Transcript Strategic Development of Bioenergy

Strategic Development
of Bioenergy in the
Western States
Task 3: Spatial Analysis and Supply
Curve Development
Bryan Jenkins, Nathan Parker, Peter Tittmann, Quinn Hart,
Joshua Cunningham, Mui Lay—University of California, Davis
Objectives
• Assess the potential biofuel supply from
biomass resources in the Western United States
• Develop facility cost and spatially-explicit
feedstock and product supply models to
optimize biofuel facility siting and scale
• Quantify optimal biofuel amounts by feedstock
and conversion technology types and feedstock
and fuel prices
• Examine sensitivity of supply to policy and
development alternatives
Approach
Mixed Integer Linear
• Geographic Information System (GIS) model for
spatial analysis
• Mixed-integer linear optimization model to solve
optimal biofuel system design using input from
GIS
Participants
•
UC Davis
– Task lead
– GIS/Optimization modeling
– Input identification and analysis, quality control
•
Antares Group, Inc
– Conversion technology costs
•
Kansas State University
– Agricultural resource/energy crops
•
US Forest Service
– Forest resource
•
California Biomass Collaborative
– Municipal resource
•
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
– Infrastructure and database support
•
WGA, USDA, USDOE, California Energy Commission PIER Program,
UC Davis STEPS Program, CSTARS
– Project support
Task Organization
Bio-refinery
Site Selection
Mapping of
Feedstock
Network Analysis
of Transportation
Costs
Optimization
Mapping of
Fuel Supply
Supply
Curves
GIS Spatial Analysis
• Feedstock mapping
• Biorefinery location analysis
• Network Analysis
Biomass Resource
Procurement Cost
18
Available Feedtock [B GGE]
16
14
12
10
8
tallow
straw
stover
msw
grease
forest
corn
bio
ovw
hec
6
4
2
0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Cost [$/TON]
$80
$90
$100 $110 $120
Mapping Biomass
Resources
Siting Criteria for
Potential Biorefineries
GIS Network Analysis
• Methodology
– Develop road, rail and marine transportation
networks.
– Calculate transportation cost matrix from
feedstock locations to potential biorefinery
locations
– Calculate fuel transportation cost from
biorefinery to closest distribution terminal.
GIS Network Analysis
Network Nodes
• Supply
– County centroid
– Municipal/other facility point source
• Supply accumulation points
– Inter-Modal facilities equipped to transfer biomass from
road to rail and rail/road to marine.
• Potential biorefinery locations
• Product accumulation points
– Inter-Modal facilities equipped to transfer liquid fuel from
rail, road or pipeline to marine.
• Terminals
– Product endpoint for mixing with petroleum fuels
GIS Network Analysis
Network Connectivity
• Road
– Transport feedstock from source to inter-modal or refinery.
• Marine
– Transport feedstock from inter-modal facility to refinery
– Transport product from refinery to terminal
• Rail
– Transport feedstock from inter-modal facility to refinery
– Transport product from refinery to terminal
Geographic Network
GIS Network Analysis
Cities / Population from National Atlas
Inter-modal Facilities from BTS
Roads/Marine/Rail from BTS
Terminals from OPIS/STALSBY
Facilities from EPA EnviroFacts
Matching Feedstocks
and Technologies
EHF
Agricultural Cellulosic
EF
FAME
FAHC
X
Corn grain
PY
FTD
X
X
X
Seed Oil
Z
Z
Animal Fats
X
X
Forest Biomass
X
X
X
Municipal solid waste
Y
Y
Y
Waste grease
Y
County level data =
X
City level data =
Y
Facility level data =
Z
Y
Matching Feedstocks
and Technologies
Optimization Model
• Methodology
– Mixed integer-linear programming model of
biofuel industry.
– Objective: minimize annual cost to produce a
given quantity of biofuels.
– Single technology models and a separate
integrated model with all technologies
• Reference assumptions
– Conversion costs are linearized functions
– All other costs are constant with scale
Simple Model
Schematic
Price
Levels
Biomass
Types
Biomass
Supply Points
Fuel Distribution
Potential
Biorefinery Sites Terminals
Fijfp
Xjt Yfjt Ybjt
Sifp
Pifp
p
DCjk
TCij
f
i
j
k
Model Formulation
• Minimize annual cost of production
– Sum of feedstock procurement, transportation, conversion, and
fuel distribution costs for annual production.
• Subject to
– Biomass leaving a supply point at a price level must be less than
the maximum supply.
– Biofuel produced at a biorefinery must be less than the biofuel
potential of the biomass entering the biorefinery.
– Biofuel quantity produced at a biorefinery must be less than the
maximum biorefinery size for that technology.
– Biofuel cannot be produced at a location unless the fixed cost
has been paid.
– The total biofuel produced must equal the biofuel demanded for a
given model run.
F
ijfp
 Supply ifp
j
Model Equations
Maximize:



Cost   PCifp  DCijf  Fijfp   at  X jt   bt  Yf fjt  ct  Yb jt    TC jt  Yb jt (1)
ijfp
jt 
f
 jt
F
Subject to:
ijfp
 Supply ifp
j
 energy _ content  Yb
 F   Yf
t
jt
 Demand
(2)
(3)
jt
fjt
(4)
Yb j   f  Yf fj
(5)
ijfp
ip
t
f
 Yf
fj
M Xj
(6)
f
Fijfp , Yf fj , Yb j  0
(7)
Linearized Conversion
Costs
500
450
y = 1.0493x + 21.089
2
R = 0.9995
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
$5.50
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Facility Size (10k tons per year)
350
400
Unit Cost of Conversion ($/gal)
Annualized Cost (M$)
400
$5.00
$4.50
Antares Model
Linear FIt
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
0
50
100
Biorefinery Size (MGY)
150
Integrated Model
Architecture
Modified routes,
sources,
destinations
Feedstock
Transportation
Cities
Facilities
Postgresql
PostGIS
ESRI
Network Analyst
Simplified Costs
Summaries
Maps
GAMS
Modeling
Supply
Curves
Results
•
•
•
•
Individual Technology Supply Curves
Combined Model Supply Curve
Type of Biomass
Maps
Supply Curves for
Individual Technologies
$6.00
$5.00
Cost ($/GGE)
$4.00
$3.00
Corn Ethanol
$2.00
LCE
FAHC
FAME
$1.00
Pyrolysis
FTD
$0.00
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Quantity of Biofuel (million GGE)
10,000
Supply Curve for All
Biofuels
$5.00
$4.50
$4.00
Cost ($/gge)
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
Quantity of Biofuel (million gge/year)
15,000
Type of Biomass
Consumed
Quantity of Biomass (1,000 tons)
120,000
Corn
100,000
Straw & Stover
MSW
Herbaceous Energy Crops
80,000
Forest
Orchard/Vineyard Waste
Tallow
60,000
Waste Grease
Virgin Oils
40,000
20,000
0
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
Biofuel Price ($/gge)
$4.00
Contributions to Cost
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
Distribution
Conversion
Transportation
Procurement
Cost ($/GGE)
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
320
2,714
5,107
7,501
9,894
12,288
Quantity of Biofuel (million GGE)
14,681
$1.30 per GGE
$1.50 per GGE
$1.75 per GGE
$2.00 per GGE
$2.30 per GGE
$2.50 per GGE
$2.75 per GGE
$3.05 per GGE
$4.05 per GGE
Sensitivity
• To be completed
– Capital Cost +/- 25%
– Coproduct Value
– Tax Incentives
– Required Fuel Mix
Conclusions
• ~4 billion gallons of gasoline equivalent biofuels could
be produced at approximately $2/GGE
• ~12 billion gallons of gasoline equivalent biofuels could
be produced at approximately $3/GGE
• The base model costs favor LCE for cellulosic biomass
resources and FAHC for oil/grease resources.
• Costs used need further inspection and validation
• Sensitivity analysis needed to investigate range of
potential outcomes
Future Analysis
• Completion of analysis for Western US
• Model extension to entire US
– Proposal in review by USDA
• Model extension to include Canada
– In discussion
• Incorporate analysis of potential changes to land use
based upon increased demand for feedstock
• Incorporate seasonal and probabilistic effects, add other
sustainability and LCA aspects, explore alternative
economy of scale formulations
Extra Slides
Target Price Analysis
$5.00
$4.50
Cost ($/gge)
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
Target Price $2.03/gge
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
Quantity at Target
Price = 3.83 BGGE
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
Quantity of Biofuel (million gge/year)
15,000
Transportation Costs
Trucking
Liquids
Bulk solids
Loading/unloading
$0.02/gallon
$5/wet ton
Time dependent
$32/hr/truckload
$29/hr/truckload
Distance dependent
$1.30/mile/truckload
$1.20/mile/truckload
Truck Capacity
8,000 gallons
25 wet tons
Comments
Includes labor and capital
Includes fuel, insurance,
maintenance, and permitting
Moisture content varies with
feedstock
Rail
Loading/unloading
Fixed Cost
Distance dependent
Rail Car Capacity
Liquid
Bulk Solids
$0.015/gallon
$5/wet ton
$8.80/100 gallons
$27/wet ton
$0.0075/mile/100 gallons
$0.023/mile/wet ton
33,000 gallons
106.5 wet tons
Transportation Costs (2)
Marine
Loading/unloading
Fixed Cost
Distance dependent
Barge Capacity
Liquid
Bulk Solids
$0.015/gallon
$5/wet ton
$1.40/100 gallons
$3.85/wet ton
$0.015/mile/100 gallons
$0.043/mile/wet ton
1.26 million gallons
4,000 wet tons
Biomass Properties
Biomass type
Moisture Content (% weight) Density (tons/1,000 gallons)
Forest Wood Chips
50%
-
Straws (barley, oats, rye, wheat)
15%
-
Stover
15%
-
Orchard/Vineyard Waste
35%
-
Virgin Oil
-
3.86
Yellow Grease
-
3.24
Tallow/lard
-
3.24
Conversion Costs
Fixed Cost
(million $)
Feed Dependent
($/ton)
Fuel Dependent
($/gallon)
Maximum
Capacity
a
b
c
M
Grain Ethanol: Dry Mill
Wet Mill
$2.22
$13.03
-
$0.32
$0.21
100 MGY
300 MGY
Lignocellulsic Ethanol
$6.73
-
$0.61
100 MGY
FT Diesel
$21.11
$105
-
5 million tons
Pyrolysis Oil
$2.13
$43.3
$0.46
800,000 tons
Biodiesel: Yellow Grease
Virgin oil/Tallow
$0.73
$1.66
$181
$62.3
-
320,000 tons
320,000 tons
Hydrotreament Diesel
$1.55
$36.6
-
800,000 tons
Model Parameter