Transcript Diapositiva 1

Pre-Congress Symposium
XIIth EAAE Congress
Gent, 26-29 August, 2008
EU PROJECT
TERA

FINAL CONFERENCE
Territory and rural development
in six European countries
EU PROJECT
TERA
(CT 2005-006469)
[T]erritorial aspects of [E]nterprise
development
in [R]emote Rural [A]reas

Project Presentation
Prof. Anna Soci
University of Bologna
TECNICHAL DETAILS
• Project No: FP6-SSP-2005-006469
• Thematic Priority: Priority 8, Specific
Support to Policies (SSP)
• Instrument: STREP (Specific Targeted
REsearch Project)
• Start Date of Project: July 1st, 2005
• Duration: 36 months (+ a two-month ext.)
• EU funding: € 1.500.000
• Project Web Site:
http://www.dse.unibo.it/tera
6 PARTICIPANTS
 Dept. of Economics (COORDINATOR)
University of Bologna (I)
 Business School
University of Aberdeen (UK)
 Dept. of Economics and Management
University of Helsinki (FIN)
 Dept. of Economics
University of Patras (GR)
 Latvian State Inst. of Agrarian Economics
Riga (LV)
 Research Inst. of Agricultural Economics
Prague (CZ)
Scientific Board
(of the project and of the Conference)

Prof. Anna Soci (I)

Dr. Deborah Roberts (UK)

Prof. Jukka Kola (FIN)

Dr. Demetrios Psaltopoulos (GR)

Dr. Daina Saktina (LV)

Ing. Zuzana Bednarikova (CZ)
AIM of the project
The project aims at generating new
knowledge on the development of
economic activity in remote rural
areas of Europe.
More precisely……………
Objectives
Objective 1
Identifying and analyzing territorial
economic factors which influence
the creation, the development and
the survival of enterprises in
peripheral rural areas of Europe
and measuring the nature and
degree of the influence of these
factors
Objective 2
Assessing the extent to which
current and recent EU, national, and
regional development policies and
programmes take account of these
factors. The appraisal would concern
itself in particular with parallel
support policies such as CAP direct
payments and national social welfare
support systems
Objective 3
Specifying new policies which
would
take
into
account
territorial factors and promote
the development of remote
rural areas in a more targeted
and effective manner.
Work Packages
1. Identification of study areas and
regional context
2. Conceptualisation of geographical and
economic patterns
3. Model design
4. Collection of information and data
5. Model calibration, analysis and results
6. Relevance of structural development
policies
7. Policy implications and
recommendations
8. Synthesis and evaluation
FIRST STEP
 To specify the subject
  STUDY-AREA SELECTION
 To envisage a scientific thesis
  MODELS
 To test the thesis
  WORK-METHODOLOGY
 To get an outcome
  RESULTS
SECOND STEP
 To review extensively the existing
policies at a

EU level

national level

local level
THIRD STEP
 To confront these existing policies
with the policies (if any) “implied”
by our results in order to see whether
(and how much) they overlap
or diverge
 To suggest new policies, if necessary,
for the local development of marginal
areas
FIRST STEP/1
To delineate the subject

STUDY-AREA SELECTION
• to specify criteria for the selection of
the study areas
• to identify these study areas
Study areas
 Italy: the Po Plain Area. This area is built on a
NUTS 5 basis. It is adjacent to the urban centre
of Ferrara (and also Ravenna).
 UK: the East Highlands. It is a NUTS 3 level area.
It is adjacent to the urban centre of Inverness.
 Finland: North Karelia. It is a NUTS 3 level area.
It is adjacent to the urban centre of Joensuu.
 Greece: the Municipality of Archanes. It is a
NUTS 5 level area, located in the North Central
part of the Prefecture of Heraklion (NUTS 3) in
the Northern Crete Island. Its urban centre is
Heraklion.
 Latvian Republic: the Latgale Region. It is a
NUTS 5 area, and consists of 6 districts. It has
two urban centres: Rēzekne and Daugavpils.
 Czech Republic: the District Bruntál. It is a
NUTS 4 area. Its urban centre is Ostrava.
FIRST STEP/2
To envisage a scientific thesis

MODELS
THESIS
QUESTION?
What does provide the main determinants for
the creation and survival of enterprises in
rural areas?
THESIS
 territorial economic factors
labour pooling, backward linkages, forward
linkages and the development of infrastructures
 growth promoting factors
state of human capital and the degree of
technical knowledge
MODELS
CGE Model
NEG Model(s)


New-NEG Model
FIRST STEP/3
To test the thesis

WORK-METHODOLOGY
Collection of model information
 Field-work
First hand data was gathered through the
interviewing of the main subjects: firms and
households.
 Finalization of data collection issue
harmonization of data coming from different
sources
 Construction of SAMs for the 6 study areas
analysis of the data collection results for both
categories of models, and balancing of the SAMs
TESTING THE MODELS
1. Calibration
The calibration process involved
using the SAM information to
estimate directly the parameters
of the models, thus allowing the
calculation of the
endogenous
variables.
TESTING THE MODELS
2. Simulations
The choice of TERA simulations
(hypothetical scenarios) was made
 on the basis of their relevance on
remote rural economies in the EU
 on the basis of the theoretical nature
of our models
SCENARIOS for the CGE model
The common simulations/scenarios
included:
 Changes in labour supply
 Exogenous changes in world prices
This simulation comprised
- two general shocks
and
- three sector-specific shocks
 Agricultural Policy Changes
 Improvements in transport infrastructure
SCENARIOS for the NEG model
 Changes in the tax rate (to finance
infrastructure)
•
•
in the urban region
in the rural region
 Changes in the labour supply in the
urban region
•
coming from a third region
•
coming from the rural region
 Changes in the labour supply in the
rural region (coming from a third region)
SCENARIOS for the New-NEG model
 Increase in productivity steaming
from a 5% trade cost reduction
between the trading regions
 Changes in the labour supply of the
study areas
Further simulations
5 partners proceeded to further
analyses via
 additional simulations on the CGE model
(sometimes altering the structure of the
model itself, e.g.: the “closure rules”)
 interviews to local experts
(on both the results of simulations and
the “state of the art” of the current
policies)
RESULTS

Psaltopoulos’s presentation:
“Main findings of the TERA projects”
SECOND STEP
To review extensively the existing
policies at a:
 international (i.e. EU) level
 national level
 local level
THIRD STEP
To confront these existing policies with
the policies (if any) “implied” by our
results in order to see whether (and
how much) they overlap or diverge
To suggest new policies, if necessary,
for the local development of marginal
areas


Kola’s presentation
“From positive to normative analysis:
prescriptions for policy”
Specific aspects
(and some technicalities)
of the work carried out for TERA
 Psaltopoulos et al.’s presentation
 Hytiia and Kola’s presentation
 Pouliakas et al.’s presentation
 Marattin’s presentation
 Mion’s presentation