Transcript mobile

World Regulatory Trends and
Challenges for Caspian and
Black See Region
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
Strategy and Policy Unit
International Telecommunication Union
Advancing in Telecommunications Regulation
- 1st Black Sea and Caspian Regulatory Conference –
25-27 May 2006, Istanbul, Turkey
Note: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of the ITU. Jaroslaw K. Ponder can be contacted at [email protected]
Agenda
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•
•
•
•
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Trends: The ICT sector
Trends: Regulatory environment
Necessary actions
ICTs: Caspian and Black See Region
Policy and Regulatory Challenges
Conclusions
25 May 2006
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2
Trends: ICT Sector
• Progressing regulatory reform:
 Pro-competitive policy / Universal
service/access…
• Expansion of mobile
industry and the Internet
• High innovation dynamics
• Falling prices of the ICTs:
 Hardware / Software / Services
• New requirements:




Bandwidth
Generalized mobility
Convergent solutions
Open character
25 May 2006
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3
Trends: Broadband Access
Number of countries with broadband
commercially available
160
Number of countries
133
113
120
Data
Both
180
145
140
100
Evolution in Pricing Strategy
166
81
80
60
40
20
160
Time
Flat-rate
133
140
166
143
120
100
68%
80
81%
75%
60
40
20
0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2004
2005
2006
T
Speed (kbps)
Median price and speed, 2004-6
1'800
16
1'600
14
1'400
12
1'200
10
1'000
8
800
6
600
400
200
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0
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2004
2005
Median speed
4
Median Price in
USD/100 kbps
2
2006
0
Price (USD per 100 kbps)
180
4
Trends: Broadband Access
Table 1: Broadbandprices
prices for for
the cheapest
fifteen economies.
Broadband
the cheapest
fifteen economies
Speed
Price per
US$ per
Change
Economy
Company
kbit/s
month US$ 100 kbit/s 2005-06
Japan
Yahoo BB
51'200
14.2
0.07
-12.5%
Korea (Rep.)
Hanaro
51'200
40.59
0.08
-Netherlands
Internet Access Ned.
20'480
27.97
0.14
-81.3%
Taiwan, China
Chunghwa
12'288
22.67
0.18
-Sweden
Bredbandsbolaget
24'576
56.08
0.23
-6.5%
Singapore
StarHub
30'720
73.17
0.24
-85.0%
Italy
Libero
12'288
37.23
0.30
-73.8%
Finland
Elisa
24'576
85.64
0.36
-51.4%
France
Free
10'240
37.29
0.36
-90.1%
United States
Comcast
4'096
20.00
0.49
-Germany
Freenet.de
6'016
30.95
0.52
-United Kingdom Pipex
8'128
50.89
0.63
-53.6%
Hong Kong, China Netvigator
6'144
51.17
0.83
-0.1%
Portugal
Sapo
8'128
75.82
0.93
-0.8%
Canada
Bell
4'096
41.26
1.01
-3.93%
Average
18'278
44.33
0.43
-45.5%
Best
40'960
27.59
0.10
-46.9%
25 practice
May 2006(top 20%)
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TeleCommunication Sector in
Transition
• Meaning and character of
communications
 Voice, Video, Data, SoD
• New sell and prices strategies coming
from IP-enabled flexibility on the
operational level
 NGS: N-play services
 Falling prices of communication services and
access
 Traditional services lose strategic meaning
 Personalization and customization
• Regulation
 Less regulation / blurred boundaries
 Migration from vertical to horizontal approach
2006
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25 May
Technological
neutrality
becomes meaningful6
Trends: ICT Sector
• Migration to the IP-environment
 Fixed telecommunications
Incumbents: British Telecom, DT AG, KPN
 Newcomers: Dialog, Metropolitan Networks
Multi-facility
competition

 Wireless communications
Mobile telecommunications: from 2G to 4G
 WiFi, WiMax

 Cable TV
 Broadcasting
 Service and content providers
Service
compet.
• Strengthened process of convergence
 Technology
 Market
 Services
25 May
Institutional
2006
Regulatory
Implications
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FMC?
7
NGNs as a global issue
Technical aspects
ITU-T SG 13: Rec. Y.2001
Europe
Africa
ITU
NGN
America
Asia
Challenges
 Multimedia
 Generalized mobility
 Convergence
 Integrity
 Multi-layer orientation
 Open character
25 May 2006
A NGN is a packet-based network able
to
provide
telecommunication
services and able to make use of
multiple
broadband,
QoS-enabled
transport technologies and in which
service-related
functions
are
independent
from
underlying
transport-related technologies.
It
enables unfettered access for users to
networks and to competing service
providers and/or services of their
choice.
It
supports
generalized
mobility which will allow consistent
and ubiquitous provision of services
to users.
FG NGN
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SG: 11, 13,
19, 2, 12, 16, 17
8
IP-enabled NGNs
A global issue
Regulatory considerations
• Three background papers
 Rulling new and emerging marekts
 Interconnection in an IP-enabled NGN
Environment
 Universal Service in an IP-enabled NGN
Environment
Europe
Africa
ITU
NGN
• Regulatory proceedings
 National, Regional, International level
Americas
Study
Group 1
Asia
• Tariff policies, tariff models and methods of determining the costs of
services on national telecommunication networks, including nextgeneration networks
• Regulatory impact of next generation networks on interconnection
http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn/
[email protected]
9
25 May 2006
NGNs as a national issue
Multi-stakeholder approach
• Broad framework on interconnections
and general regulatory framework
 United Kingdom: Interconnection and Developing
 India: Recommendations on Issues pertaining to Next
Generation Networks
 USA: Hearing on network neutrality
• Focused approach
 Germany: e.g. IP Interconnection
 Netherlands: e.g. Emerging markets
• Advisory forums
 Australia: Industry Forum to Advise on
Convergence Issues
 Japan: Next Generation Network promotion forum
 UK: NGN Industry Body
 India: Joint Consultative Committee &
NGN Coordination Committee
25 May 2006
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10
Needs for a new regulatory paradigm
under regional and intl. discussion
• ERG: 2006 Common Positions
 Principles for IP interconnection
 Regulatory principles for NGNs
• CEPT
 Consultations on interconnection model
 Many activities related to non-economic regulation
• CITEL and APEC-TEL
 Convergence, NGN, VoIP
• OECD
 Studies on IP related issues
• WTO
 First considerations on Agreement on Basic
telecommunications
• ITU
 Global discussion / What rules on the IP-enabled NGNs?
25 May
2006 2006) / [email protected]
11
(March
of Voice (January 2007)
New and Emerging markets
• SMP concept
 Fundamental regulatory questions
confronted with long term goals of the
economic and industrial policy
 Discussion on implications of the regulatory
holidays
• Relevant markets
 Wholesale – New access technologies do
influence in particular broadband definitions
 Retail – all market may be redefined
• New balance between ex-ante
regulations and ex post remedies
• Effectiveness of self correcting forces
in a competitive marketplace
25 May 2006
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Interconnection in IP environment
• Distinctions in periods
 Transitional and mature
• Competition oriented regulation
 It is possible that in NGN environment the
intervention in setting the interconnection
agreements will be smaller
• New model?
 Conflict between technology independence,
cost based regulation, and significant
market power. For the migration phase zero
or low rate model for call termination may
be advantageous. In the long term new
model (see ECC 2005) with full separation
of services provision and connectivity.
25 May 2006
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Open character and reality
• Telco Model versus Internet Model
• Similar to the internet
 NGN offers horizontally integrated model
with separated NGN services and NGN
Transport layer
• Market structure
 Very different
• Who determines the openness
 Vertically integrated services and network
operators together with regulatory
obligations
• Meaning of the contnet providers still
underestimated in the discussion
25 May 2006
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Next Generation Universal Service
• Definition of the universal service and
the scope of the services to be included
 Inclusion of the broadband in Europe
triggered very difficult debate
• Possible change of approach
 Migration to the universal access approach
• Unified prices and affordability
• NGN is much more efficient
 CAPEX and OPEX up to 40% lower
 More services on the network
• Universal service funds
 Possible sources of financing
• Customer protection
25 May 2006
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Customer interests protection
• Universal service and access
• Consumer emergency calls
(E112/E911)
• Consumer protection and privacy (e.g.
SPAM, SPIM)
• Quality of services
• Authenticated caller or sender
identification
• Disability assistance
• Data protection and privacy issues
25 May 2006
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16
Conclusions
25 May 2006
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Society together!
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Conclusions
• NGN will bring significant changes for
the regulatory framework
• The changes will be implemented rather
in a way of natural evolution then drastic
revolution
• Competition is key to the NGN; on the
other hand NGN fosters competition
 new entrance opportunities for operating
companies as well as newcomers / NGN
creates new markets and reinforce position of
some market players
• New balance between ex-ante
25 May 2006
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regulations
and ex
post remedies
18
Conclusions
• Effectiveness of self correcting forces in a
competitive marketplace
• The tempo of the NGN deployment
depends on the effective regulation
• Regulatory proceeding determine
incentives to invest for both new entrants
and incumbents
• Regulatory policy should take into account
the dynamic efficiencies to be achieved in
the ICT sector
• Balance between facility based
competition and service based competition
should
25 May 2006 be preserved
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Implications for the region
• NGNs may develop much faster in
countries with poor infrastructure
• Regulatory harmonization and pro-active
participation in the debate on the future
regulatory paradigme is crucial
• It diminishes investment risk that is very
high in transition economies anyway
Please do not wait and
give your voice to this debate!
25 May 2006
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Information and Communication
Technologies in Caspian and
Black See Region
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Society together!
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Measuring
Opportunities
Digital Opportunity Index
1/3
Opportunity
Utilization
1/3
DOI
WISR 2006
New ITU’s Series
Infrastructure
1/3
25 May 2006
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Digital Opportunity
Index
percentage of population
covered by mobile
cellular telephony
internet users
per 100 inhabitants
ratio of broadband
internet subscribers to
internet subscribers
mobile cellular tariffs
as a percentage of
per capita income
internet access tariffs
as a percentage of
per capita income
DOI
proportion of households
with a computer
Proportion of households
with fixed line telephone
mobile cellular subscribers
per 100 inhabitants
25 May 2006
ratio of broadband
mobile subscribers to
mobile internet subscribers
mobile internet subscribers
per 100 inhabitants
proportion of households with
Internet access at home
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Digital Opportunity
Index
New ITU’s Series
25 May 2006
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Digital Opportunity
Index
WISR 2006
New ITU’s Series
25 May 2006
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25
DOI: In-depth analysis
Opportunity
Infrastructure
Use
DOI
Rank
Bulgaria
0.96
0.34
0.22
0.51
46
Romania
0.93
0.26
0.20
0.46
53
Turkey
0.97
0.30
0.08
0.45
58
Russia
0.96
0.25
0.13
0.45
60
Iran
0.89
0.16
0.03
0.36
95
Georgia
0.92
0.12
0.13
0.39
84
Kazakhstan
0.94
0.17
0.02
0.38
89
Ukraine
0.91
0.17
0.02
0.37
93
Azerbaijan
0.90
0.15
0.02
0.36
99
Moldova
0.68
0.14
0.07
0.30
115
Turkmenistan
0.72
0.07
0.00
0.26
127
Kyrgyzstan
0.55
0.09
0.01
0.22
134
Armenia
0.70
0.15
0.02
0.29
120
Tajikistan
0.53
0.05
0.01
0.20
140
Czech Republic
0.98
0.42
0.13
0.51
43
Poland
25 May 2006
Hungary
0.98
0.52
39
26
34
0.98
0.39
0.19
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0.43
0.24
0.55
DOI: Use
Internet per 100
inhab.
Fixed broadband to total
Internet subs.
Mobile broad-band to total
mobile
Bulgaria
0.24
0.42
0.00
Romania
0.21
0.39
0.00
Turkey
0.09
0.14
0.00
Russia
0.12
0.27
0.00
Iran
0.07
0.02
0.00
Georgia
0.04
0.34
0.00
Kazakhstan
0.07
0.00
0.00
Ukraine
0.07
0.00
0.00
Azerbaijan
0.05
0.00
0.00
Moldova
0.09
0.13
0.00
Turkmenistan
0.00
0.00
0.00
Kyrgyzstan
0.03
0.00
0.00
Armenia
0.07
0.00
0.00
Tajikistan
0.01
0.02
0.00
Czech Rep.
0.29
0.08
0.00
Poland
25 May 2006
Hungary
0.22
0.22
0.36
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0.49
0.00
0.00
27
Digital Opportunity
Utilization
WISR 2006
New ITU’s Series
25 May 2006
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DOI: Opportunities
Mobile population
coverage
Internet
affordability
Mobile
affordability
Bulgaria
0.98
0.97
0.92
Romania
0.97
0.87
0.96
Turkey
0.96
0.96
0.98
Russia
0.95
0.96
0.98
Iran
0.70
0.99
0.98
Georgia
0.95
0.89
0.92
Kazakhstan
0.94
0.92
0.97
Ukraine
0.91
0.93
0.90
Azerbaijan
0.97
0.87
0.86
Moldova
0.92
0.58
0.54
Turkmenistan
0.50
0.68
0.98
Kyrgyzstan
0.40
0.57
0.68
Armenia
0.81
0.43
0.87
Tajikistan
0.30
0.47
0.83
Czech Republic
0.99
0.98
0.98
Poland
25 May 2006
Hungary
0.98
0.98
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0.98
0.98
0.99
0.98
29
DOI: Infrastructure
% households
with fixed line
Mobile per
100 inhab.
% households
with Internet
Mobile
Internet per
100 inhab.
Bulgaria
0.83
0.59
0.10
0.03
0.15
Romania
0.62
0.47
0.06
0.04
0.12
Turkey
0.82
0.51
0.07
0.01
0.11
Russia
0.60
0.51
0.05
0.00
0.11
Iran
0.65
0.06
0.04
0.00
0.07
Georgia
0.33
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.06
Kazakhstan
0.61
0.16
0.02
0.00
0.05
Ukraine
0.53
0.27
0.01
0.00
0.03
Azerbaijan
0.53
0.18
0.02
0.00
0.04
Moldova
0.53
0.14
0.01
0.01
0.03
Turkmenistan
0.35
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
Kyrgyzstan
0.33
0.06
0.01
0.00
0.04
Armenia
0.67
0.05
0.02
0.00
0.02
Tajikistan
0.20
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
Czech Rep.
0.62
1.00
0.19
0.01
0.30
Poland
25 May 2006
Hungary
0.75
0.60
0.26
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0.86
0.14
0.01
0.36
30
0.33
0.71
0.09
% households
with PC
Challenges for the Countries in
Caspian and Black See Region
25 May 2006
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Society together!
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Challenges
• Progress in regulatory reform
• Pro-competitive policy approach
• Enabling regulatory environment
 Infrastructure development,
modernization…
 Voice over Internet Protocol…
• Mobile telecommunications
 Dissemination of 2.5G / 2.75G / 3G
 Mobile Virtual Network Operators
 Licensing: Emerging technologies
25 May 2006
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Thank you very much
for your attention!
Jaroslaw K. Ponder
International Telecommunication Union
Strategy and Policy Unit
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.itu.int/spu
Tel: 00 41 22 730 60 65
25 May 2006
We all build the Information
Society together!
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33
Resources
• Full version of this presentation and
others focusing on regulation:
www.itu.int/osg/spu/presentations/
• NGN regulatory and policy resources:
http://www.itu.int/osg/spu/ngn/
ngn-policy-regulatory-resources.html
• ITU activities on NGN:
www.itu.int/spu/ngn
25 May 2006
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34
International
Telecommunication
Union
25 May 2006
We all build the Information
Society together!
[email protected]
35
ITU - International
Telecommunication Union
• The oldest specialized UN agency with
more than 140 years of experience in
communication sector
• Headquarters in Geneva plus regional
offices
• ITU staff: more than 750 from more
than 80 countries
• 189 member states, more than 640
sector members
• ITU Agenda for Change
• Structure of the ITU
 ITU-T – Telecom Standardization
 ITU-R – Radio-communications
 ITU-D – Development Bureau
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ITU – International
Telecommunication Union
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ITU’s Strategy and
Policy Unit (SPU)
• New Initiatives Programme
Digital Bridges (2005)
Ubiquitous Network Societies (2005)
Today’s Networks Tomorrow (2005)
What Rules for IP-enabled NGNs? (2006)
Digital Transformations in the Information
Society (2006)
 Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile
Multimedia Services (2006)
• Many other activities…





25 May 2006
http://www.itu.int/spu
[email protected]
38