Transcript globalization and its discontents

rise, fall and upward sweeps:
modeling city and state formation in
world regions since the Bronze Age
40
35
25
20
Upward sweeps
of empire size
15
10
5
22
0
41
0
60
0
79
0
98
0
11
70
13
60
15
60
17
50
19
40
30
10
-9
20
-7
30
-5
40
-3
50
-1
60
00
-1
1
90
-1
3
80
-1
4
70
-1
6
60
-1
8
50
-2
0
40
-2
2
30
-2
4
20
-2
6
10
-2
8
-3
0
00
0
-3
2
Square Megameters
30
Year
Largest Empire
Second Largest Empire
Christopher Chase-Dunn, Peter Turchin and E.N. Anderson
NSF-HSD supported project
[upward sweeps= those cases in which much larger states
(empires) and cities emerge than have existed previously
within a region.]
• Empirical tasks:
•
Estimating the population sizes of largest cities, states
and empires
•
Measuring Empire Sizes
•
Coding Core/Periphery positions
• Modeling approaches and substantive processes
• Modeling agrarian states, rise and fall in interstate systems
(including non-state peoples) and upward sweeps in which
states emerge that are much larger than any in adjacent
regions
• Modeling trading states and network dynamics
• Modeling international political integration and world state
formation
Spatial and temporal framework of the research:
1. the central system (political-military network or system of
states)
(from 2500 BCE or as soon as the size of the major states
can be estimated) Mesopotamia, Egypt, the Aegean,
Western Asia , the Eastern Med and then expanding to the
west, east , north and south as delineated by David
Wilkinson.
2. the East Asian region from the bronze age to now.
3. South Asia after the rise of states in the Ganges Valley
(not Indus because not enough information)
4. and Mesoamerica, possibly the Mayan region, Oaxaca and
Central Mexico – wherever it is possible to estimate the
sizes of states and cities.
Rise and Fall of large powerful
polities with intermittent upsweeps
Rise of the Central
System (Wilkinson)
Iterative Causes of City and State
Growth
Measuring empire sizes and identifying
upward sweeps
• Upward sweeps of polity and city growth
• City growth: chandler’s estimates at
http://irows.ucr.edu/research/citemp/data/citypopsizes.xls
• Measuring polity growth: Taagepera’s methods: (“Size
and duration of empires: systematics of size”1978:113)
– Planimeter: tracing the outline of a shape to estimate the area.
– Rules: the earliest date of uninterrupted tributary status; the
date of territory loss is when reassertion of ever increasing
autonomy first becomes noticeable. Spheres of influence are
neglected. Average consensus of historical atlases is accepted.
When there is great disagreement average as well as extreme
estimates are reported. Give the benefit of the doubt to the
larger or more durable entity.
• Taagepera’s data at:
http://irows.ucr.edu/research/citemp/data/empsizes.xls
Upward sweeps of empire size in the Central System:
(Taagepera’s data on territorial sizes of states and empires)
40
British
35
Mongol
25
Umayyads
and
Abbassids
20
15
Neo-Assyrian,
10
Persian, Hellenic
Rome
5
akkadian
60
0
79
0
98
0
11
70
13
60
15
60
17
50
19
40
10
-9
20
-7
30
-5
40
-3
50
-1
60
30
22
0
41
0
-1
1
90
00
-1
3
-1
4
70
80
-1
6
-1
8
50
60
-2
0
40
-2
2
-2
4
20
30
-2
6
-2
8
-3
0
00
10
0
-3
2
Square Megameters
30
Year
Largest Empire
Second Largest Empire
Modeling international political integration and
world state formation
• Core-Wide Empire vs. Modern Hegemony (slide)
• Interstate system and diplomacy
• International law
• Colonization and decolonization (slide)
Hegemonic Rise and Fall
Political globalization:
Concert of Europe
International organizations
League of Nations
United Nations
IMF, World Bank
UN Reform
The imperial detour vs. a democratic and collectively rational global
commonwealth
Core-Wide Empire vs. Modern
Hegemony
Resistance and global polity formation
Waves of Colonization and Decolonization
since the 16th century
David P. Henige, Colonial Governors