Transcript Opportunities and potentials after the referendum

"Opportunities and potentials after
the referendum: Borders, benefits
and bridges"
ESRC Research Seminar Series: 'Close Friends'?
Assessing the Impact of Greater Scottish Autonomy
on the North of England
Seminar 3: Competitive Advantage or
Collaboration: Economic Development Issues
Paternoster Row, Carlisle, University of Cumbria,
27th June 2014
Or:
The threats and dangers
of separation!
Borders?
Structure
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Why independence?
SWOT or SWOT?
Theory
Treasury/Home Office/...
Alternative visions
Strategies
Spillovers, collaboration and cooperation
Summary
Why independence
Referendum => debates and discussion
• Explosion of interest across country
• Huge range of issues, opinions and proposals
• Means debate about : “ What sort of Scotland
do we want?”
• Apart from Project Fear, Better Together, No
Thanks, about what possible cf. what
costs/obstacles/threats
• Generates and encourages different mindsets,
potentials, scenarios explored
Theory and understanding
• Networking, partnership working, coherent
support
• Triple and quadruple helix
• Keys to success:
• approach adopted by the ‘zone’ authority to
select, assemble and develop the zone;
public ownership and resources.
• nature of the sites assembled;
• development strategy of the ‘zone’ authority
• promotion and marketing arrangements for
the ‘zone’
Context and scale
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Theories of borders ...
Importance of being unimportant
But also of being neglected
Focus on/in region, which region, which
nation?
• Uniqueness not appreciated outwith area?
• Who to blame? Influence?
A scary border? EU/Non-EU
Sami: the social entrepreneur
Dark Star
• Prof Tony Travers, LSE: “London is the dark star of the
economy, inexorably sucking in resources, people and
energy. Nobody quite knows how to control it.”
• Vince Cable’s depiction of London sucking the life
blood out of the rest of the UK nothing new, but then
there is nothing new coming from the Westminster
parties that offers a realistic alternative. They are not
promising to reverse the gravitation to London of jobs,
income, wealth and, most significantly, power, never
mind having credible policies or strategies to boost the
rest of the UK.
• A fundamental challenge to the over-dominant centre
is needed for all our sakes, a countervailing centre of
activity and hope.
Scotland does well
but London dominates
Loss of RDAs in English regions
London’s gain
Most do better than expected, especially
Scotland
so cohesion important
Scottish
Enterprise
Areas
Plans for the Borders
• Borderlands
• Competing (conflicting?) agenda within
region, regions, nations?
• Lessons from Interreg?
• Limitations and constraints
• Dialogue is good
• Recognised and resourced in Operational
Programmes?
Plans
• Investment in research, development and innovation
creates the foundations for new businesses and new
jobs. We are starting to harness the jobs potential of a
sustainable energy policy. Scotland also has strong
chemical and life sciences industries creating
opportunities for research into alternative technologies
and green chemistry.
• Prioritising great quality food production, chemical
sciences, medical and life science, construction and
engineering, tourism and sports, shipbuilding and the
space industry, digital opportunities and creativity,
textiles and design, and energy.
Plans II
• Exports: based on oil services and whisky on sales and distribution
channel development
• Renewables: realising the economic opportunities by commercialising
new generation technologies such as wave and tidal power, for global
markets, including developing co-investment models
• Frankfurt of the North: support for the financial services sector
where long term growth opportunities exist, including the global
growth markets for fund management
• Growth Sectors: strategies to build competitive advantage in a range
of other sectors where global growth niches exist, including tourism,
transport, food and drink, creative industries, life sciences,
universities and healthy ageing
• Infrastructure, human capital, innovation, entrepreneurship, taxation
policies and strategies
Plans III
• Optimising the economic value of natural resources in
fishing, land, oil and gas, renewables, sea bed, food,
whisky and forestry taking account of environmental
concerns
• Moving in favour of independent businesses and away
from corporations
• Moving in favour of manufacturing
• Diversifying sectors to make them less reliant on small
numbers of purchasers
• Pursuing smart specialisation wherever possible
• Making diversification of the economy and increase in
manufacturing a specific goal
• More cooperative and mutual businesses a specific goal
• Increasing recognition of wider benefits of local sourcing
and local ownership
Next few slides from :
South of Scotland Economic Perspective
November 2013
Scottish Enterprise
Scottish Borders Council
Dumfries & Galloway Council
South Region Summary
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Employment rate – 70.8%
ILO Unemployment rate – 7.1%
Claimant count unemployment rate – 3.5%
Working population annual average growth rate – 0%
An aging population
Lower rate of business starts – but lots of tiny business
Few big employers, and the most of the biggest are in the public
sector
Disproportionately fewer medium sized businesses
10 year annual average GVA growth – 0.9%
Productivity Growth 0.6% (GVA per head 10 year annual average
growth)
GVA per worker (real prices) - £32,963 – significantly lower than
Scotland/UK
South Region – Key Messages
• Structure (business size / business type) of regional economy leads
to
– relatively low GVA per head and productivity
• Significant lack of “business growth”
– micro to small; small to medium; medium to big
• Dependence on the primary sector (significant CAP impact)
• Importance of food & drink (added value?) products and tourism
(particular market segments/sectors)
• Service sector driving Scottish growth, but under-represented in
the South
• Niche “Products” – eg luxury textiles; specialist foods;
heritage/cultural/activity tourism
• Aging population, retirement location? Significant disposable
wealth.
Sustainable Economic Growth
– Key Issues:
Building a “Sustainable” South…..
• Infrastructure & connectivity
• Sustainable communities
• Building on economic & environmental assets
• Public/private investment in economy
• Support to exploit identified opportunities
• Encouraging businesses with capacity and ambition to grow
• Business diversification / specialisation
• Skills development & retention
• Joined-up & self-sustaining approach
Summary and agenda
• Change is here, ongoing and stimulating
• Opportunities to build on strengths and
potentials
• Institutions, resources, enterprise and
enterprises
• Dialogue and plans
• Wider contexts still dominate but can make it
better than status quo