Transcript Findlay

Upward and onward
A study of Scots out-migration
from a global city
Allan Findlay, Donald Houston,
Colin Mason, David McCollum
and Richard Harrison.
Research context
ESRC Scottish Demography Programme.
ESRC RES – 342-25-009
ONS Longitudinal Study: 30048A
Background




Traditional flows of young, talented individuals
from periphery to economic core regions.
London as a key global city.
South East England (including London) as the
UK’s ‘escalator region’ – Fielding (1992),
Champion (2004).
Transients and the global city – Conradson and
Latham (2005).
Research aims:



Investigating the factors behind the declining
Scots born population of London.
Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots
in South East England with other groups and
places.
Exploring return migration from the South East
to Scotland.
Scots leave London
Scots born population of London and the South East
1991
2001
% change
Greater London
113,117
108,602
-4%
South East
including London
301,586
261,373
-13%
South East
excluding London
188,469
152,771
-19%
Location
Source: CASWEB census dissemination unit.
Migration from Scotland to Greater London and the South East, 1991 and 2001
1991
2001
% change
7,041
7,529
+7%
Location
Greater London
SE excl London
7,722
7,525
Source: UK National Census one year migration data.
-3%
Migration flows from London to Scotland, selected years.
1985
1991
1995
2001
Year
2005
Total flow
8,200
Source: NHSCR
5,579
7,766
6,418
8,235
Scots on the escalator
Data relating to proportions of the English and Scottish born populations of England in socio-economic
groups 1 and 2 at the 2001 census.
% of population
in socio-economic
group 1 (higher
managerial &
professional)
% of population
in socio-economic
group 2 (lower
managerial &
professional)
% of population
in socio-economic
groups 1 & 2
Scots resident in
SE
21.67
35.09
56.76
Scots resident
elsewhere in
England
15.00
30.92
45.92
English resident
in SE
13.90
29.13
43.03
English resident
elsewhere in
England
9.57
24.38
33.95
Population
Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study
Continuing career gains from
migration to the South East
Occupational mobility of Scottish and English born residents of England 1991-2001.
Population
Occupational mobility into groups 1-2
(in %)*
Scots resident in SE
25.85
Scots resident elsewhere in England
20.66
English resident in SE
21.95
English resident elsewhere in England
17.84
Residents of England overall
18.98
Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study
*expressed as a percentage of all people in each row of the table.
Variables tested
Pearson Chi-square
value
Significant at 0.01 the
level?
Place of birth versus
occupational into mobility
groups 1-2
20.954
Yes
Place of residence versus
occupational mobility into
groups 1-2
325.541
Yes
Place of birth versus place
of residence.
44.483
Yes
Log linear modelling of occupational
mobility


Once place of residence is included, additional
variance is explained by place of birth.
A third significant effect is evident involving
place of birth and place of residence.
So why are Scots leaving?
Not in retirement but in early career
Age structure of Scots returnees from SE (including London) by destination 2001.
Age
cohort
All
Scotland
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Aberdeen
Northern
rural
Scotland
Other
council
areas
0-14
11.56
7.25
11.09
12.17
10.65
13.28
15-29
33.30
44.40
4 0.27
41.27
25.03
30.45
30-44
32.65
34.35
35.26
34.39
29.53
32.45
45-59
13.42
9.29
8.66
5.29
22.28
13.36
60-74
6.89
3.56
3.34
3.70
10.10
7.92
75+
2.18
1.15
1.37
3.17
2.41
2.94
.
Source: Calculated from special tabulations provided by GROS
Propensity to return


No relationship by NS-SeC.
Strong relationship by education level.
Destination selectivity
by class and education
% of total
Proportion of return migrants from SE in NS-SeC 1
and 2
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Scotland
overall
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Aberdeen
Northern
rural
Scotland
Other
council
areas
Returnees to
% of total
Proportion of return migrants from SE qualified to
degree level
80
60
40
20
0
Scotland
overall
Edinburgh
Glasgow
Aberdeen
Returnees to
Northern
rural
Scotland
Other
council
areas
Attitudes to return

Educated Scots more likely than other skilled
immigrants in South East to return to area of
origin?
Likelihood of return to area of origin, degree qualified in migrants in SE.
Scots
Other immigrants
Possibly
31.0%
26.3%
Definitely
17.2%
13.2%
Total
Source: authors’ survey
48.2%
39.5%
Response
Map showing location of the 4
survey areas; Lambeth, Merton,
Oxford and Milton Keynes.
Conclusions




Declining Scots population of South East
England despite continued attraction of career
opportunities in South East.
Increasing migration (including returnees) to
Scotland from the South East.
Many returnees are young, highly educated and
in active employment.
Need for re-theorisation of service class
migration in relation to global cities.