Transcript InternetHistory05 - University of California, Berkeley

Evolution of the Internet
in the Post-PC Era
(1965-2010+)
Randy H. Katz
The United Microelectronics Corporation Distinguished Professor
Computer Science Division, EECS Department
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-1776 USA
[email protected]
1
Common Questions about the
Internet
•
•
•
•
•
Who invented the Internet?
Who owns the Internet?
How does the Internet scale?
Is it safe to use the Internet?
Where is the Internet going next?
2
Evolution of the Computer
First Color TV
Broadcast, 1953
HBO Launched,
1972
Telephone,
1876
Interactive TV,
1990
Early Wireless
Phones, 1978
Computer
+ Modem
1957
First PC
Altair,
1974
IBM
PC,
1981
Handheld Portable
Phones, 1990
Apple
Apple
IBM
Mac, Powerbook, Thinkpad,
1984
1990
1992
Eniac, 1947
HP
Palmtop,
1991
Pentium
PC, 1993
Apple
Newton,
1993
Red Herring, 10/99
3
Evolution of the Computer
Atari Home
Pong, 1972
Pentium
PC, 1993
Game Consoles
Personal Digital Assistants
Digital VCRs (TiVo, ReplayTV)
Communicators
Smart Telephones
E-Toys (Furby, Aibo)
Network
Computer,
1996
Free
PC, 1999
Sega
Dreamcast,
1999
Internet-enabled
Smart Phones,
1999
Pentium II
PC, 1997
Apple
iMac, 1998
Palm VII
PDA, 1999
Proliferation of diverse
end devices and access networks
Red Herring, 10/99
4
“X-Internet” Beyond the PC
Internet Computers
Internet Users
93
Million
Today’s Internet
407 Million
Automobiles
663 Million
Telephones
1.5 Billion
X-Internet
Electronic Chips
30 Billion
Forrester Research, May 2001
5
“X-Internet” Beyond the PC
Millions
15000
10000
PC
Internet
5000
2010
2009
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2008
X
Internet
Year
Forrester Research, May 2001
6
The Shape of Things NOW!
• Siemens SL45
– A cellular phone with voice
command, voice dialing, intelligent
text for short messages
– An MP3 player & headset
– A digital voice recorder
– Supports “Mobile Internet” with a
built-in WAP Browser
– Can store
» 45 minutes of music
» 5 hours of voice notes
» “Unlimited” addresses/phone
numbers
7
After the PC …
•
•
•
•
Not about gadgets or access technologies
About services and applications
Increasing, not decreasing, diversity
Enabled by computing embedded in
communications fabric
8
Internet vs. Telephone Net
• Strengths
– Intelligence at ends
– Decentralized control
– Operates over heterogeneous
access technologies
• Weaknesses
– No differential service
– Variable performance delay
– New functions difficult to
add since end nodes must be
upgraded
– No trusted infrastructure
• Strengths
– No end-point intelligence
– Heterogeneous devices
– Excellent voice performance
• Weaknesses
– Achieves performance by
overallocating resources
– Difficult to add new services
to “Intelligent Network” due
to complex call model
– Expensive approach for
reliability
9
Internet Growth
120
200
Million
Servers
150
80
Million
U.S. Surfers
100
40
50
0
Annual Growth Rate > 50%
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
0
Annual Growth Rate > 20%
The Industry Standard, 2 July 2001
10
The ARPANet
SRI
940
UCSB
IBM 360
IMPs
Utah
PDP 10
UCLA
Sigma 7
• Paul Baran
– RAND Corp, early 1960s
– Communications networks
that would survive a major
enemy attack
• ARPANet: Research
vehicle for “Resource
Sharing Computer
Networks”
BBN team that implemented
the interface message processor
– 2 September 1969: UCLA
first node on the ARPANet
– December 1969: 4 nodes
connected by phone lines
11
12
ARPANet Evolves into Internet
ARPANet
SATNet
PRNet
1965
TCP/IP
1975
Web Hosting
Multiple ISPs
Internet2 Backbone
Internet Exchanges
NSFNet
Deregulation & ISP
Commercialization ASP
AIP
WWW
1985
1995
2005
Application Hosting
ASP: Application Service Provider
AIP: Application Infrastructure
Provider (e-commerce tookit, etc.)
13
14
15
Digex
Backbone
Qwest
IP
Backbone
(Late
1999)
GTE
Internetworking
Backbone
Parallel Backbones
16
17
Network “Cloud”
18
Regional Nets + Backbone
Regional
Net
Regional
Net
Regional
Net
Backbone
Regional
Net
Regional
Net
LAN
LAN
Regional
Net
LAN
19
Backbones + NAPs + ISPs
ISP
ISP
ISP
NAP
Backbones
Business
ISP
LAN
LAN
NAP
ISP
Consumer
ISP
LAN
Dial-up
20
Core Networks + Access Networks
DSL
Always on
Cable
Head Ends
@home
Covad
Cingular
Cell
Cell
Cell
LAN
NAP
Core
Networks
NAP
ISP
Satellite
Fixed Wireless
Sprint
LAN
AOL
LAN
Dial-up
21
Computers Inside the Core
DSL
Always on
Cable
Head Ends
@home
Covad
Cingular
Cell
Cell
Cell
LAN
NAP
NAP
ISP
Satellite
Fixed Wireless
Sprint
LAN
AOL
LAN
Dial-up
22
Services Within the Network:
Content Distribution
“Internet Grid”
Parallel Network Backbones
Internet Exchange Points
Co-Location
Scalable Servers
Web
Caches
23
P2P Services in the Internet:
Napster, Gnutella, Freenet, …
Directory Service
Register my copy
Find me a copy
...
Steve Miller
Like an Eagle
Steve Miller
Space Cowboy
...
Look here
Grid computing: sharing resources/enabling collaboration
24
Services Within the Network:
Streaming Media
Broadcasters
Content
Broadcast
Network
Content Distribution
Through Multicast
Overlay Network
Load Balancing Thru
Server Redirection;
Edge
Servers
Inter-ISP Redirection
Peering
Redirection
Fabric
Content
Broadcast
Management
Platform and
Tools
Clients
Steve McCanne
25
Scalable Services:
Redirection and Load Balancing
Redirection
Delay + Load Information
26
Scalable Services:
Denial of Service
Redirection
Black Hole
27
The iMode Story
• 24 million Internet-capable
cellular phone subscribers (7/01)
– Charge by data volume, not connect time
• NTTDoCoMo becomes world’s
largest ISP!
– 4500 test 3G subscribers (5/01)
• Most frequent used apps:
–
–
–
–
Voice + text messaging
Animated cartoons + special ringing tones
Computer games
Music/image distribution
• Japanese teenage girls driving the
competitive development of new
services!
28
Common Questions about the
Internet
•
•
•
•
•
Who invented the Internet?
Who owns the Internet?
How does the Internet scale?
Is it safe to use the Internet?
Where is the Internet going next?
• How can I make money on the Internet?
29
A New Kind of Internet
Applications
(Portals, E-Commerce,
E-Tainment, Media)
Appl Infrastructure Services
(Distribution, Caching,
Searching, Hosting)
AIP
ISV
Application-specific Servers
(Streaming Media, Transformation)
ASP
Internet
Data Centers
ISP
CLEC
Application-specific
Overlay Networks
(Multicast Tunnels, Mgmt Svrcs)
Global Packet Network
Internetworking
(Connectivity)
30
The Post-PC Era
• Not about specific Information Appliances
• Services spanning access networks, to achieve
high performance/manage end device diversity
• Builds on the New Internet
– Opening up of the connectivity “cloud”
– Embedding computing in the communications fabric
• Pervasive support for “intelligent” services
– Near you for faster access, more personalized, more localized
– Scalable to deal with surges in demand as needed
31
32