available.
• These programs have
a mixed record based
on cultural values
85
Foreign Aid
• Financial and
technical aid are
often made available
by the U.N or MDCs.
• Problems arise when
money or the
programs
themselves are
discontinued
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Coercion
• Enforced
sterilization or
abortion are rarely
successful and
often have the
opposite effect.
• India’s enforced
sterilization in the
1970s was a
disaster
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