Transcript Plenary Session 1 - Impacts of the economic crisis on

ESPON 2013 Internal Seminar
Territorial Evidence for Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 and Territorial Agenda 2020
4-5 December 2013 -Vilnius, Lithuania
Impacts of the economic crisis on migration in Europe
A.P. Russo (URV)
STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION
• Description of main migration patterns before
and after the global financial crisis
• Discussion of drivers and barriers to workforce
mobility
• The territorial effects of migration
• Perspectives for the future
• Challenges for EU territorial policy
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Net Migration rates
All age groups, ESPON space, yearly av.
2001-07
GLOBAL SHIFT OF POPULATION
FROM EAST/NORTH TO
SOUTH/WEST
A wider ‘attraction area’ in the
Western Mediterranean
Some MEGAs among the
strongest attractors, as well as
second tier metro regions
Most other major urban regions
in the EU core show a moderate
attraction capacity
Moderate to severe population
loss in remote regions
Relative population growth in
more densely populated regions
within national systems
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MIGRATION BY AGE GROUPS 2001-2007
• Three cohorts of populations hinting at different motivations for
mobility and territorial effects:
• Mid-career migrants (25 to 49 y.o.)
• Economic, quality of place-related drivers central
• Core regions, (some) metro areas, the Western Mediterranean favoured
• Pre-employment migrants (16 to 24 y.o.)
• Opportunity-driven, social capital, short transits
• National capital, second tier and university cities, ‘leisurely’ places
favoured
• Late career, pre-retirement migrants (50 to 64 y.o.)
• Quality of life and environmental amenities as main drivers
• Intermediate and rural regions close to large cities, ‘warm’ and cheap
regions favoured
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POST-CRISIS MIGRATION PATTERS
• General slow-down of migration trends
• Change in migratory balances in some countries
• Some in-migration countries (e.g. Western Med Arc) in 2001-07 have
become net exporters of migration in 2008-10
• Strongest welfare countries in Western Europe have strengthened their inmigration profiles
• Regional divergence accentuated?
• ‘Return’ migration
• Harshening of out-migration in some countries (e.g. Baltic Sea
Region)
• Gender and age groups unbalances deepened
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Migration profiles, 2007-2013
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DRIVERS AND TERRITORIAL EFFECTS OF MIGRATION
• Drivers of migration: (comparative) economic situations, but
also...
• Different forms of territorial capital explain 60% of the overall variation in
net migration scoresz
• ‘Pure’ economic drivers are likely to have gone back to be the most
relevant in the post-crisis period
• Boosters / barriers to mobility in the ‘policy black box’
• The territorial effects of mobility
• Regions with low GDP / high employment / poor territorial capital
endowments have been ‘source’ of migration in 2001-07; however this
has not dampened economic activity in 2008-11
• Highly attractive regions had a more torrid downturn in subsequent years
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• TRENDS
Persisting
shift of population
PERSPECTIVES FOR THE
FUTURE
• from NE to SW
• from rural to urban areas
• From the periphery to the core
• CHALLENGES
‘Brain drain’
Pressure on metropolitan
areas
Ageing and gender
disequilibria in rural regions
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PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE (CONT)
POLICY LEVERS
Locally, may enhance
attractiveness in one region
(with external effects on
competing regions and
sending regions)
At EU level, may alter the
distribution of migration
drivers to ‘steer’ migration
trends towards desired
objectives
MOBILITY DRIVERS
•
•
•
•
•
Economic
Territorial
Antropic
Social
Etc.
MIGRATION TRENDS
Regions affected
unevenly by migration
flows and other
mobilities
FEEDBACK EFFECTS
Population movements in and out of regions change
regional characteristics driving migration
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INTEGRATING MIGRATIONS IN THE EU TERRITORIAL STRATEGY
• Migration policies as place-based, no ‘one size fits all’ but…
• Regions that become specialist in one form of mobility less resilient
to external shocks  Consistency and coherence of regional / local
efforts?
• Positive effects of human mobility are registered not only in
destinations but also in origin regions  ‘partnerships’ between
regions?
• Non work-related mobility can (also) produce positive externalities in
attractive regions  (some forms of) tourism as a lever of
convergence?
• What role for the EU?
• Migrations matter for smart, inclusive, sustainable development ….
• … but also for territorial cohesion objectives!
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