Transcript Slides - TERENA> Events> tnc2006

Trends in network traffic
Mike Norris
17th May 2006
Agenda
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Dialectics
Projections of future behaviour
Network capacity
Growth factors and restraints
Actual measured traffic
Other metrics
Some conclusions
Syllogism
1. “When I hit Enter on my laptop, I want the
solution to this very complex calculation to
appear on my screen as a volumetric
rendering, within a fraction of a second.”
2. “There isn’t enough bandwidth”
3. “So, we must redouble our efforts, light more
dark fibre.”
Caveat
“Fanaticism consists of redoubling your effort
when you have forgotten your aim.”
George Santayana
Counter-caveat
“Almost every wise saying has an opposite one,
no less wise, to balance it.”
George Santayana
Some projections (Serenate 2003)
• Very demanding applications are coming
• Network requirements will grow dramatically
over the next 5 – 10 years
• GÉANT long-term trend-line is 80 times
increase in 5 years
• Tbps networking will be everywhere by the end
of the decade
Projection (Serenate 2003)
Expected increase in core capacity, 2000 and 2005
(Terena Compendium)
Increase
factor
NRENs
2
LT, LU
10
EE, FI, FR, HU, LV, NO,
SK, SE, TR
100
CZ, DE, ES
Increase
factor
NRENs
1
HU, LU
2
BE, CH, DE, IL, NL
3
CY
5
CZ, DK, GR, HR, LT,
NO, PT, SE, UK
10
BU, ES, IE, IS, SI, SK
GÉANT and predecessors
Pan-European network history
GÉANT (2001-)
TEN-155 (1998-2001)
TEN-34 (1997-1998)
EuropaNET 2 (1996-1997)
EuropaNET (1993-1996)
IXI (1990-1993)
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Bandwidth (Kbps)
100,000
1,000,000 10,000,000
Growth factors - intrinsic
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More client institutions
More users
More pervasive use
More intensive applications
Research users
Research infrastructures
New sectors (e.g. schools)
Growth factors - extrinsic
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More money
Economies of scale
Wavelength cheaper than SDH
Gigantism: 100G – “because it’s there”
Peer pressure
Networking research
Growth inhibitors
(Ed Seidel, TNC2005)
• You don’t provide enough (end-to-end)
bandwidth!
• You don’t provide enough QoS
• The last mile problem…
Limiting factors
(not boundary conditions)
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Core constituency is finite
Saturation of core constituency
Learning and thinking
Digital divide
Lower limit on telco cost-cutting
Time is finite
Occam’s razor (entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem)
HEAnet trends since 1991
1000000
10000
Traffic
Access b/w
1000
External b/w
Staff
Clients
100
10
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1
1991
Value relative to 1991
100000
Growth trends
TEN-155 and GÉANT
Annual grow th of total traffic
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Q4 1999 Q4 2000
Q4 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2003
Q4 2004 Q4 2005
C
O
N
E
A T
R N A
B E T
EL S
N C ET SI
E
S -B
N
E E
T
D -C
FN Z
FC D
C E
N
G -P
A
G RR T
R
N -I
E
H HE T T
U
N AN G
G E R
A T
R
N -I
ET E
IU HU
C
J
N AN C
O
R ET IL
D
U -U
N
E K
P TS S
R NC E
E
D
R IR - P
E I L
N S
A R TE ES
E
S R
T S EN FR
U A
R
FN - L
S E U
W T
IT C NL
H
-C
H
A
Traffic growth, by NREN
Mean annual growth of pan-European traffic
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Nov 1999 - Nov 2003
Nov 2003 - Nov 2005
Measured monthly traffic
3000
Traffic (TBytes)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Internet exchanges (1)
• INEX, Dublin
• VIX, Vienna
• MIX-IT, Milan
Internet exchanges (2)
• NIX, Prague
• AMS-IX, Amsterdam
• DE-CIX, Frankfurt
Internet exchanges (3)
• JPIX, Tokyo
• TORIX, Toronto
DNS queries to master IE nameserver
Domains in .de
Domains in .IT
RIPE host count
Number of DNS domains
10000000
1000000
100000
10000
1000
100
10
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
1
Europe
IE
Some conclusions
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What do users want?
Review projections – use feedback
Publish results, trends
Be clear and consistent
What users want (1) (Serenate)
• Networking which is cheap, reliable, technically upto-date and easy to use.
• Complexity should be hidden as much as possible
• Support for video-conferencing services
• Support for integrated IP communications
• Support services for end-to-end performance.
• Advanced applications which will enable new ways of
working.
What users want (2) (Serenate)
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Mobility, access from anywhere
Growing volumes of data
No charging at point-of-use, but….
…marginal cost charging for infrastructure for
advanced services
• Distance learning
• Guidance on likely future developments
A reality check
• Projection
Traffic (TBytes)
20000
15000
• Actual
10000
5000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
È un altro paio di maniche
Utilization trends
Network Capacity Limit
-0
4
Ju
n
-0
3
Ju
n
-0
2
Ju
n
-0
1
Ju
n
-0
0
Ju
n
-9
9
Lightpaths
IP Peak
IP Average
Ju
n
Ju
n
-9
8
Gbps
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 2005
Questions?
• Most discoveries are made locally, either at
home or a few streets away (J Roth)