Transcript FSNWG September Update 24_09_2015

2015
September
2015
September
Sept 2014 Conditions Vs Current Conditions
Sept 2014
Sept 2015
IMPROVED: Kenya, Uganda, Sudan
DETERIORATED: South Sudan, Djibouti, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi.
SAME: Rwanda, Eastern DRC, CAR
September 2015
Current Conditions:
Regional Highlights
• Crisis and emergency food insecurity
remains a concern in parts of DRC,
CAR, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya,
parts of Karamoja, Darfur in Sudan,
IDP sites in Somalia;
• An estimated 17.9 people may be
facing food insecurity in the region.
• Dry conditions in pastoral areas of
Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sudan and
expected to continue till Dec
(GHACOF, Aug.).
• Conflicts/political tension remains a key driver for food insecurity in the
region (e.g South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, eastern DRC and Somalia.
• El Nino expected to lead to above average rainfall in some areas leading to
improved food security outcomes but also localised flooding but depressed
rainfalls in others persisting stressed/ food insecurity conditions
General improvement in food security situation in the region. However, some
deterioration seen in pastoral areas and an estimated 17.9M people in need of
humanitarian assistance.
September 2015
Current Conditions – Burundi
Burundi WFP, IPC (priliminary)
•Generally food security conditions is good
due to the season B harvest.
•About 100,000 are considered in food
insecurity crisis.
•Significant number of farming population
have fled to neigboring countries
(UNHCR) due to the political crisis
• The political crisis negatively affected Economic Activities in the
country, particularly the capital Bujumbura. Trade in agricultural
comoditities fell by about 50%.
• The lean period is expected to start in September, is likely be
exacerbated by the negative effects of the current crisis
Food security relatively stable due to Season B production though expected to remain stressed
to December. Improvements in food security in some areas unlikely to be sustained beyond
August due to below average overall harvest following disruptions.
September 2015
Current Conditions – South Sudan
South Sudan - FEWSNET
• In general, the food security has
improved in the country. However,
the conflict affected states remain
in phase 3 & 4.
• In GUN crop conditions are
generally favorable, although
planted area is well below average
•Cereal prices continue to rise well above the five-year average.
Sorghum prices increased by 23 and 67 percent in July in Juba and
Wau, respectively.
•A typical livestock migration due to conflict - inadequate extension
services. Reported disease outbreaks in Jonglei, Lakes, and EES.
•IPC Analysis has just been concluded awaiting government approval
• Continued decline in acute food insecurity due to improved
access during the harvest period.
September 2015
Current Conditions – Sudan
Sudan - FEWSNET
• Below average rainfall (25-80%)
countrywide, delayed planting
resulting into bellow average area
planted. This will most likely lead to
below-average production.
• Pasture conditions have not
regenerated as expected and this will
impact overall livestock production
•An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile
States face food insecurity. This is attributed to insecurity, disruption
of market supplies, and poor rainfall performance
•An estimated 211,000 people remained displaced by conflict in
Darfur since January 2015.
An estimated 52,000 people in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile States
face food insecurity
September 2015
Current Conditions – ETHIOPIA
ETHIOPI – FEWSNET, WFP
• Average rainfall for Jul to Sep.
Karan/Karma rains remains below
average. This has compounded the
poor livestock body conditions and
livestock production especially in Afar
and Sitti Zones.
•High cereal and low Livestock prices and demand will put pressure
on poor households in meetin their food needs
•Unusual livestock deaths and migration has been reported ,
particularly in Afar and Somali region.
September 2015
Current Conditions – Djibouti
Djibouti Fews Net
•About 120,000 are in PC Phase 2 & 3,
and expected to persist until end end of
Sept, especially in the southern pastoral
zone and the Obock region.
• The current elongated lean season,
pasture, browse and water scarcity may
worsen, resulting into sales of livestock
at low prices (GHACOF, prediction)
•The impact of the failed season reduced
household food access, coupled with
limited
labour
opportunities
and
inadequte humanitarian assistance
Crisis levels of food insecurity to continue in 2015 due to consecutive poor seasons. Lean
season to be more sever in Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas.
September 2015
Current Conditions - Rwanda
Rwanda FEWSNET, WFP
• Overall, food security have improved
due to the harvest from B season 2015
(As reported in August).
• Normal rainfall experienced in the first
10 days of September, succeeding drier
than normal conditions in August (El
Nino event).
• Annual crops are being planted for
season A which normally starts in the
second half of September, mainly maize,
Beans and roots;
September 2015
Current Conditions – DR Congo
DRC Preliminary IPC Analysis
• From the preliminary IPC, improved
food Security being observed in
regions where security is not of major
concerns.
• However, large part of the country is
still experiencing chronic food
insecurity, especially the East of the
country.
• The final IPC report will be released
by the end of Sept.
An estimated 6.5 million people were under crisis and emergency situation until June 2015.
September 2015
Current Conditions – Uganda
Uganda IPC, Info trade Uganda
• Food security situation in Uganda is
generally good due to the first season
harvest. However, there still concerns in
Karamoja.
• Prices of staple food across the country
generally increased in major makers.
• Most areas with Karamoja are in phase 3
(238,575) and 4 phase 4 (56,370).
Though areas cultivated were reported to
have increased, crop production was
generally below normal.
• Pasture and browse condition are still good. However, high
prevalence of diseases is affecting livestock production.
Food insecurity in Karamoja likely to persist due to delayed harvest until
September/October thereby prolonging the lean season.
September 2015
Current Conditions – Somalia
SOMALIA FAO, WFP, FSNAU, FEWSNET,
• Post Gu (April-June) assessment report
indicates worsening FS conditions.
• About 855 000 people in phase 3 & 4,
particularlly in Banadi; South & North
Mudug, Bari, Awdal, Lower Juba, Woqooyi
Galbeed
• Additional 2.3m people are in phase 2.
• 17% Increase in the number in phase 3&4
is attributed to; below average cereal
harvests, poor rainfall; trade disruption,
conflict and displacement
• Off-season harvest expected (3,900 tons) by end of
September in Jowhar and River Rind areas.
• In some agro-pastoral areas, the food security will improve
improved due to Deyr rainfall.
Food security situation likely to worsen following below-average GU performance. Rising risks
of flooding and damage to crops around the Shabelle and Juba regions.
September 2015
Current Conditions – Kenya
KENYA
The 2015 LR Assessment Report
• General improvement in the food security
situation attributed to the on-going harvest,
improved milk production and income as result
of good MAM rains as well as cross-boarder
food (trade) inflow.
• However, about 1.1m people are still in phase 3&4, though the
number has declined by 31% compared to 2015 SR assessment.
• Localized parts northern Isiolo and western Wajir still experiencing
food insecurity . Turkana County still remains at very critical, though
the situation has notably improved.
• Food prices across most urban, pastoral and marginal agricultural
markets remains fairly stable. This is due to supplies from harvest and
imports.
Food security expected to deteriorate through October as a result of below-average production
over previous two seasons and uneven rainfall in southeastern and coastal areas. Projected
above-average rainfall during October-December could improve food security outcomes over
longer term.
September 2015
Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)
Country
Pop in IPC phase 3 & 4
Source
Burundi
100,000
Preliminary IPC, Aug 2015
CAR
1,268,000
IPC April 2015
Djibouti
120,000
DRC
6,500,000
IPC Dec 2014 – June 2015
Ethiopia
4,505,111
HRD, Aug 2015
Kenya
1,074, 000
KFSSG, Feb 2015
Somalia
855 000
FSNAU, August 2015
South Sudan
2,750,000
IPC, Aug-Sept 2015 projection
Uganda
294,945
IPC June 2015
Sudan
1,288,759
IPC, June 2015
TOTAL
17,900,815
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
FSNWG Nutrition Sub-Group
Eastern and Central African Region
Nutrition Update
24th September 2015
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Regional Context
In September 2015, 17.9 million people in elevated food insecurity in
East and Central Africa
INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO 3.6 MILLION CHILDREN UNDER
FIVES: SEVERE AND ACUTE MALNUTRITION, FEEDING
PRACTICES, MORBIDITY/MORTALITY
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Ethiopia
Bi annual nutrition
surveys (June/July
2015)
• Increased GAM
rates
• Children in 56% of
surveyed woredas
with GAM above
15%
Critical situation for
children (based on
WHO standards)
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Sub-Group
Ethiopia
•
•
•
•
January to July 2015, 177,748 SAM
cases admissions nationwide
July 2015 admissions (31,729
cases) are significantly higher than
in 2012-4
Increase in SAM admissions however,
does not portray the regional and
woreda level deterioration observed in
the Belg affected areas
GoE revised 2015 SAM target from
264,000 to 302,000
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Ethiopia
Priority Woredas (nutrition hotspot)
191
142
189
149
140
97
84
60
49
Priority 1 Woredas
Priority 2 Woredas
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
August 2015 nutrition
hotspots:
Oromia (48), Amhara
(35), Somali (19), Afar
(17), SNNP (15), Tigray
(7), Gambella (1)
Priority 3 Woredas
• Increased number
(x3) of nutrition
hotspot (priority 1
woredas from 49 to
142)
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Somalia
Acute malnutrition, Somalia, July
2015
Estimated acute malnutrition
situation, Somalia, Aug-Oct 2015
Deterioration in the nutrition situation of children in some parts of central and southern regions of
Somalia
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Somalia
Increased in the number of
children in need of
treatment for acute
malnutrition: 214,700 to
343,400.
Critical levels of acute
malnutrition in Hiraan
region (Bulo Burte district)
and deterioration in food
security and nutrition
situation in Bakool region
Nutrition situation
amongst IDPs is of high
concern: 68% of
population in IPC 3 & 4
are IDPs
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Somalia
SAM admissions trends (first three
months, 2014-5):
• Higher SAM admissions in Q1
• Higher SAM admissions higher
in 2015
Admissions to nutrition centers
indicate a worrisome nutrition
situation in:
• Hiraan region (Bulo Burte and
Beled Weyne);
• Banadir region; riverine
livelihood areas in Gedo
• Shabelle regions;
• Bay and Bakool pastoral and
agro-pastoral livelihood areas;
pastoral and agro-pastoral areas
along the Juba valley;
• Addun Hawd livelihood areas in
Central regions;
• IDP populations.
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Kenya
•
Nutrition situation has improved in most areas assessed due to improved food security outcomes.
BUT
•
Turkana County still remains at very critical/ critical levels as GAM dropped from 17.4 to 16.7 percent in Turkana
West, from 28.7 to 20.9 percent in Turkana Central and, 27.2 to 22.9 percent in Turkana North. Unchanged in Turkana
South and East at 24.5 percent.
•
Critical situation in Mandera County (GAM - 24.7 percent) due to extremely high vulnerabilities in the county.
•
Nutrition situation deteriorated in:
•
Wajir North from poor to critical with prevalence of GAM increasing from 8.8 percent to 14.3 percent.
•
Isiolo County has also deteriorated from serious to critical given this area did suffer from poor rainfall and is
currently classified in IPC Phase 3 - Crisis.
•
Nutrition situation improved from very critical to critical in East Pokot (secondary data).
•
The total number of children less than five years requiring treatment (total caseloads) in the areas assessed has dropped
to 239,446 in the LRA 2015 compared to 261,120 reported in the 2015 short rains assessment
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Djibouti
Eritrea
•
Trend of acute malnutrition –
based on MUAC screening - in
Southern Red Sea (SRS),
Gash Barka and Anseba
regions has steadily increased
in the last three years.
•
April 2015 MUAC screening:
national GAM rate is around 5
%
•
Data collection for the
UNICEF and WFP supported
food security and nutrition
assessment completed. Data
analysis to be completed by
end September 2015.
•
Admissions of SAM and MAM cases
increased in Obock and Balbala, a periurban area of Djibouti City, when compared
to last year
•
Implications of the Yemen crisis: fragile
nutritional status of some of the Yemeni
children arriving to Djibouti in coastline
areas from Hajjah to Abyan with acute
malnutrition above WHO emergency
threshold of 15 per cent.
•
2015 lean season is expected to be more
severe than usual, particularly in the
Southeastern pastoral and Obock areas
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Burundi
Rwanda
MUAC Screening in Nyanzalac health
district, Makamba province, July 2015:
• MUAC based GAM @ 8.3%
• MUAC based SAM @ 1%
• MUAC based MAM @ 7.3%
•
CFSVA conducted by WFP in may 2015
in all districts (30) > Draft report to be
released soon
•
Nutrition survey planned in Mahama
refugee camp in October 2015
A “Stunting baseline survey conducted in
Aug/Sept in Rutana, Karuzi and Muramya
provinces.
• To estimate the prevalence of stunting,
food consumption scores, level of
minimum acceptable diet among
children 6-23 months
• Preliminary results will be out in
October
Planned EFSA in October
Uganda
Karamoja region:
• Serious GAM was at 14.1 % in June 2015
with 4 (Moroto, Napak, Nakapiripirit and
Kaabong) out of the 7 districts having a
critical GAM level.
• SAM at 3.7%, above SAM emergency
• Worst off situation in Moroto and Napak
where SAM was at 6% and 5.5%
respectively.
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
South Sudan
Dire nutrition situation.
Deterioration is likely because of:
•
Few or no planting and no harvesting in Greater Upper Nile area
•
The planted crops in the Greater Equatorial will likely not give a huge bumper harvest due to the erratic
rains the planting period
•
The high prices of basic foods mostly affecting the vulnerable
•
The unstable currency causing prices of basic foods being imported to be expensive
•
High morbidity, compounded by poor health seeking behaviors, WASH and other factors
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
South Sudan
Revised SAM
Target
143,442
Reached
July 2015
60%
(86,023)
Revised MAM
Target
344,255
Reached
July 2015
49.5%
(170,567)
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
South Sudan
Bentiu POC updates:
•
•
•
GAM: 34.1% (95%CI: 31.1 - 37.2)
SAM: 10.5 %% (95%CI: 8.5 - 12.9)
Significantly Higher GAM among newly
arrived children when compared to other
children in the POC
GAM rates above critical level as per WHO
standards.
•
Crude mortality rate: 1.29 (0.75-2.20) (95%
CI)
•
Under five mortality rate: 0.17 (0.02-1.34)
(95% CI)
CMR and U5MR under WHO emergency
threshold (2/10,000 persons/day for crude
mortality rate and 4/10,000 U5 children/day
for U5MR)
2015 2015
September
September
Nutrition Update
Regional nutritional synthesis
Critical nutrition situation for young children in several countries –
various scale- due to a deterioration of household food security:
• Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya
Concern over the nutrition situation of IDP children especially in
Somalia
Food security forecast and upcoming development to influence
ongoing observations for child nutrition and other vulnerable
population, in the coming months
Absence of up to date information on child nutrition status limits
national and regional analysis remains a concern for some
countries.
September 2015
Regional refugee update
September 2015
South Sudan situation
• The security situation in Upper Nile remains volatile and tense. In
the South of Malakal, there has been intermittent fighting this month.
• IGAD-sponsored ceasefire and transitional security workshop
started in Addis Ababa on 12th September to discuss mechanisms to
ensure the peace deal holds.
September 2015
Burundi situation (as of 13th September)
• The situation in Burundi remains volatile with continued incidents of
sporadic violence in the capital. UNHCR is anticipating that the situation
will not improve and will prepare an updated regional response plan for
2016.
• The overall arrival trend in Tanzania and Uganda has reduced. The
government of Tanzania has officially announced new camp sites.
September 2015
Nutrition and food security updates
• South Sudan: 30% food ration reduction until the end of the year.
Recent MUAC screening results in Upper Nile Doro camp show
14.2% MUAC malnutrition among children under five and 29.8%
MUAC malnutrition among pregnant and lactating women.
• Sudan: UNHCR and UNICEF signed a letter of understanding to
coordinate the nutrition interventions to South Sudanese refugees
in West Nile State. The planning of a nutrition survey is under
discussion.
• Kenya: 30% food ration reduction until the end of the year. Annual
SENS conducted in Dadaab in August 2015 shows that the GAM
prevalence in all 5 camps is between 5 and 10%, while the
prevalence of SAM varies between 1 and 1.4%. However anaemia
prevalence among children under five is above 40% in 4 of the 5
camps. The results for IYCF show low levels of exclusive
breastfeeding (below 25% in 4 of the 5 camps).
September 2015
Nutrition and food security updates
• Tanzania (Nyarugusu):
Rapid Joint Assessment Mission conducted between 1st – 4th September.
Participation from WFP, UNHCR, UNICEF, FAO and partners.
Objectives:
1) Update the food security and nutrition situation in Nyarugusu refugee
operation, with particular attention to the Burundi new arrivals.
2) Review the quality and appropriateness of the ongoing food security
and nutrition program identifying good practices, principle constraints,
lessons learned and areas requiring improvement.
3) Identify effective food security, nutrition and livelihood interventions
that will protect and ensure continued food and nutrition security in
sustainable manner.
Methodology: review of secondary data and collection of primary data
through focus group discussions, key informant interviews, observation.
MARKET UPDATE
September 2015
600
3000
500
2500
400
2000
300
1500
200
1000
100
500
0
0
Mombasa, Kenya
Mbeya, Tanzania
Masindi, Uganda
Qorioley, Somalia
Juba, South Sudan
USD/MT for Juba, South Sudan
USD/MT
September 2015
Figure 1: Maize Price Projections for Selected Markets in East
Africa (TSP, MAD + or – USD 40/MT) Source: FEWSNET
3500
1200
3000
1000
2500
800
2000
600
1500
400
1000
200
500
Baidoa, Somalia
Kisumu, Kenya
Juba, South Sudan (retail)
Gulu, Uganda (retail)
Gadarif, Sudan
Jul-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Nov-15
Sep-15
Jul-15
May-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
0
May-13
0
USD/MT for Juba, South Sudan
1400
USD/MT
September 2015
Figure 1: Sorghum Price Projections (dotted) for Selected Markets in
East Africa (TSP, MAD = 10%). Source: FEWSNET
September 2015
Climate Update
By
Zachary Atheru
IGAD CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS CENTRE
(ICPAC)
Analogue years
September 2015
GHACOF 41 consensus climate outlook
for September to December 2015
Saturday, March 26, 2016
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON
DEVELOPMENT
38
September 2015
FORECAST IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SOND LTM
Saturday, March 26, 2016
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOND
FORECAST AND LTM
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON
DEVELOPMENT
39
CLIMATE UPDATE
September 2015
There is
95% chance
that El Niño
will
continue
through
Northern
Hemisphere
winter 201516,
gradually
weakening
through
spring 2016
Saturday, March 26, 2016
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON
DEVELOPMENT
40
September 2015
CURRENT SST ANOMALIES
Saturday, March 26, 2016
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON
DEVELOPMENT
41
September 2015
INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE
Saturday, March 26, 2016
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON
DEVELOPMENT
42
September 2015
Thank you
Saturday, March 26, 2016
INTERGOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY ON
DEVELOPMENT
43
September 2015
El Nino Update
Status of regional and national preparedness actions
At the regional level, countries likely to be affected by El
Nino events (exceptionally heavy or flash floods or
unexpected major droughts) should quickly test their
respective early warning systems, response capacity and
ensure that they are fully operational. OCHA Regional
office is following up especially in countries where
impact of El Nino may be highest.
September 2015
Country El Nino preparedness actions as of mid-September 2015
Country
Early warning actions
Response activities
Eritrea
There is no national or UN El Nino
contingency plan for multiple
hazards in Eritrea
Kenya
The 2014 El Nino contingency plan There is a NDOC-led El Nino
is updated with 2015 action plan
preparedness and response
by sector by 22 September 2015.
taskforce with KRCS has
started regular meetings with
Kenya Red Cross has preparedness response actors (line
plan and are working to
ministries)
harmonise with national
contingency plan
Ethiopia
Sub-national preparedness plans
in place for every region
Based on national disaster
management structure
Somalia
El Nino contingency plan being
finalised by humanitarian partners
Access may be a problem
National DRM taskforce has
action plans for every ministry
Safety net for drought-affected
September 2015
Country El Nino preparedness actions as of mid-September 2015
Country
Early warning actions
Response activities
Rwanda
There is a national El Nino-focused
contingency plan
Burundi
There is a national multi hazard
contingency plan including floods.
Burundi Red Cross has flood
response experience.
Djibouti
There is a national contingency plan
inclusive of floods.
External support (first
responders French, US armies)
needed to support increased
number of vulnerable groups
(vulnerable Djiboutians, Yemeni
refugees in camps or host
communities)
Uganda
There is a national contingency plan
inclusive of floods.
NECOC is coordinating, collecting and
sharing forecast information with
district officials and other relevant
stakeholders.
The Government-led DRR
taskforce has met to discuss and
sectoral, district contingency
plans are being developed
Sudan
Humanitarian partners working on
multi-hazard early warning plan.
South
Humanitarian partners working on