Transcript INTRODUCTION

Early Season Crop Prospect Assessment Using Satellite
Data Based Rainfall Estimates
Jai Singh Parihar
Dy. Director
Earth, Ocean, Atmosphere, Planetary Sciences and Applications Area
Space Applications Area, ISRO
Ahmedabad 380015
INDIA
[email protected]
3rd Crop and Rangeland Monitoring Workshop, September 26-30, 2011, RCMRD, Nairobi, Kenya
Outline of Presentation
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Introduction
Rainfall Estimation from Satellite Data
Rainfall Based Crop Prospect Assessment
Results and Validation
Research Opportunity to African Researchers
Global Irrigated Area
Typical Annual Precipitation over Africa and Indian Subcontinents
Indian Monsoon, Irrigation and Physiography
Mean annual rainfall (cm)
Rainy days
( >= 2.5mm/day)
Monsoon onset
normal dates
Physiography
Height in m
< 250
251 - 500
501 - 750
751 - 1,000
> 1,001
Monsoon withdrawal
normal dates
Command Area
Kharif Rice and Coarse Cereals Growing Regions in India
Rice Growing Region
Coarse Cereals Growing Region
Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorology and Land
based observations (FASAL)
Land
Observations
Cropped area
Crop condition
Crop area &
Production
Crop acreage
Crop area &
Production
Crop yield
MULTIPLE IN-SEASON FORECAST
PreSeason
EarlySeason
MidSeason
State
PreHarvest
State
PreHarvest
District
Revised
Assessing
Damage
Rainfall Estimation from Satellite Data
Precipitation Using - INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm
(IMSRA)
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Cloud classification using IR and WV channel observations of INSAT and
Kalpana.
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Creation of a large gridded data base of IR TB’s from INSAT and Polar orbiting Microwave Satellite rainfall from TRMM –Precipitation Radar
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Applying Environment Correction factor using forecast model outputs of
Precipitable water and humidity.
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Validation of rainfall using Ground based DWR and rain gauge
analysis and fine-tuning of algorithm.
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Sensitivity studies to derive QPE over various possible spatial and temporal
scales.
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Generation of rainfall products on daily, pentad, monthly and seasonal
scales.
data, error
Flow Chart for IMSRA Algorithm
INSAT TIR, WV Data
3 Hourly Image
Conversion from
Grey Count to TBs
Look Up Table for
Calibration
Grid Average of
IR TBs (0.250x0.250)
Satellite Microwave
Rainfall (TRMM/SSMI)
IR and WV - Cloud
Classification
Collocation of IR
TBs and MW
Rainfall
Grid Avg. Rainfall
(0.250x0.250)
Estimation of
Rainfall
Model PW
& RH Forecast
PW & RH Correction
Rainfall Validation/ Fine Tuning
(DWR/SFRG)
Corrected Rainfall
Estimation
Final Rain Rate, Daily, Pentad,
Monthly & Seasonal Rainfall
Fortnightly Rainfall, June 1-August 24, 2011
Cumulative Total Rainfall, June 1-August 24, 2011
Cumulative Total Rainfall June 1 –August 31
Validation of Satellite Data Derived Rainfall
Satellite Data
IMD Data
Rainfall Based Soil Moisture and Crop Prospect Assessment
Soil Moisture Availability Modeling Schema
Soil Moisture based Assessment of Crop Situation (SMACS)
Available Soil Moisture (ASM) in
%
July 01 – 15, 2008
July 01 – 15, 2009
Colour Codes:
Red to Yellow (ASM < 50 ): Not
suitable for sowing of Crops.
Requires irrigation for sowing.
Green to Blue:
Coarse Cereals.
Suitable
for
Deep Blue: Suitable for Rice.
July 01 – 15, 2010
July 01 – 15, 2011
Note:
Suitability does not imply crops
have been sown it depends on
various other factors.
Not suitable does not imply that
no crops are sown as irrigation of
the fields is possible.
Weekly Assessment of Progress in Kharif Rice Acreage
August 20, 2011
August 25, 2011
August 31, 2011
Rainfed rice Area Sown = 30.51 M ha
Relative Deviations -7.3 % (w.r.t. 2010)
+6.3 % (2009 - poor rainfall year)
Normal and Deficit Monsoon years Comparison
Validation With In-season Crop Area Estimates
Conclusion
• Satellite Data Derived Rainfall Provided Good Information on Spatial
Distribution.
• Soil Moisture based Assessment of Crop Situation (SMACS Model)
found to be in effective in Forecasting the Crop Prospect Early in the
Season.
• Integration of Water Release in Canal Commands would Increase the
Effectiveness of Model in Irrigated Areas.
• Validation with Mid-Season Estimation of Cropped Area has Confirmed
Good Performance of Model.
Opportunity to AFRICAN Researchers
Initiated in the year 2010
C V Raman International Fellowship for African Researchers
for Research in India
Opportunity to African Researchers to Conduct Collaborative Research /
Training for 1 to 12 Months Duration at Universities and Research Institutions in
India
Features
• Supporting up to one year of research work in India in the area of science and
technology
• Monthly sustenance allowance
• Additional contingency grant
• To and fro airfare by economy class
• Total of 8 fellowships per country
Types of Fellowships
• Post Doctoral Fellowship: Duration 6 months. Maximum of 2 fellowships for
each or one fellowship thereof subject to 12 man-months.
• Visiting Fellowship: Duration 3 months. Maximum 3 fellowships.
• Senior Fellowship: Duration 1 month. Maximum 3 fellowships.
For information see: www.ficci.com
MT-Products Validation using Data over African Sites
Megha-Tropiques is a joint ISRO-CNES programme to study the tropical
atmosphere including the convective cloud systems known to strongly influence
weather and climate.
Payloads on Megha-Tropiques
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Microwave imager, MADRAS, aimed at measurements for precipitation, cloud liquid
water content, ocean surface winds and total water vapour.
Humidity sounder, SAPHIR.
ScaRAB radiometer for top of the atmosphere radiation budget measurements.
Integrated GPS Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) Receiver.
Africa has a different vertical temperature, humidity and wind structure compared to
Indian region. It is important to understand how the retrieved products are sensitive
to the local vertical profiles.
African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) and some more sites.
For Details Contact: [email protected]
Acknowledgements:
CRAM Organizers and GEO Secretariat
Presentation Material:
Dr Manab Chakraborty
Dr Sushma Panigrahy
Dr P.K. Pal
THANK YOU