Transcript International Telecommunication Union

Partners in Transition
22nd Annual Telecommunications
Conference and Trade Exhibition,
CANTO
Punta Cana, Dominican Republic
19 June 2006
Roberto Blois
Deputy Secretary-General, ITU
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Agenda
1. Partnership in World Summit on
the Information Society (WSIS)
2. Drivers of the telecom industry
3. Partners in Transition towards IPenabled NGN
4. Conclusions
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1.1 World Summit on the
Information Society (WSIS)
Geneva Phase: December 2003
11,000 participants 41 Heads of State
1.Geneva Declaration of Principles
2.Geneva Plan of Action
Tunis Phase: November 2005
25,000 participants 47 Heads of State
3.Tunis Commitment
4.Tunis Agenda for the Information
Society
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1.2 Main WSIS Outcomes
• Emphasized multi-stakeholder
partnerships for progress;
• Est. Internet Governance Forum;
• United Nations Group for the IS;
• Creation of Digital Solidarity Fund;
• Framework for implementation
assigning clear responsibilities;
• And more…
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1.3 Internet Governance Forum
(IGF)
• First meeting in Athens, Greece: 30 Oct – 2
November 2006
• Annual meeting: not a decision-making
forum
• (2007: Brazil, 2008: India)
• Information-sharing event with
development focus
• See www.intgovforum.org
• IGF Advisory Group (AG) and representatives
of IGO’s (e.g., ITU, OECD, UNESCO, World
Bank) developing meeting agenda
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1.4 Athens IGF Agenda Themes
• Openness:
• Free flow of information, idea and access t
o knowledge.
• Security:
• Building trust in an online environment;
• Protecting users from spam, phishing, and
viruses;
• Maintain security while protecting privacy.
• Diversity:
• Promoting multilingualism including IDNs
and promoting local content;
• Respecting geographical diversity.
• Access:
• Internet connectivity: Cost and Policy
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2. Drivers in the telecom industry
90
Worldwide Competition in Basic Services,
2006
82
Monopoly
Competition
Cost & Revenues
Growth in Customers
Technological Innovation – the
transition to IP-enabled NGN
70
60
50
Competition
61
59
49 51
50 50
41
39
40
30
18
20
10
0
Africa
Caribbean Asia-Pacific
Europe
Entry-level broadband
package -21% p.a.
World
140
$120.21
Cost of 20 hours'
Internet -11% p.a
100
80
60
$34.64
40
2003
2005
120
Price (USD)
1.
2.
3.
4.
80
Broadband (US$
$68.86 per 100 kbps)
-14% p.a.
$31.26
$27.01
$22.38
20
Growth in telephony 2.14 billion
2'500
mobile
0
Internet access
Broadband entry
package
Broadband (USD per
100 kbps)
2'000
Fixed lines
Cellular subscribers
1.28 billion fixed (e)
1'500
1'000
500
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Multimedia Services
…
Internet
Television
Telephony
Television
Internet
Telephony
Control layer
IP-based network
Evolution from multiple separate networks
(each optimized for one service) to a
unified IP-based multi-service network
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2.1 Drivers - Competition
90
80
70
60
50
Worldwide Competition in Basic Services,
2006
82
Monopoly
Competition
61
49 51
50 50
39
40
61
59
41
39
30
18
20
10
0
Africa
Caribbean Americas
AsiaPacific
Europe
World
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 2006.
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2.2 Competition in the
Caribbean, 2006
World Averages, 2006
Caribbean Operators where data are
available, 2006
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Competition
100
90
90
Monopoly
80
70
60
50
70
50
50
30
10
Fixed telephony
Cellular
40
30
20
Competition
Monopoly
93
87
61
39
13
10
0
Internet
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Fixed telephony
Cellular
7
Internet
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2.3 Drivers – Cost Worldwide
70
60
Cost (USD)
50
40
30
20
Average cost of ICT
worldwide, 2003-2005
2003
2005
broadband
($/100 kbps)
-40% $60.74
20 hours'
Internet
access
$37.44
mobile
basket
$34.28
$28.20
$16.81
$12.94
10
0
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2.4 Drivers – Cost of Mobile in
the Caribbean, 2005
Cost of OECD mobile low-user basket, 2005
18
$16.41
16
$14.75
$13.31
Cost (USD)
14
$11.82
12
10
$8.78
8
6
4
2
0
Asia
Caribbean
Africa
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Americas
Europe
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2.5 Drivers - Cost of Broadband
in the Caribbean, 2006
Broadband, Price per 100 kbps (USD), 2006
$199
100
90
80
$68.55
Price (USD)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
$12.10
$13.36
Americas
Caribbean
$5.24
0
Europe
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Asia
Africa
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2.6 Drivers – Internet access in
the Caribbean, 2003-2005
Entry-level broadband
package -21% p.a.
140
$120.21
2005
Price (USD)
120
100
80
Cost of 20 hours'
Internet -11% p.a
Broadband (US$
$68.86 per 100 kbps)
-14% p.a.
60
40
$34.64
2003
$31.26
$27.01
$22.38
20
0
Internet access
Broadband entry
package
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Broadband (USD per
100 kbps)
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2.7 Drivers - Growth in Customers
Growth in telephony 2.14 billion
2'500
2'000
mobile
Fixed lines
Cellular subscribers
1.28 billion fixed (e)
1'500
1'000
500
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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2.8 Drivers – Technological
Innovation
Multimedia Services
…
Television
Internet
Telephony
Television
Internet
Telephony
Control layer
IP-based network
Evolution from multiple separate networks
(each optimized for one service) to a
unified IP-based multi-service network
Source: ITU workshop on “What Rules for IP-enabled NGN?”, adapted from Christian Wey.
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Transition towards NGN:
Definition
• A Next Generation Network (NGN) is a packetbased network able to provide services and
make use of multiple broadband, QoS-enabled
transport technologies and in which servicerelated functions are independent from
underlying transport-related technologies. It
offers unrestricted access by users to different
service providers. It supports generalized
mobility which will allow consistent and
ubiquitous provision of services to users.
ITU Study Group 13, 2004.
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Transition to NGN
• On NGN technical standards, ITU fully engaged
• But convergence and transition to NGN implies new
challenges for policy-makers and regulators
• Capital markets looking for regulatory certainty!
• ITU workshop in March 2006 initiated international
dialogue:
 “thought-leading” background papers
 sharing of national experiences and
approaches
 assistance in capacity-building with
developing economies in transitioning to this
new paradigm
See www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn/
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Main findings
Old World
(PSTN telecom)
New World
(IP-based Internet)
Circuit-switched
Packet-based, based on IP
Interconnection
P2P peering arrangements
Capacity-based
Quality of Service class (best effort)
Cost orientation on marginal cost
Bundled offers; marginal costs near zero
Calling Party’s Network Pays
Unclear - Bill and Keep?
Price caps
Price squeezes
Key issues – asymmetric regulation
(numbers, universal & emergency
service)
Unlicensed bands, spectrum trading
Network-centric control & intelligence
Edge-centric intelligent nodes at edge
Source: ITU, adapted from discussions during the ITU workshop, “What Rules for IP-enabled
NGN?”
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Arguments for regulatory
forbearance
• Incentives for massive investments
required, so “national regulatory
moratoria” are required;
• too early to know whether
interconnection will be open
access or wholesale mandated.
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Arguments for re-monopolisation?
• Carriers may rapidly vertically integrate
services and bottlenecks in access and
control may emerge;
• regulate non-replicable assets only.
BUT
• Shake-up may be so profound,
incumbents lose Significant Market
Power and be forced into strategic
alliances with content providers
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Conclusions
• NGN radically transform business models
– threat, as well as an opportunity
• Risk of re-monopolization, necessitating
regulation of bottlenecks
• Alternatively, incumbents may lose
Significant Management Power, as they
are forced to cooperate with other players
• Can only deal with this radical industry
shake-up together, as partners in
transition
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Roberto Blois
Deputy Secretary-General
ITU
Email: [email protected]
International
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