Transcript Document map - Analysys Mason

Research forecast report
Business data services in Europe:
growth opportunities and forecasts 2009–2014
Margaret Hopkins
June 2009
Business data services in Europe
2
Contents
Contents
Slide no.
3. Document map – Executive summary
4. Spending on data network services is holding
up during the recession, but users are looking
for better value
5. Service providers are looking to Ethernet over
copper to increase the size of the addressable
market
6. Document map – Introduction and scope
7. This report examines the impact of the recession
on demand for data networks
8. This report forecasts spending on business data
services split by service, technology, site and
organisation type
9. Spending is allocated to services and access
technologies based on site type and market trends
10. Document map – Outsourcing and new
applications counter the effects of recession
11. The management focus on cashflow is changing
the way investment decisions are made
12. IP connectivity continues to be the priority, and new
applications are driving an increase in demand
13. Ethernet continues to be an attractive access
technology, and Ethernet over copper will add
to its appeal
Slide no.
14.
Document map – Flexible offerings appeal
to businesses
15.
Customers are looking for control and flexibility
to ensure the best possible value for money
16.
Document map – Actions
17.
Actions
18.
Document map – Author, copyright and key
to acronyms
19.
Author
20.
Copyright
21.
Key to acronyms
22.
Document map – List of figures and tables
23.
List of figures and tables
24.
Document map – About Analysys Mason
25.
About Analysys Mason
26.
Research from Analysys Mason
27.
Consulting from Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: Executive summary
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Executive summary
Spending on data network services is holding up during
the recession, but users are looking for better value
Table 1: Demand-side drivers of change in the business data services market [Source: Analysys Mason, 2009]
Demand-side driver
Supply-side response
Budgets
After recovering from the initial shock of the recession,
companies are looking to IT systems to deliver
competitive advantage, and budgets are holding up
surprisingly well
Increased competition in a declining market is driving
reductions in prices
Legacy
Legacy technologies are still widely used, but the
recession is encouraging businesses to replace them
more rapidly in order to reduce costs
Network operators are postponing plans to switch off ATM
and FR networks because customers do not want to be
rushed
Access
Businesses are increasingly likely to access IP-VPNs
using Ethernet on fibre or DSL. Spend on leased pointto-point circuits is starting to stabilise in many countries
after years of steady decline
Operators are starting to deploy Ethernet over copper
widely, and service providers are starting to offer DSL
access to both Layer 2 and Layer 3 VPNs as standard
Managed
services
More companies are finding that the Internet and IPsec Service providers are offering additional features such
can be an acceptable substitute for managed services, as improved control and monitoring, and end-to-end classbut some are outsourcing data networks to reduce
of-service guarantees to differentiate their services
costs
Meredith Rose of the EVUA says, “Everyone is moving to cloud computing and SaaS. QoS is an issue when attempting to
support all of these collaborative tools – especially across multiple carrier infrastructures – and network support becomes as
challenging as rocket science. In this economic climate, companies don’t want to hire rocket scientists – they prefer to outsource
the network to carriers or systems integrators.”
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
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Executive summary
Service providers are looking to Ethernet over copper
to increase the size of the addressable market
Table 2: Supply-side drivers of change in the business data services market [Source: Analysys Mason, 2009]
Supply-side driver
Demand-side response
Legacy
As operators roll out NGNs, they hope to switch off
legacy networks such as FR, but face resistance from
users
Users are still concerned about getting the same levels
of performance from circuit emulation – particularly where
timing signals are used for control. Others are avoiding
the cost of change during the recession
Access
Ethernet access is still not ubiquitous. Next-generation
access should make new offers to small businesses
possible. Operators are starting to deploy VDSL2, but
PONs are still in development. Operators are also
starting to roll out Ethernet over copper, which will erode
demand for mass-market broadband services
Companies choose Ethernet fibre access where
they require multiple megabits per second and DSL
access where their requirements are lower or fibre is
not available. Cost pressures are accelerating the
migration to Ethernetbased services because their
price per megabit per second is typically one quarter
of that for an SDH leased line, or less
Managed
services
Innovative service providers are rolling out E-LAN and
VPLSs to complement their IP-MPLS offerings
Customers often fail to see the benefits of such offerings
and prefer to continue using IP-based services. Providers
report that they frequently need to explain the advantages
of anytoany networks, and that hubandspoke architecture
remains common
Andy McEwan of ntl:Telewest says, “We are seeing continued spend despite the economic downturn. Our retail revenue
remains strong – possibly that’s partly because people are coming to us because circuits from us will save them money.”
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: Introduction and scope
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
7
Business data services in Europe
Introduction and scope
This report examines the impact of the recession on
demand for data networks
Figure 1: Spending on business data services in Europe,
2006–2014 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2009]

This report considers the impact that the
recession could have on demand for retail fixed
data services in the MAN and WAN. There is
much uncertainty on whether this downturn has
reached its lowest point, and on when and how
quickly economic activity will start to grow again.

The recession should have a lesser impact on
telecoms than on other sectors – partly because
data networks have become essential to the
operation of most companies, and effective
telecoms allow companies to reduce travel.
However, spending on data services will decline
by EUR2 billion between 2008 and 2009.

Businesses are focusing on maximising cashflow,
which is inhibiting investment. However, ICT is
helping companies to target opportunities created
by the demise of competitors in some markets.
30
20
15
10
5
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2006
Spending (EUR billion)
25
Eric Pivot of Completel says, “In the middle market (200–5000 users), managers are asking us to reduce the price by 10% or
20% – even if that means less services. For large customers, I have not noticed a policy of reducing prices, but they want to get
more services for the same price.”
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
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Business data services in Europe
Introduction and scope
This report forecasts spending on business data services
split by service, technology, site and organisation type


This report is an update of Analysys Mason’s previous business data services report.1 The forecasts draw
upon our fixed telecoms market forecasts for Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe.
Forecasts of spending on business data services to 2014 are provided for France, Germany, Italy, Poland,
Spain, Sweden, the UK and Europe as a whole, split by service and access technology, as well as by site
and organisation type. The full set of forecasts, and definitions of the categories shown in Table 3, are
contained in the data annex that accompanies this report.
Table 3: Categories used in the forecasts [Source: Analysys Mason, 2009]
Dimension
Categories
Services
Internet access, point-to-point, IP-VPN and Layer 2 VPN
Technology
Broadband, FR, ATM, Ethernet, and SDH, WDM and other
Site
Large, corporate small and SME small
Murray Cooke of Cooke Telecoms Services says, “Large companies are now starting to use Ethernet in metro networks,
complementing FR/MPLS for national and global networks, with pair-bonding making broadband access viable. Small companies
are generally finding the Internet sufficiently effective. Ethernet is starting to expand its role into national and global networks.”
1
See Hopkins, M., Business data services in Europe: market drivers and forecasts 2008–2013, Analysys Mason (Cambridge, 2008).
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
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Business data services in Europe
Introduction and scope
Spending is allocated to services and access technologies
based on site type and market trends
Table 4: Likelihood that spending on business data services
will be allocated to each service and access technology
[Source: Analysys Mason, 2009]
Access
technology
Service type
Internet
access
IP-VPN
Layer 2
VPN
Point-topoint
●●●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
Broadband
●●●
●●●
●
N/a1
SDH, WDM
and other
●
●
●
●●
Ethernet
ATM
FR
Key to likelihood: ● = somewhat likely
1

Table 4 indicates the likelihood that spending on
business data services will be allocated to a
given service or access technology.

Spending is allocated to services and access
technologies based on site type and the
dynamics of the market. Market information is
derived from interviews with end users, vendors
and service providers.

In addition, for VPNs, spending on management
services is broken out from the totals.
●● = likely ●●● = very likely
N/a = Not applicable.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: Outsourcing and new applications
counter the effects of recession
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
11
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
The management focus on cashflow is changing the way
investment decisions are made

Cashflow is becoming the overriding priority as the recession puts pressure on company finances, and this
affects investment decisions in two ways:


businesses are less willing to make changes because there are always costs associated with change
it is no longer sufficient to demonstrate an ROI over two or three years – an investment will be
approved only if savings are achieved in the current accounting period.

Businesses will not make cutbacks to their data networks to generate savings unless they close sites,
because data networks have become an essential utility for most companies.

During the past few years, buyers have expected to get more services for the same amount of money.
This trend has been reinforced during the recession, which has also driven many companies to look for
cost reductions as their contracts come up for renewal.

However, companies in some sectors have seen competitors cease trading, and are investing in ICT to take
advantage of the opportunity to increase their market shares. In addition, demand for metro Ethernet
services in the public sector, for linking offices, schools and hospitals, continues unabated.

Outsourcing offers some companies an attractive means of reducing headcount and costs in the short term
– particularly for those that have complex networks that require highly skilled staff.
Julian Payne of Cable and Wireless says, “Our customers are not cutting back because they want new logistics, supply chain
and EPOS applications that drive efficiencies in their businesses. Enterprise-wide applications are eating up their bandwidth and
they reach tipping point with their network – most networks are four, five or six years old now and reaching their capacity limits.”
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
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Business data services in Europe
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
IP connectivity continues to be the priority, and new
applications are driving an increase in demand
Figure 2: Spending on business data services in Europe by
service type, 2006–2014 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2009]

12
8

Companies deploy IP VPNs for their class-ofservice benefits, and because they enable them to
prioritise mission-critical applications such as
EPOS and real-time video. However, end-to-end
class-of-service support can still be a problem,
particularly across NNIs.

Pressure on travel budgets is driving an increase
in video conferencing.

Ethernet-based Layer 2 VPNs do not interest all
businesses, but appeal to players in the finance
sector and others that value any-to-any networks
or the ability to keep IP addresses private.
6
4
2
Point-to-point
IP-VPN
Layer 2 VPN
Internet access
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
2006
Spending (EUR billion)
10
Most companies’ priority is to have IP connectivity
to their applications. Small sites and companies
may use IPsec VPNs over Internet connections
to minimise costs. IP-VPN and Internet access
services will continue to dominate spending.
An MNC communications manager we interviewed indicated that the company does not rely on carriers for QoS. Instead, it
buys E-line to its regional centres and implements its own QoS using in-house IT expertise.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
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Business data services in Europe
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Ethernet continues to be an attractive access technology,
and Ethernet over copper will add to its appeal
Figure 3: Spending on business data services in Poland by
access technology, 2006–2014 [Source: Analysys Mason,
2009]

Companies with in-house IT expertise
choose Ethernet connectivity because of the
price/performance equation. Ethernet is the
fastestgrowing access technology – particularly in
Eastern European countries such as Poland,
where businesses have less legacy technology.

The price advantage of Ethernet access stems
largely from the economies of scale that result in
low interface costs, which allow service providers
to overspecify links and offer bandwidth in
1Mbit/s increments using software control.

Sites that require access speeds of 5Mbit/s or
more can justify Ethernet over fibre. Small sites
are using broadband access, but Ethernet firstmile technologies over copper are starting
to become available, and these will change the
economics for small sites.
Spending (EUR million)
300
250
200
150
100
50
Ethernet
FR
SDH, WDM and other
ATM
Broadband
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0
Adrian Hobbins of Exponential-e says, “Demand for Ethernet services is increasing exponentially – particularly that for anytoany, multi-site, VPLS Layer 2 Ethernet services. Ethernet services enable convergence and give rise to significant economies of
scale. Companies don’t need to seek additional training on WAN skills or hire WAN specialists. In addition, CPE costs are lower
with VPLS because it requires smaller and fewer routers than MPLS solutions.”
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
15
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Customers are looking for control and flexibility to ensure
the best possible value for money

Communications managers are trying to maximise the value for money for their networks, which makes
them particularly interested in two service features.

The ability to monitor application performance over the network and to change the
configuration in response to changing demands: Users want to have greater visibility of what is
happening in their networks and in the ‘cloud’, and they want the information to be presented in a way
that relates to taking remedial action – not just as reams of KPIs. Service providers tend to provide
average figures for long periods rather than identify short-lived problems with data peaks. They are
also inclined to bury useful information in masses of positive statistics. Both approaches reduce the
value of the provider’s service to the end user.

The scope to reduce bandwidth on underused links, with a commensurate reduction in price:
Companies that have migrated to Ethernet access have often found that they have ordered more
bandwidth than they need in practice – particularly if they have then implemented moresophisticated,
class-of-service-based traffic management. A contract that allows businesses to reduce costs when
capacity is not needed will be very appealing during difficult economic times, when budgets are under
pressure. Service providers may be able to offer this to established customers if they have recouped
the initial outlay on equipment.
John Lyons of Thomson Reuters says, “If the only purpose of network monitoring is to demonstrate KPIs once a month, it is of
limited use. Application-based monitoring is a perennial problem, and the adoption of Ethernet hasn’t done anything to fix it – the
system guys blame the network guys and vice versa. If the service provider starts to see anomalies in the network and generates
an early warning and does something proactive, that is a service that would interest me.”
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: Actions
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
17
Actions
Actions
Service providers should:

prioritise customer care: Users are looking for responsive service providers that will collaborate with them
to get the most out of their networks during the recession. They are becoming sceptical about SLAs –
although they are essential, managing to SLAs does not provide the service they need. Service providers
should help customers to identify cost savings. Responsiveness will be a key factor in customer retention

give users greater control of their networks: Budget restrictions are giving new impetus to the demand
for control over networks. Service providers should allow customers to monitor network performance in real
time and to make configuration changes so that they can maximise the benefit from their investment

offer contracts that are as flexible as possible: Customers want to be in control of their networks and
spending. Providing services that adapt to customers’ changing needs will be an attractive selling point

deliver end-to-end, class-of-service support: Customers often complain that they cannot obtain the
classofservice guarantees that they need – particularly for services that span multiple countries and
networks. The increased use of real-time collaboration tools and telepresence has exacerbated this issue

offer managed services to support collaboration: Users are increasingly using collaboration tools to
reduce travel, and many are keen to outsource the networks that support them to reduce salary costs

prepare an E-LAN offer and be willing to educate customers: Service providers report that customers
are interested in any-to-any networks and E-LANs, but only if they invest the time and effort required to
explain their benefits. Providers that fail to educate customers risk losing business to competitors that do.
The CIO of a global bank, speaking at an industry conference, emphasised the need for an overall master service agreement
that can accommodate changing requirements. He indicated that managing to the SLA will not deliver the service he needs.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: Author, copyright and key to acronyms
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
19
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
Author
Margaret Hopkins (Analysys Mason Associate) is Principal Analyst with Exegesys and supplies Analysys
Mason with enterprise research. Margaret specialises in fixed and mobile voice and data services for
enterprise and SME customers. She has produced research for Analysys Mason in the areas of IP telephony,
FMC voice, data services in the WAN, managed services for business, broadband access, network cost
modelling and value-added services for residential customers. She has produced a number of prescient
reports on areas such as Ethernet in the WAN, NGNs, and IP local-loop and Internet telephony. She regularly
contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms issues and has been quoted by the Financial
Times, Global Telecoms Business, Telecommunications Online and Total Telecom. Margaret has been
associated with Analysys Mason for 20 years. She has an MSc in Telecommunications and Information
Systems and started her career in the Post Office Telecommunications Long Range Planning Department.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank all those who assisted in the preparation of this report, especially all those who
gave their time for interviews: Murray Cooke, Managing Director, Cooke Telecoms Services; Ursel Graubman,
Market Intelligence and Analysis, T-Systems; Adrian Hobbins, CTO, Exponential-e; John Lyons, Global Head of
Network Architecture and Design, Sales and Trading, Thomson Reuters; Andy McEwan, Senior Manager,
Ethernet and Leased Lines Portfolio, ntl:Telewest; Julian Payne, Head of Carrier Relations, Cable and
Wireless; Eric Pivot, IP VPN Product Manager, Completel; Meredith Rose, Chairman, EVUA; and Walter
Zielinski, Business and Technology Leader, Infovide-Matrix. In addition, the author is grateful to the following
individuals from Analysys Mason for their contributions to this report: Mark Main, Martin Scott, Richard
Thurston, Robin Bailey, Roz Roseboro and Tomasz Foltman for information and helpful suggestions; Hilary
Bailey for support with Excel models; and Mark Chambers and Claire Varley for editorial support.
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Author, copyright and key to acronyms
Copyright
Published by Analysys Mason Limited, St Giles Court, 24 Castle Street, Cambridge, CB3 0AJ, UK
Tel: +44 (0)1223 460600; Fax: +44 (0)1223 452800; Email: [email protected];
Web: www.analysysmason.com/research
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© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in
any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior
written permission of the publisher.
ISBN 1 905495 91 9.
Disclaimer
Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this
publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including
consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer,
his servants, agents or any third party.
Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks
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The opinions expressed are those of the stated author only.
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Author, copyright and key to acronyms
Key to acronyms
ATM
Asynchronous transfer mode
MPLS
Multiprotocol Label Switching
CIO
Chief information officer
NGN
Next-generation core network
CPE
Customer premises equipment
NNI
Network-to-network interface
DSL
Digital subscriber line
PON
Passive optical network
E-LAN
Ethernet LAN
QoS
Quality of service
EPOS
Electronic point of sale
ROI
Return on investment
FR
Frame relay
SaaS
Software as a service
IP
Internet Protocol
SDH
Synchronous Digital Hierarchy
IP-MPLS IP Multiprotocol Label Switching
SLA
Service-level agreement
IPsec
IP security
SME
Small or medium-sized enterprise
IP-VPN
IP virtual private network
VDSL2
Very-high-bitrate digital subscriber line 2
KPI
Key performance indicator
VPLS
Virtual private LAN service
LAN
Local-area network
VPN
Virtual private network
MAN
Metropolitan-area network
WAN
Wide-area network
MNC
Multinational corporation
WDM
Wavelength division multiplexing
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: List of figures and tables
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
23
List of figures and tables
List of figures and tables
Figure 1: Spending on business data services in Europe, 2006–2014
Figure 2: Spending on business data services in Europe by service type, 2006–2014
Figure 3: Spending on business data services in Poland by access technology, 2006–2014
Table 1:
Demand-side drivers of change in the business data services market
Table 2:
Supply-side drivers of change in the business data services market
Table 3:
Categories used in the forecasts
Table 4:
Likelihood that spending on business data services will be allocated to each service and access
technology
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
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Document map: About Analysys Mason
Document map
Executive summary
Introduction and scope
Outsourcing and new applications counter the effects of recession
Flexible offerings appeal to businesses
Actions
Author, copyright and key to acronyms
List of figures and tables
About Analysys Mason
© Analysys Mason Limited 2009
Business data services in Europe
25
About Analysys Mason
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