Transcript Hypernet Bottom Line - Center for IT and e

The Hypernet Revolution
Business Model Innovation in
the Mobile Economy
What?
Why?
How?
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©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
What’s Next?
The Hypernet is the next phase of the Internet
Users, devices,
network nodes
and interactions
increase by
several orders of
magnitude, driving
dramatic
increases in
Internet scale,
speed and
complexity
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©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Rates of adoption are growing
Mobile adoption rates are increasing even faster than Internet
service adoption rates in the mid-’90s. It will pick up as wireless
devices proliferate
Growth
Mobile
Web
Internet
Time
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The Net Itself Will Fragment
PC Desktop Net
Wireless Net
Set-top Net, the last meter in the
home
Bluetooth Net and personal area
networks
Supply Chain Net, the machine-toRF transmitter-to barcode Net
Embedded Net, in devices and
environments from thermostats to
water heaters to security cameras
to walls and structures
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All of these networks
may run on TCP/IP but
not share devices,
information protocols or
interface designs with
other “nets”.
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
New challenges impact organizations, strategy, consumers
Commoditization
Peer to Peer
Complex transactions
New Money
New Competitors
And Pure Plays
Alliances
Consumer Aggregations
Disintermediation
New networks
Affected industries: finance, telecom, manufacturing, retail, software
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The Hypernet
Huge
Billions of end-points
Fragmented into interlocking Webs
–
–
–
–
–
–
PCs and game consoles
TV
Wireless (mobiles, PDAs, etc.)
Personal area networks
Machine-machine (e.g., CFN, app-app)
Pervasive, ubiquitous computing
Global – not just rich countries
New demographics (universal access)
Commonplace (“calm computing”)
Wildly different in type as well as scale from Internet
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A new business form emerges in the mobile economy
Hypernet
• Customer–
driven
• Service
enhanced
customization
Internet
Appliances
Ubiquitous
PC
Client-server
EDI
Value
creation
Virtual
Corporation
Mainframe
Dumb
• Supply-driven
• Mass
production
Business
Web
 Modular
 Loosely coupled
 Hub & spoke
 Tightly coupled
Industrial
age corp.
 Vertical
 Integrated
• Physical
• Scarce
Resources
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• Digital knowledge
• Abundance
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Where will the value be created in the mobile economy?
• Value driven
by personal
information
Customers
Context
• New products
and service
applications
Content
Commerce services
• New Networks
• Creates
value
through
management
of access
and
customer
relationship
• Transaction
and logistics
Infrastructure
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What will be the new value proposition in your business?
High
• Mobility
enables
realtime access
to data, goods,
services
• M-business is
spontaneous,
impulsive
• Experience-driven
• Event-driven
• Catalog
shopping
• Traditional
value chains
• Convenience
stores
• Telephone
shopping
Low
High
Low
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What will be the right strategy for your firm?
Continuous business model innovation will be more important
than technical innovation
Selforganizing
Alliance
Agora
Distributive
Network
Control
Enron
Value
Chain
Aggregation
Hierarchical
High
Value integration
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Low
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Impact of the Hypernet
Business Model
Key Value Proposition
Impact of Hypernet
Agora
Pricing Mechanism
Greater Liquidity
Aggregation
Selection
Value Chain
Integration
Alliance
Cooperation
Stronger Relationships
Distributive
Network
Distribution
Better Allocation
of Capacity
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Greater Convenience
Greater Efficiency
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Agora
Value Proposition: Price Mechanism
Hypernet Bottom Line: Greater Liquidity
Web-Enabled
Hypernet-Enabled
Dimension
Leveraged
Selling a rare baseball
card on eBay
Real-time bidding on
eBay
Event
Dependence
Liquidating excess
cement online
Setting liquidation
prices based on
location of a truck
Location
Dependence
Buying Power on the
California Power
Exchange
Dishwashers bidding
for cheap power during
off-hours
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Ubiquity
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Aggregation
Value Proposition: Selection
Hypernet Bottom Line: Greater Convenience
Web-Enabled
Hypernet-Enabled
Dimension
Leveraged
Shopping for an airline
ticket on Travelocity
Instant updates of any
flight delays
Event
Dependence
Transmitting a picture
of your sofa and
receiving color
recommendations
Location
Dependence
Choosing wallpaper
online
Buying groceries at
Webvan
Having your scannerenabled fridge call
Webvan each week
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Ubiquity
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Value Chain
Value Proposition: Integration
Hypernet Bottom Line: Greater Efficiency
Web-Enabled
Hypernet-Enabled
Dimension
Leveraged
Real-time sales data
from P.O.S. to
upstream shop floor
Event
Dependence
Enquiring about the
status of a PC order
Real-time scanner data
from the shop floor
Location
Dependence
Keep medical records
on line in case of an
emergency
Having your medical
records updated by
your asthma inhaler
Accessing demand
reports from downstream
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Ubiquity
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Alliance
Value Proposition: Cooperation
Hypernet Bottom Line: Stronger Relationships
Web-Enabled
Joining an automotive
“help” group online
Hypernet-Enabled
Submitting a question
from the motel where
you broke down on
vacation
Joining a singles chat
room
Having your pager alert
you to a compatible
mate across the bar
Retrieving an online
traffic report
Having your car
communicate with
other cars to smoothout traffic flows
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Dimension
Leveraged
Event
Dependence
Location
Dependence
Ubiquity
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Distributive Network
Value Proposition: Distribution
Hypernet Bottom Line: Better Allocation of
Capacity
Web-Enabled
Hypernet-Enabled
Dimension
Leveraged
Selling stocks online
Selling stocks while
playing golf
Event
Dependence
Tracking a package
online
Having a package sent
to you at the beach
Location
Dependence
Online access to the
status of a shipping
container
The shipping container
tells the ship were it
needs to go and when
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Ubiquity
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Point of View
The Hypernet is more than just buying and
selling over a cell phone.
It will lead to increasing disaggregation of
value, the creation of new forms of value, and
the redefinition of value itself.
Long term success will flow not from
technological advantage, but from creating
business models that liberate this value.
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Hypernet Technology
Range of relevant Hypernet technologies
EXAMPLES
NETWORKS
DEVICES
Networks: the building blocks of
the Hypernet, networks are
offering greater choice and
flexibility in speed, access,
geographic scope
Devices: in the physical
computing environment these are
the technologies that enable
remote access or mobility, monitor
events, or add new functions to
existing devices
ENABLING APPLICATIONS
END USER APPLICATIONS
Applications: Enabling software
and services for wireless data
communication, including both
end-user applications and the
services that support them
• Third Generation wireless
• Wireless LANs
• Personal area networks
• Ad hoc networks
• PDAs
• Mobile phones
• RFID
• Bar Codes
• Peer-to-Peer
• WAP
• I-Mode
• Instant Messaging
• Multimedia Messaging
• Unified Messaging
• PKI
• Smart cards
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Hypernet Technology
Characteristics of Hypernet technologies
Core Elements
Characteristics Implications
Wireless
Connectivity
Global
Mobility: untethered customer; mobile field force…
Persistence: always on access that follows the user…
P2P
Connectivity
Collaboration: richer forms of communication and
person-to-person contact…
Devices
Identity
Aware
Devices
State
Aware
Personalization: user-defined services and content…
more than just a miniaturized version of the desktop
computer…
Location sensitive: contextual information or services
Location
Aware
based on the users’ immediate circumstances…
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Scope of the Hypernet Program
White Papers
– The Hypernet Enabled Consumer
– User Behavior in the Hypernet
– Hypernet Technology
Industry Verticals
–
–
–
–
–
Telecommunications Industry
Retail Industry
Healthcare Industry: Wireless Healthcare
Telematics: Automotive Sector
Location-based Games
Case Studies
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–
–
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Progressive Insurance
Vindigo
NTT DoCoMo iMode
PayPal
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Hypernet Research Highlights
Hypernet Research Insights
Strategic Implications
Wireless content
distribution will rely on
intermediaries for all but
the largest providers..
Wireless transactions will
be settled by both carriers
and financials
Success will accrue to
those who create entirely
new transactions and
events in mobile contexts.
New always-on data
gathering devices will
produce streams of data on
status..
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•
Infrastructure will be needed to
manage content (digital rights
management, revenue collection,
and persistent state).
•
Carriers need transaction
settlement capability both in billing
and through clearing via financials.
•
Events and transactions will be
conducted on a finer grain of time
and space.
•
New opportunities will arise for
monitoring and response services
with high reliability.
•
New services will perform this
integration and offer it to enterprise
applications.
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Retail Hypernet Opportunities
ZagMe: driving store traffic
Real-time manipulation of the decision-making process
Non-intrusive location-based services
Customer
registers (web,
kiosk, mobile,
etc.)
Customer SMS’
ZagMe from the
mall indicating
interest and
availability
Receives
location
sensitive SMS
“personalized
offers”
Shows screen to
merchant to
receive discount
Forwards
offers to
peers
Profile is created
in database- age,
sex, preferred
retailers, etc.
Need to close
the data loop
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Ignores
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
The Hypernet opens new intermediary roles between content &
distribution
Revenue, specs, data
Revenue
Carrier
Customer
Airtime, data services
Commerce services,
Metering, content
Int
er
me
dia
ry
Game
Developer
SDK, data analysis, revenue
Content
Game
Developer
Game
Developer
Game
Developer
Metering, billing and analysis
Middleware for legacy billing systems
Ease of cross-platform deployment
Maintenance of a persistent state
Producer/financier
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©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
On the road again . . .
What do mobile professionals want to be able to do?
Manage the logistics of mobility
Talk to the server: create and communicate data
Manage personal affairs
Manage presence and availability
Manage awareness and coordination
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©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation
Telecommunications: Trends
Voice is a commodity
Guerilla infrastructures are going
mainstream
– Major players - MobileStar
(Voicestream), Telia (HomeRun) and
Microsoft
– Public WLAN to hit $225 million by
2005 (23.6 million units shipped)
– Top down & bottom-up networks are
converging
PAM, LBS, Multimedia
MeshNetworks
Innovation at every layer
– Devices, networks, contents,
operators
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Telecom Trend: Machine communication
ARPU Down
Voice revenue down, data up
Number of microprocessors increasing
Geeks
Average Person
Machines
$US 4.3 billion
The amount NTT DoCoMo
would make monthly if Napster
data was transmitted through
i-Mode’s 3G network
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Low
Involvement by 3rd parties
Hi
Evolution to open telecom
You are here
•Web services
•Applications on
handsets (Java)
•Open content/data
(e.g. i-Mode)
•Voice & data
(walled garden)
•Voice only
Closed
Network operator
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Open
©2000 Digital 4Sight Corporation