Transcript Comparative Arab Experiences with Federalism

Comparative Arab Experiences
with Federalism
Democratic Federalism – An Intensive Course offered to Iraqi University
Faculty by the Forum of Federations – Amman, June 18 to July 5, 2007
Outline
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Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity
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Successful federal experiences: The United Arab Emirates

Failed “federal” experiences: The United Arab Republic
and the Yemeni unification process

Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding: Why not
Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?
Arab and Islamic experiences with diversity and unity
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Diversity in the Arab World:
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Sources of diversity: ethnicity, language, and religion
Historical expressions of diversity
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Provinces, governorates under the various Arab/Islamic empires
The millet system under the Ottoman empire
Unity in the Arab World:
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The concept of the Umma
Arab nationalism – al qawmiyya al `arabiyya
Successful federal experiences : The United Arab Emirates
(1) Context and Prerequisites
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A history of past cooperation – The Trucial States (from
1820-1892 to 1971)
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A hostile regional environment – federalism as a bulwark
against strong neighbours
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Extensive border disputes – federalism as a mechanism
of conflict-management
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Extremely diverse units – asymmetrical federalism?
Successful federal experiences : The United Arab Emirates
(2) Characteristics
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A flexible and creatively ambiguous constitution
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A founding (and renewed) compromise between
wahdawis and ittihadis
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A social compact based on rentierism
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Supportive institutional structures
Failed “federal” experiences : (1)The United Arab
Republic (1958-1961)
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Context and prerequisites
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Two competing visions: one quasi-federal, the other unitary
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A union of equal partners: Coming together and staying apart
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A consecration of Arab unity: Melding together
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Domestic political struggles in Syria: Baathists vs. Communists
The aura of Gamal ‘Abd al-Nasser and the weight of Egypt
Plebiscite and the ratification of the Union
Characteristics
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An unstable bipolar arrangement
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No geographic contiguity
High asymmetry in size and capacity
Authoritarianism at the center
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Egyptian dominance of political life and of the Syrian administration
Failed “federal” experiences: (2) Yemeni unification
(1990-1994)
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Context and prerequisites
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The end of the Cold War
The discovery of oil and natural gas in the contested border
area between North and South Yemen

but ... the decision to back Iraq in its invasion of Kuwait
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Characteristics
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Two widely divergent systems
Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (1):
Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?
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Lebanon
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Regions, what regions?
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A problem of trust
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An extremely intermingled country – 17 minorities none of which
(with the exception of the Druze community) is geographically
concentrated
A logic of economic and administrative centralization – the
overwhelming dominance of Greater Beirut
A divided identity in a troubled regional context –The National Pact
of 1943
Unity vs. diversity: Federal proposals and majoritarian democracy
An existing alternative:
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A history of consociational powersharing
Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (2):
Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?
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Sudan
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An extremely complex Comprehensive Peace Agreement
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Building trust
 Through institutions: Proportional division of power at the center
 Overnight: A relatively short transitional period – 6 years from 2005 to the scheduled
2011 referendum with a 2009 democratic election deadline
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Building capacity under duress: The creation of a new large region (Government of South
Sudan)
A gap between the text of the CPA and the practice of the Government of National
Unity under the stewardship of the ruling National Congress Party
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Unity over diversity:
 Concentration of power and decision-making responsibility in the Presidency – rule by
decree
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A breach of trust
 Pairing agreement in the attribution of ministries is not respected
 Only 40 SPLM/A members in the GNU
 No meaningful inclusion of SPLM/A in the civil service and other national institutions
Federalism and post-conflict peacebuilding (3):
Why not Lebanon but (maybe) the Sudan?
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Sudan
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Serious flashpoints
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The Abyei problem
The management of oil
Complicated by internal and external factors
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Internal factors
 The lack of NCP political will
 The lack of SPLM/A capacity
 The death of John Garang
External factors
 The Ugandan LRA and the security situation in South Sudan
 Chad and the support to Darfur rebels