Transcript Grouper Strategic Rationale

Grouper Acquisition Opportunity
June 2006
CONFIDENTIAL
Agenda
•
Digital Distribution
– Trends and Opportunities
– Emerging Threats
•
Competitor Response
•
Grouper Acquisition Rationale
•
Grouper Valuation
•
Next Steps
page 2
Rough Storyline (Summary for M. Paull, Will Not Include)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Digital distribution is taking off
– Broadband has reached critical mass
– Change has historically driven growth in filmed entertainment
Opportunity if we capitalize on this / threat if we don’t
– Opportunity
• Build direct customer relationships (Internet Bypass)
• Diversify types of content SPE offers
• Expand distribution to new audiences
– Threat
• Consumption shifts to non-studio content
• Revenues shifting to ad-based models
• We have almost all transactional / non-advertising revenue base
Competitors see the opportunity and are capitalizing on it
– Acquiring and partnering across business types (promotional, channels, stores, social networks)
– Ad-based models are gaining the most traction
If SPE is going to enter we must partner or acquire
– Traditionally we have huge gaps in technology
– Speed-to-market issues
If we’re going to buy, we must buy now
– Valuations going through the roof
– Attractive players being pulled off the table
Grouper is the right company to buy
– Leading technology
– Leading management team
– “Right Scale” – small enough to be affordable, large enough to prove viability
page 3
Executive Summary
•
Sony Pictures must develop a solution for the digital distribution of our content
– Digital delivery of video is reaching critical mass
– SPE must address the risks associated with a changing distribution landscape and shift to
advertising-supported models
– Owning a service for digital delivery enables SPE to:
• Diversify revenue streams and position the studio to benefit from growth in ad-supported
models
• Establish direct relationship with new audiences
• Distribute a greater breadth of content, including short-form and user generated
•
Market dynamics require us to act quickly
– Market for online video destinations and technology providers is consolidating
– Valuations for potential acquisition candidates are increasing
•
Acquiring Grouper provides a compelling solution for digital distribution
– Accelerate speed to market and builds scale quickly
– Address historical challenges in technology development
– Secure market-leading management team
– Provide platform for future growth
page 4
Digital Distribution
Trends and Opportunities
CONFIDENTIAL
Broadband Access and Content Availability Are Driving Growth in
Digital Video
Broadband-enabled U.S. Households (MM)
Cable
Video Downloads (BN)
DSL
18.0
69.6
65.1
58.9
51.0
28.5
30.8
25.4
42.6
21.6
33.2
17.6
13.1
25.0
20.1
29.4
33.5
36.6
38.8
0.28
2004
30%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
38%
46%
52%
57%
61%
1998
2005
Source: SG Cowen Research dated June 7, 2005, Morgan Stanley Broadband Update, April 2005
page 6
Downloadable Video Should Drive Growth in Filmed Entertainment
• Models with unique consumer benefits have been consistently adopted by Hollywood
• Adoption has often been led by outside entrants and new industry players
• Double digit annual growth has doubled the market approximately every 7 years
$47Bn
$37Bn
$30
Evolution of Content Distribution &
Revenue Growth of Filmed Entertainment Industry in the US*
Revenue ($ Billions)
$25
$20
Box
Office
52%
$15
TV
41%
$10
$5
100%=$18Bn
Box
Office
27%
Video
/DVD
7%
TV
32%
$9Bn
1995
100%=$4Bn
1980
$2Bn
Video
/DVD
41%
$0
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
2004
2008e
Pay TV/ Subscription
VHS/ Rental
DVD/ Sell thru
IP Delivery
New consumer
benefits
Movies without
advertising
Consumer controlled
viewing
Ownership, high quality,
additional features
Complete library,
convenience & control
Introduction
drivers
New cable network
entrants
Consumer electronics
manufacturers
Warner Home Video
& CE industry
Technology Companies
* Includes revenue generated by films from major studios across content distribution windows – box office, video (rental, sell thru), television (ppv, pay, network, made for TV), and foreign revenues for each
Source: Entertainment Industry Economics Vogel 4th ed., PricewaterhouseCoopers Global Entertainment & Media Outlook 2004-2008.
page 7
Evolving Infrastructure Represents an Opportunity to Build Direct
Relationship with End-users and Increase Control of Distribution
Broadcast Model
Production
Aggregation
Distribution
Customer
SPE
Broadcast
Network
Local Affiliate
Broadcast TV
Cable
Network
Cable MSO
Cable TV
Cable Model
SPE
Digital Distribution – Licensing/Syndication
SPE
Portal
Broadband ISP
PC or TV
SPE-owned
Service
Broadband ISP
PC or TV
Customer-facing Service
SPE
page 8
Digital Video Delivery Represents an Opportunity to Reach a Younger
Demographic
Percent of Each Age Group Downloading Video
27%
22%
14%
8%
Gen Y
(18-28)
Gen X
Trailing Boomers Leading Boomers
(29-40)
(41-50)
(51-59)
8%
Matures
(60-69)
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, December 2005
page 9
SPE Can Best Reach Younger Demographics with Models that Include
Two-way Interactivity and Social Networking
Percent of Each Age Group Participating in Online Activity
Instant Message
66%
Read a Blog
52%
42%
41%
38%
33%
30%
20%
Gen Y
(18-28)
Gen X
21%
Trailing Boomers Leading Boomers
(29-40)
(41-50)
(51-59)
19%
Matures
(60-69)
Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, December 2005
page 10
Digital Distribution
Emerging Threats
CONFIDENTIAL
Emerging Digital Models Represent Threats to SPE on Multiple Fronts
Challenges Facing SPE
Changing
Consumer
Habits
• Consumers are shifting time away from studio-produced products and toward games,
online, and mobile entertainment
New
Distribution
Channels
• Digital distribution of all packaged media is
lowering barriers to entry for content
alternatives and changing inter-channel
competition
Shift to
Ad-supported
models
• Ad dollars are shifting toward online,
following growth in consumer interest
• SPE has limited exposure to adsupported models, primarily generating
revenues on a transactional basis
page 12
Consumers are Shifting Time Away from Traditional Media Toward Online
and Interactive Media
•
•
•
Cable and satellite TV hours rise slightly due to increase in channels, VOD and PPV services
Consumer time spent on broadcast TV may flatten with emerging technologies (a la TiVo)
But the real growth is in Interactive/wireless, home video, internet and games
Consumer Time Shifts in Media
Hours Per Person Per Year
Cable & Satellite TV
Broadcast TV
%
Change
1990
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
(1)
(8.3%)
15
19
26
32
42
27
180.0%
Box Office
Interactive TV/Wireless Content
Change
in Hours
2009 ('05-'09)
-
-
1,470
674
793
869
679
871
684
877
678
891
675
881
681
12
2
1.4%
0.3%
1
38
12
104
43
64
183
76
78
190
84
82
195
91
86
200
95
93
203
99
96
20
23
18
10.9%
30.3%
23.1%
Radio
Recorded Music
Daily Newspapers
Consumer Magazine
Consumer Books
1,135
235
175
90
95
942
258
201
135
107
978
179
183
124
106
975
175
179
122
106
974
175
175
122
106
984
169
170
122
106
984
165
165
121
106
6
(14)
(18)
(3)
0
0.6%
(7.8%)
(9.8%)
(2.4%)
0.0%
TOTAL MEDIA CONSUMPTION
3,263
3,333
3,482
3,499
3,517
3,548
3,554
Consumer Internet
Home Video
Video Games
72
2.1%
Note: Consumer Internet includes both dial-up and broadband
Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, Val Morgan, Harris Interactive, L.E.K. Analysis, Jupiter analyst interview,
Corporate Development Analysis
page 13
New Distribution Models are Shifting Consumer Consumption toward
“Long-Tail” Titles
page 14
Studio Content May not Be as Dominant in Emerging Channels
Product Mix of Units
Methodology
Books
15%
85%
70%

Niche (All Others)
Major (RH, TW, Simon, HC,
Pearson)
Bookstore
Surveyed 6 B&N and Borders stores
Calculated number of SKU’s for a sample of fiction titles
 Reviewed 8 to 12 stacks
 Counted the number of separate SKU’s
 Determined which titles were major (including sub-labels)
 Amazon figures are units sold in 2005 (source Wired 2.0 and Bain
consumer study)
 Publishing analysts from First Research conclude that there is a strong
correlation between SKU’s and units sold

30%
Amazon
Music
2%
98%
Music Stores
Surveyed 5 Borders and Best Buy stores
Calculated number of SKU’s for a sample of new release and catalog
titles
 Reviewed 6 to10 stacks
 Counted the number of separate SKU’s
 Determined which titles were major (including sub-labels)
 Digital figures are units sold in 2005 (source Wired 2.0 and Bain
consumer study)
 Units sold figures for music via traditional stores is being researched
through Nielsen Musicscan data


22%
78%
Niche (All Others)
Digital
Major (Uni, War,
Sony/BMG, EMI)
Home Video
5%
20%
Niche (All Others)
95%
Major (7 Majors)
80%
"Mart" Retailers
Surveyed 7 WalMart, Best Buy and Target stores
Calculated number of SKU’s for a sample of new release/catalog titles
 Reviewed 12 to15 racks
 Counted the number of separate SKU’s
 Backed-up SKU findings with units sold data from Nielsen
VideoScan
 Digital figures are units sold in 2005 via Amazon & other online retailers


Online Retailers
Sources: Nielsen Videoscan data, Wired 2.0, Industry Interviews, select store visits across Los Angeles area
page 15
Ad Market is Changing Significantly as Ad Dollars Following
Consumers and Two-way Infrastructure Becomes Available
Media spending does not yet
reflect consumption
Advertising dollars are shifting online to
address the current gap
1999
2003-’05 US
Advertising
1999
Other
14%
Magazines
4%
Newspaper
6%
Games
2%
Network TV
24%
Internet
2%
Cable TV
19%
Radio
29%
Today
2005
Other
Magazines
11%
4%
Newspaper
5%
Network TV
20%
Games
2%
Contribution to Growth
CAGR
Television:
TV Stations
1.5%
2%
Cable Networks
15.6%
19%
Cable MSOs
8.1%
3%
CBS Net, FOX Net
5.8%
9%
Total Television
7.0%
34%
Magazines
8.9%
5%
Newspapers
3.4%
11%
Radio
0.2%
0%
Outdoor
7.1%
5%
Online
50.4%
45%
Total
8.4%
100%
Traditional Media
5.1%
55%
Online
50.4%
45%
Total
8.4%
100%
SUMMARY
Internet
6%
Cable TV
25%
Radio
27%
page 16
SPE Currently Has Limited Ability to Capitalize on the General Growth
in Ad Revenues, Particularly in the Online Space
Overall ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 10.1%
Broadcast ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR:
4.9%
Cable/Sat ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 11.4%
Online ’05 – ’09 Projected CAGR: 22.3%
$140
TV & Online Advertising Spend
US $ (Billions)
Broadcast Netw orks
Cable Netw orks
Online
114.9
$120
106.0
95.1
$100
87.6
78.3
$80
71.7
57.9
$60
$40
$20
60.7
63.2
6.0
7.3
14.7
16.3
36.6
40.0
2001
12%
7.1
14.2
28.2
24.1
20.0
16.1
12.6
9.6
29.7
24.3
26.9
33.4
18.9
21.7
44.0
47.2
48.2
53.3
43.2
52.2
39.6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10%
12%
13%
16%
18%
21%
23%
25%
$0
Online %:
Source: Veronis Suhler, 2005
Note: Cable/satellite growth expected to be driven by increasing audience share of prime time ratings, ability to target within specific demographic groups, improved sales
system; broadcast growth expected to be driven by sustained ratings and ad rates, continued appeal as optimal means to reach large audiences
page 17
Competitor Response
CONFIDENTIAL
Competitors Have Seen the Potential for Digital Video Distribution and
are Introducing Offerings Across Business Models
Promotional
Channel
• Predominantly short
video clips that
promote the site
owner’s content,
merchandise, and
brand
• Includes on-demand
videos available in
programmed microchannels, on a showby-show basis, or in
a traditional channel
lineup
• May include some
advertising, and
minimal commerce
capabilities, but is
promotional in nature
• Business model
primarily includes
advertising, with
some upsell to
subscription
Store
• Aggregates video
across content
providers for
purchase
• Uses a range of
models including
sell-thru, rental, and
subscription
Social
Network
• Generally consists of
short video clips from
users of the service
• May also provide
tools for creating
video clips or
interacting with video
content
• Primarily ad-based
business models
page 19
Networks Are Investing Heavily in Online Distribution, Including Over
$1BN of Acquisitions by Newscorp Alone
Parent
Studio
Network
Online Destinations
• ABC.com: ad-supported full episode streaming
• ESPN.com: ad-supported streaming and subscriptions
• Disneychannelcom: Launching new broadband player
today with a dozen free episodes
• CBS.com: ad-supported and limited download-to-own
• Innertube: ad-supported broadband channel
• MTV Overdrive: ad-supported video channel
• Acquired iFilm for $49 MM
• Invested over $1BN to acquire online properties (IGN,
Scout, and Intermix / MySpace)
• Now selling episodes of “24” on MySpace
• Fox.com: primarily clips and previews
• Launching “NBC 360 Digital” with classic comedy and new
previews available online
• Acquired iVillage for $592MM
• Promoting content on YouTube
• Launched AOL In2TV, ad-supported classic TV episodes
• Acquired Lightningcast to improve video advertising
technology
• Licensed content through BitTorrent (P2P site) and Guba
(social network)
page 20
Social Networks have Seen the Most Traction Among these Business
Models
Larger Audiences
Smaller Audiences
Monthly Unique
Users (mm)
Monthly Unique
Users (mm)
Promotional
Channel
Store
Social Network
CBS.com
FOX.com
NBC.com
Sonypictures.com
5.35
ABC.com
Atomfilms
ESPN.com
iFilm
In2TV
MTV Overdrive
MLB.com
8.03
Google
iTunes
Facebook
Friendster
Grouper
Metacafe
MySpace
YouTube
Channel
8.51
7.95
4.66
Store
3.19
13.88
Blinkx
Innertube
Multi-media Networks
Singingfish
0.06
CinemaNow
Connect
MovieLink
0.24
Dave.TV
Fleapit
Gather
TagWorld
Varsity World
NA
NA
NA
NA
1.18
0.56
3.16
9.34
4.44
9.29
7.02
20.54
Social Network
NA
0.11
0.86
0.02
7.68
0.83
0.73
1.95
MAKING INTO BAR CHARTS
42.01
20.08
page 21
Acquisition Rationale
CONFIDENTIAL
Summary Acquisition Rationale and Key Target Characteristics
Acquisition Rationale
•
Expand SPE revenue streams and content base
– Address limited exposure to ad-supported models
– Expand offering to new forms of content (e.g. user generated)
•
Address gaps in SPE core competencies
– Service operation and design
– Tool / software development
– Consumer data usage
•
Accelerate market entry
– Vehicle for SPE content
•
Reduce overall cost of entry
– Leverage existing base of knowledge in the marketplace
– Acquire experienced management team
Key Target Characteristics
•
Characteristics for highest potential acquisition targets include
– Small companies with existing consumer offer up-and-running
– Offer specifics features to address user-generated content and interactive features
– Ownership or direct control of key technology capabilities
page 23
SPE Target and Competitive Landscape
AOL
High
Existing Service Penetration
Yahoo
Google
MySpace
iTunes
YouTube
MTV Overdrive
ABC.com
CBS.com
Fox.com
MLB.com
Facebook
Friendster
Metacafe
Grouper
Brightcove
CinemaNow
Connect
MovieLink
Veoh
Multimedia
Networks
Low
Quang editing
Dave.TV
Fleapit
Gather
Maven / The Platform
Extend Media
•Acquire capabilities to build
•Focus on complimentary
content (e.g. user
generated)
•Look for proprietary or
differentiated technology
High
Technology Capabilities
page 24
Grouper Acquisition Rationale
•
Grouper balances strong management and leading technology with reasonable scale
•
Management team has experience building market leading services
– Developed Spinner and sold to AOL
•
Scale and growth demonstrate credibility without commanding a prohibitive valuation
– #2 and fastest growing video community
– 4MM unique users visit the site directly each month
– 7MM total unique users visit site content (directly and via partner links)
•
Technology is ahead of larger user generated video sites (e.g., YouTube)
– Provides multi-platform download support (iPod, PSP, Mobile Phone)
– Portability enabled by proprietary P2P technology
– Proprietary desktop software
•
Represents significant revenue and growth potential as a standalone business
•
Can be leveraged across SPE digital distribution initiatives
page 25
Potential for Advertising Revenue
•
•
•
11MM streams on ABC could equal $x per year
MySpace expected to be generating over $100MM per year
WSJ and other articles re: can barely meet demand for ad-inventory online
Quang building
page 26
Grouper as a Platform for Growth
Quang building
page 27
Valuation
To come: 1 page on comps, 1 page on “waterfall”
Will show value based “pre-revenue tech comps,”
“successful players (MySpace, Yahoo, Google) if we count
(a) direct unique users only or (b) direct and embedded
CONFIDENTIAL
Next Steps
To Come
CONFIDENTIAL
Appendix
CONFIDENTIAL
Addressable Boxes and 2-way Infrastructure Could Change
the Ad Market Significantly
How will the $55 billion in untargeted spend respond to the
interactive capabilities being rolled out by cable MSO’s?
page 31
Examples of Online Video Destinations by Category
Promotional
Larger
Audience
Smaller
Audience
•
•
•
•
CBS.com
Fox.com
NBC.com
Sonypictures.com
Channel
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
ABC.com
Atomfilms
CBS.com / innertube
ESPN.com
iFilm
In2TV
MLB.com
MTV Overdrive
Yahoo
• Blinkx
• Innertube
• Multi-media
Networks
• Singingfish
Social
Network
Store
• Google
• iTunes
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Facebook
Friendster
Google
Grouper
Metacafe
MySpace
YouTube
Yahoo
• CinemaNow
• Connect
• MovieLink
•
•
•
•
•
Dave.TV
Fleapit
Gather
Tag World
Varsity World
page 32
Categories for Online Video Technology Providers
Content
Management
Interactivity and
Social Networking
• Content preparation
– Ingestion
– Metadata / tagging
– Ad insertion
• Tools and infrastructure for:
– Chat
– Instant Messaging
– Blogs
– Ratings
– Recommendations
– Clickable Video
• Content delivery
– From content owners to
aggregators
– Onto P2P networks
Consumer
Tools
• Video creation
• Video editing
• Media mixing software
(integrate video, photo,
audio)
• Video publishing
(cross-platform)
• Personal channel creation
• DVD burning
• Content classification and
discovery
page 33
Examples of Technology Providers by Category
Content
Management
More
Established
Newer
Entrant
•
•
•
•
•
•
Grouper
BrightCove
Maven / The Platform
Veoh Networks
MLB Adanced Media
Roo Media
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Extend Media
Intent Mediaworks
Kontiki
Redswoosh
Solid State Networks
SyncCast
Tandberg TV
Zetools
Interactivity and
Social Networking
Consumer
Tools
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Avant Interactive
Intent Mediaworks
Imeem
Kozuru
vMix
Grouper
Sonic
Sony Media Software
Veoh Networks
• Dave.TV (Social Broadcast
Network / MyChannels)
• Fleapit
• Intercasting / Rabble.com
• Oddcast
• Participatory Culture
• Video Publishing on
Demand (vpod.tv)
• vMix
page 34
Key Attributes of Digital Video Services
1
2
3
4
Low
Medium
High
Connected
Portable
Anytime, Anywhere
Content Accessibility
Content Value
Promotional
User-Generated
Produced
Company Owned
Aggregated
Single Genre
Multi Genre
Range of Content Providers
Content Breadth
5
Degree of Interactivity
6
Business Model
(Cost to Consumer)
On-Demand
Free
Ancillary
(e.g., blogs and ratings)
Ad-Based
Real-Time
(e.g., chat, story navigation)
Pay
page 35
Promotional Video Websites
Overview
Attributes
Low
•
•
Predominantly consist of
short video clips to promote
site owner’s content,
merchandise, and brand
1
May include some
advertising, and minimal
commerce capabilities, but
is promotional in nature
2
Connected
Medium
Portable
High
Anytime, Anywhere
Content Accessibility
Promotional
User-Generated
Produced
Content Value
3
Range of Content
Providers
4
Company Owned
Aggregated
Single Genre
Multi Genre
Content Breadth
On-Demand
5
Degree of Interactivity
6
Business Model
(Cost to Consumer)
Free
Ancillary
(e.g., blogs and ratings)
Ad-Based
Real-Time
(e.g., chat, story
navigation)
Pay
page 36
Broadband Video Channels
Overview
Attributes
Low
•
Includes on-demand videos
available in programmed
micro-channels, on a showby-show basis, or in a
traditional channel lineup
Connected
1
Portable
High
Anytime, Anywhere
Content Accessibility
Promotional
2
•
Medium
User-Generated
Produced
Content Value
Business model primarily
includes advertising, with
upsell to subscription
3
Range of Content
Providers
4
Company Owned
Aggregated
Single Genre
Multi Genre
Content Breadth
On-Demand
5
Degree of Interactivity
6
Business Model
(Cost to Consumer)
Free
Ancillary
(e.g., blogs and ratings)
Ad-Based
Real-Time
(e.g., chat, story
navigation)
Pay
page 37
Video Store (Content Aggregation)
Overview
Attributes
Low
•
•
Aggregates video across
content providers for
purhcase
1
Uses a range of models
including sell-thru, rental,
and subscription
2
Connected
Medium
Portable
High
Anytime, Anywhere
Content Accessibility
Promotional
User-Generated
Produced
Content Value
3
Range of Content
Providers
4
Company Owned
Aggregated
Single Genre
Multi Genre
Content Breadth
On-Demand
5
Degree of Interactivity
6
Business Model
(Cost to Consumer)
Free
Ancillary
(e.g., blogs and ratings)
Ad-Based
Real-Time
(e.g., chat, story
navigation)
Pay
page 38
Social Network (User-generated Video Sites)
Overview
Attributes
Low
•
Consists of short video clips
from users of the service
Connected
1
Medium
Portable
High
Anytime, Anywhere
Content Accessibility
•
•
May also provide tools for
creating video clips or
interacting with video
content
Primarily ad-based business
models
Promotional
2
User-Generated
Produced
Content Value
3
Range of Content
Providers
4
Company Owned
Aggregated
Single Genre
Multi Genre
Content Breadth
On-Demand
5
Degree of Interactivity
6
Business Model
(Cost to Consumer)
Free
Ancillary
(e.g., blogs and ratings)
Ad-Based
Real-Time
(e.g., chat, story
navigation)
Pay
page 39
Potential View of a New SPE Digital Video Service
1
2
3
4
5
6
Content Accessibility
Low
Medium
High
Connected
Portable
Anytime, Anywhere
Promotional
User-Generated
Produced
Content Value
Range of Content Providers
Content Breadth
Company Owned
Aggregated
Single Genre
Multi Genre
On-Demand
Degree of Interactivity
Business Model
(Cost to Consumer)
Ancillary
(e.g., blogs and ratings)
Free
Service At Launch
Ad-Based
Trend Over Time
Real-Time
(e.g., chat, story navigation)
Pay
page 40
Unique Users for Online Video Sites
Video sites with large audiences are affiliated with established network brands or
leading portals
Monthly Unique Users (mm)
125.18
112.46
104.45
15.37
4.75
iT
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es
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4.95
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N
Extend Portal Brands
Source: Nielsen NetRatings and comScore Media Metrix, May 2006
6.14
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7.20
2.09
FO
7.27
3.77
20.54
Extend Network Brands
.
page 41
Unique Users for Online Video Sites
While some independent video sites have succeeded, most have failed to build an
audience
Monthly Unique Users (mm)
42.01
20.08
Source: Nielsen NetRatings and comScore Media Metrix, May 2006
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page 42