Transcript Keynote - TMCnet

Trends in VoIP
Development
August 4, 2005
Michael Stanford
Intel Corporation
Digital Enterprise Group
Summary
• VoIP is flourishing, driven by multiple forces:
–
–
–
–
IMS
Smarter clients
Fixed/Mobile convergence (IMS + dual mode phones)
Broadband deployment and evolution
• VoIP is old news. Long live “Services over IP.”
– SoIP is more than a “Low cost PSTN replacement”
– Wideband audio, video, IM, PTT, presence, collaboration
• Open networks, open source and standard
environments accelerate innovation
• Regulation continues to be a wild-card
Digital Enterprise Group
The VoIP Revolution Marches On
• Carriers have moved to VoIP, driven by data bandwidth demands, as well
as CapEx and OpEx pressures
• Enterprise phone sales crossed over in 2005
• Cellular industry is committed to SIP for 3G on IMS – the wireline
industry is following
• Skype* phenomenon continues – Skype Out*, Skype In*, Skype Video,
Skype API extensions, 140M downloads…
2005 in review
Jan
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Japanese government
urges end of PSTN by 2007
Microsoft launches
Communicator 2005
BEA launches WebLogic
Communications Platform
FCC issues E911 warning
requirement for VoIP
BT launches Fusion
FCC rules “entirely Internet-based VoIP”
an “unregulated information service.”
Digital Enterprise Group
Subscribers in millions
Voice
Service
is
Cellular
Service
Europe
US
World
Cellular
Wireline
140
Source: European Information Technology Observatory
WW Unit Shipments (M)
Source: ABI Research 2Q 2005
120
High
estimate
100
80
60
40
Dual Mode Cell
Phone Shipments:
~100 M in 2010
Low
estimate
20
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cell Phones
Connect to
Fixed Network
Industry consolidation drives FMC
Digital Enterprise Group
Data Phones Overtake Voice Phones….
100%
High-End/
Enterprise
80%
High-Tier
60%
40%
Mid-Range
20%
Low-End
0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: IDC, February 2005
Digital Enterprise Group
300M BB subscribers WW by 2008
Bandwidth
250
200
150
100
50
-
2002
Source: EITO 2005 special study
Cable
2003
2004
DSL
2005
2006
2007
2008
DELL’ORO Group, Access Forecast Tables, January 2004
300
iTown Communications
announced in July 2005 that
they plan to deploy ultrabroadband – 100 Mbits/sec
to rural areas.
BWA
Source: Ovum-RHK
Broadband + QoS catalyze new usages
Digital Enterprise Group
WiMax accelerates broadband availability
’08-’10
’07-’08
’06-’07
Global
Network
Rollout
’05
Notebook
Integration
and Early Mobile
Trials
Phones
and Early
Mobile
Network
Rollout
Fixed Trials Begin
WiMax evolves to broadband mobility
Digital Enterprise Group
VoIP is the Beachhead to
“Services over IP (SoIP)”
• The technologies underlying VoIP (RTP, SIP,
QoS, IMS) support more than just voice:
–
–
High quality (wide-band) audio
Video
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Video mail/messaging, video portals, video caller ID,
video CRBT, video in contact centers, push-to-video,
distance learning, video conferencing, IPTV…
Instant Messaging
Push to Talk
Presence
Document sharing
Rich collaboration
Rapid innovation of new features and new service
combinations
“The broadband
revolution is not just
about cheap voice: it is
about service
innovation. The
revolution is
about…new and
compelling ways to use
a network.”
Ovum-RHK, January 2005
VoIP is the baseline feature that opens the door
to new revenue-producing services
Digital Enterprise Group
Evolution of Network and Service Models
Closed
Open
Servers
Servers
Servers
Clients
Clients
Old Ma Bell
Some MNOs
Enterprise TEMs
Current ILECs
MSOs
Clients
Internet
Vonage/Skype
MVNOs
IP enables open networks
Digital Enterprise Group
Open Networks accelerate innovation
J2EE* or .NET App Server Environment
Opportunity:
New Services
Voice
Services
VCC
Services
(IMS)
(IMS)
Email
WWW
Entertainment
Services
IP Connectivity Access Network (IP-CAN)
PSTN
Opportunity:
New Applications
DSL
Cable
WiMax
GSM
GPRS
3G
Multi-modal
Clients
IMS allows billed services on open networks
Digital Enterprise Group
Clouds on the Horizon
“Parasitic”
Services
Servers
Managed
Managed
Network
Network
Internet
Telmex alleged to block VoIP
Vonage says that Telmex may identify
VoIP users based on the kind of traffic
they send, then choke their bandwidth
to disrupt the calls.
Verizon cripples Bluetooth
Clients
Verizon disabled some of the Bluetooth profiles on the
Motorola V710 handset, triggering a class action
lawsuit filed December 30, 2004 by Kirtland & Packard
LLP.
Madison River unblocks VoIP
On March 3, 2005, the FCC approved a
consent decree under which Madison River
Telephone Company of Mebane, N.C., paid a
$15,000 fine, and agreed to refrain from
preventing customers from using VoIP by port
blocking or any other means.
Vodafone blocks VoIP:
On July 13, 2005, Vodafone’s German operation
announced that they intend to block third party VoIP
traffic on their network starting in July 2007.
Network owners are motivated to block third party services
Digital Enterprise Group
IMS and Dual-Mode Handsets Drive
Fixed/Mobile Convergence (FMC)
IMS
IP-CAN
PSTN/
SS7
BB/WiMAX
MSG
Wi-Fi
Cellular
• IP multimedia subsystem (IMS) can be
accessed by any IP connectivity access
network
• The same IMS service infrastructure can
run over the PSTN, BB fixed VoIP, and
cellular access networks
• The multi-service gateway (MSG)
includes an analog terminal adapter
(ATA), so you can plug in a conventional
phone
• The dual-mode cell phone uses
Wi-Fi either as a cordless phone with
fixed VoIP service or for network offload
for cellular service
Opportunity: FMC Enables numerous new services
Digital Enterprise Group
Voice is Just Another Service on
IP Networks
So use the same powerful development and
deployment environments already familiar to
countless web developers:
• J2EE
– BEA WebLogic*
Communications
Platform runs on IMS
• .NET
– Microsoft* Live
Communications
Server
Standardization speeds service creation and deployment
Digital Enterprise Group
Where to Next?
• VoIP is old news – SoIP is where it’s at!
• VoIP is just another application for IP –
implement it with Web architectures
• Opportunities abound for developers:
–
–
–
–
–
Fixed/mobile convergence
Video
Rich collaboration
Location-based services
Usability enhancements
www.intel.com/go/VoIP, www.intel.com/go/ims
Digital Enterprise Group
Thank You!
Copyright © Intel Corporation 2005.
Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel or its subsidiaries in the United States and
other countries.
*Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.
All rights reserved.
00-9772-001 07/05
Digital Enterprise Group