Transcript The Regulation of Investment in Utilities

OPTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER
PROVISION FOR AGRICULTURAL USE
KEY DRIVER FOR POVERTY ERADICATION”
SPATIAL MISMATCH BETWEEN WATER RESOURCES AND
WATER DEMAND
Harry Pheko, ROD
Facts At-A-Glance
 330 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa
do not have access to improved sources of
drinking water.
 Only 60% of SSA people use improved
sources of improved DW despite an
increase of 11 points since 1990.
 At this pace SSA will not reach the MDG
targets of halving by 2015 the proportion of
people without sustainable access to
improved DW : it is estimated that only 26
countries out of 53 will attain the MDG
goals.
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
 Objective
 Background
 Water Resources (WR)Distribution
 Water Demand (WD)Distribution
 Supply and demand clustering
 Observations
OBJECTIVE
The primary objective of this paper is to discuss the
spatial variation in water supply and demand
across Botswana and to assess the implications for
future water resources development
BACKGOUND
 The recent downward turn of the global economy,
which has resulted in less than stellar performance of
the mining sector, forced the government to embark on
a diversification drive aimed at reducing reliance on
the mining sector.
 Among the strategic initiatives to realize this has been
the drive to resuscitate agriculture sector.
 The
contribution of agriculture sector to the
Botswana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has
declined from a high of 42.7% in 1966 to a current
level of 3%.
BACKGOUND
 The move to improved agriculture output has
been linked to the broader goal of the poverty
eradication initiatives
 The resuscitation of this Agricultural initiative
requires water resources
 However, this agric resuscitation is going to
face high competition for the scarce water
resource from non- agricultural activities such
as mining
Water resources - Rainfall distribution
 It does not rain that
 There is a northeast-southwest
gradation of mean annual rainfall
represented by a line from Kasane
(650 mm) to Bokspits (170mm)
much in Botswana
 Over 90% of the rainfall occurs in the
summer months.
 Sometimes, 70% to 90% of the
annual total rainfall may occur in
only one month.
 Rainfall incidence is highly variable
both spatially and temporally.
 Rainfall is very variable both in
space and time.
Water resources
Groundwater Resources
 The
map
shows
major
abstractions and groundwater
potential
 Groundwater resources
 Abstraction
Area of high
potential
mainly
eastern corridor
on
the
 Some of the major abstraction
occur in the two diamond
mines.
 Area of high potential appear
on the central part of the
country
Water resources - dams
Dam
FSC
(MCM)
Impoundment
(MCM)
Percentage
(%) full
(2012/9/17)
Gaborone
141.4
57.19
39.97
Nnywane
2.3
0.9
37.8
Shashe
85.3
60.92
71.14
Bokaa
18.5
Failed
Failed
Letsibogo
100
30.36
28.4
Ntimbale
26.5
20.65
77.1
Molatedi
201
93.4
45.9
Dikgathong
400
New dam
Thuni
90
New Dam
Lotsane
40
New Dam
Has agric
component
Has agric
component
Wastewater
 Treated effluent represents
 Result in Surplus &
deficit terms
16% of all water resources in
the country by volume. (NWMP
2006)
 Francistown (10Ml/d) and
Gaborone (44Ml/d) plants has
the most significant quantities
of effluent.
 Most treatment plant facilities
are located on the eastern
corridor.
Demand - Population distribution
 Population is congregated in the
eastern region of the country.
 In 2001, 87% of the population
were located in the Eastern and
South-Eastern Planning Regions
 The
Northern Region, which
includes the fertile Okavango
Delta, had 8.5% of the country’s
population, while the Western
Region, which is dominated by the
Kalahari Desert, is sparsely
populated.
 A
similar kind of distribution
pattern is seen in 2011 population
census
Water Demand
 Current country water demand
250Mm3/annum
7%
7%
37%
agriculture
mining
households
government
33%
other sectors
16%
agriculture
mining
households
government
other sectors
Summary of supply and demand
.
20°0'0"E
CongoTransfer
(proposed)
Legend
Kasane
Chobe
Zambezi Transfer
Large groundwater resource Not utilised
(proposed)
14
an
di
e
ri v
r
Medium groundwater resource Not utilised
y
Lin
Chobe National Park
Large groundwater resource utilised
Moremi Game
Reserve
16
Medium groundwater resource utilised
Nun ga
Cw
ad
um
er
riv
Nxai National Park
Okavango Delta
Maun
Gweta
15
13
Sowa
Makgadikgadi Pans
National Park
Unknown
Tutume
11
NAMIBIA
Ngami
20°0'0"S
20°0'0"S
Saline/Brackish water, Not utilised
b
ih a
#
Masunga
Sowa Pan
Villages_few.shp
North-south carrier_approximated.shp
Toteng
Ntimba le
Mosetse
Dam
Dam
10
Dams
Water supply direction arrows.shp
Tonota
Moremi.shp
E
BW
Shashe Dam
Letlhakane
BA
Lake Xau
Francistown
Orapa
M
ZI
Mopipi Dam
AtlanticTransfer
(proposed)
9
Water sources from outside botswana.shp
Low er Sha she
Dam
Ghanzi
0
Shashe
8
Letsibogo Dam
tl
Le
Northern Tuli
Game Reserve
k
ha
r
ve
e ri
an
Mo tlo utse
Bobonong
Thuni
Palapye
5
Central Kalahari Game Reserve
17
po
Li m
po
Gravel Road
Railway
Martin's Drift
Swamp.shp
AF
R
IC
A
Ncojane
Tarred Road
7
Lotsane
6
Admin.shp
Builtup area
Serowe
Okwa River
1
SO
U
TH
Mahalapye
Game reserve
Khutse Game Reserve
PU
4
N
otw
an
e
RE
Kang
BL
IC
O
F
Hunhukwe
National park
Dutlwe
Hukuntsi
Bobirwa
Boteti
Central East
Chobe
Mabutsane
Sekoma
3
Francistown
Jwaneng
Morwa
Wellfield
Ghanzi
Jwaneng
Khakhea
Greater Gaborone
Gaborone Dam
Gaborone
Kokotsha
Kgalagadi South
Letlhakeng Sekoma
Gemsbok National Park
2
Werda
Moselebe river
Mahalapye
Lobatse
From Molatedi
Dam (existing)
1
Maun
Nata Gweta
op
s
No
North East
e
riv
r
Tshabong
North West Ngamiland
Selibe Phikwe
Orange River Transfer
(proposed)
Bokspits
20°0'0"E
Serowe Palapye
Tswapong
Summary of supply and demand
. Number
Cluster
1 - Kgalagadi South
Water
Demand Water Resource Available for Export Comment
(All units m3/day) (All
units (m3/day)
m3/day)
2,740
2 - Greater Gaborone 70,800 - Gaborone
115,500 - Rest of
Cluster
No regional water
resources
available
-2,740
Tsabong currently provided
for by a sort of small
'wellfield' - series of spread
out boreholes
74,400
-111,900
Assumes average inflow into
both Gaborone and Bokaa
Dam
65,000
39,000
Assumes large operational
wellfield
developed
at
Botlhalotlau
Assumes full high pumping
resource
from
Masama
expansion
186,300 - in Total
3 - Jwaneng
34,00 - Jwaneng
Mine
5,700 - Rest of
Cluster
39,700 inTotal
4 - Mahalapye
42,700
40,000
-2,700
5 - Serowe - Palapye
30,100
12,800
-17,300
Summary of supply and demand
.
Cluster Number
8 - Phikwe
Water Demand (All Water Resource (All Available
for Comment
units m3/day)
units m3/day)
Export (m3/day)
40,300 - BCL Mine
53,300
8,400
Letsibogo Dam main resource
4,600 - Rest of Cluster
9 - Francistown
44,900 - in Total
46,100
221,700
175,600
11- Nata/Gweta
6,300
32,700
26,400
48,200 - Orapa Mine
43,000
-8,400
13 - Orapa
3,200 - Rest of Cluster
14 - Kasane
51,400 - in Total
2,900
15 - Maun
15,200
16 - Ngamiland
5,900
17 - Ghanzi - Kang
5,400
Assumes Lower Shashe Dam
Completed - Lower Shashe
Dam on boundary of Cluster 8
and 9
Assumes Mosetse Dam and
Gweta developed
Assumes Letlhakane Mine
closed. Flat rate for Orapa does not include Saline Option
Extensive from Chobe Uncertain and not Potentially huge transfer from
included in study Congo and Chobe
22,000
6,800
Assumes
new
wellfields
Gomoti, Kunyere all developed
30,000
24,100
Extensive
Groundwater
available
although
not
developed at all
22,900
17,500
Ncojane Basin fully developed
Result in Surplus & deficit terms
Shashe and Lower Shashe Dams
Greater Gaborone
Source : Costing of the Botswana Water Supply and Demand Clusters Investigation
Draft Final Report - October 2008 Water Surveys Botswana (Pty) Ltd in Association with
Bergstan Africa (Pty) Ltd
OBSERVATIONS
.
 There is a spatial mismatch between the demand and
water supply aspects
 The supply surplus and more resources tends to be
focused towards the north of the country (mismatch)
 The demands deficit tends towards the south
 Other water needs like EFR and Agricultural
requirements needs to be factored in the mismatch
 Most deficit 131900m3/day is located on the Limpopo
basin
Implications of the mismatch
.
 Costly Potential transfer schemes to meet the
demand
Scheme
TS1 ETSHA – GHANZI – KANG - KANYE
TS8 MOLOPO - TSABONG
Cost (x1000 Pula)
16,479,261
793,502
Rounded (Pula)
16.5 Billion
794 Million
 There will always be competition with other needs
as per the Water Policy
 Skewed migration of people and industry to the
more urbanized eastern side of the country
increasing demand
Thank you