Transcript 右腦的世界

右腦思維看NGN
Next Generation Network
The NGN is for Future?
Right Brainer Creates
Victor Chiu 邱武志
Vice President
Chunghwa Telecom Labs
The NGN is for Future?
1. TL - Telecom Labs
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Link the telecom services with Maslow‘s law
The human brain, the universe, the Internet
The Internet is broken
NGN is coming to the Rescue?
Light speed NGN in CHT (Chunghwa Telecom)
Taiwan matters
Paradigm shift: the Ad is the King
Concluding remarks
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Slide Show
右腦思維看
中華電信研究所
TL - Telecom Labs
Taiwan: an ICT Island
IP Phone
VoIP Router
e-Government
Ethernet SW
PC/Notebook
worldwide No. 1
Wi-Fi
IP STB
DSL CPE
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Source: ITU
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Convergence service at CHT
Deliver IPTV to 1 million
customers
VoBB application – IPPBX
3.5G
Home health care
M – enterprise
PSTN
Home control and
security
FTTx
入口網站 (Web Portal)
HOME
通訊錄 (Phonebook)
電子名片 (Caller’s Note)
US$6Billions
ISP
Personal
Business
FTTH/FTTB/FTTN
3.5G HSDPA
Residential application
with IPv6
VOBB
位置資訊 (Location Info)
使用記錄 (User Log)
分享空間 (Sharing Space)
ADSL
一點就通 (Click to Dial)
一點就傳 (Click to Send IM)
Mobile
Datacomm
一點就發 (Click to Send SMS)
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Chunghwa Telecom TL - Telecom Labs
中華電信研究所
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
人文薈萃 1300人
資源充沛 (NT$300萬/人)
10%自主創意研發
內外兼修
國際化
鳥語花香
7. 上日下月兩湖
8. 鳥鳴蛙叫
9. 松 楓 櫻 野薑花
10.濕地松 落羽松
11.原生種植物列管
12.數(樹)位造林 節能減碳 CSR
翠
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2. Link the telecom services with
Maslow‘s Hierarchy of Needs
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Paradigm Shift: from technology to user
賣方市場
買方市場
共生市場
Importance
Technology-driven
Paradigm
Customer-oriented
Paradigm
User-centered
Paradigm
Paradigm
Shift ?
Paradigm
Shift !
Today
Time
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Traditional old good days (1/2)
賣方市場
Focus
Best Technology!
R&D for Technology not for customer
Characteristics
Conducted by Experts
Traditional marketing concept 4P or 4C
Issues:
The returns may not always be
proportional to the efforts
New products could not meet Users’
Needs
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Traditional old good days - 4P (2/2)
賣方市場
Product


The effect of differentiation is
decreasing
The rise of No-Brand strategy
Price
The price is not equal to the
value
 Price-cutting competitions
cause the bottleneck
Red ocean

Promotion


Advertisement lacks creativity
Customers are easy to lose their
patience
Place


The depression of specialized
channels
Customers could purchase at
anytime on the internet easily.
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買方市場(1/2)
Customer-oriented- 4C
(Deregulated Market)
(Customer-oriented 4Cs, Complements of 4Ps)
1. Customer Needs
Be active to find out
Customers’ needs
2. Cost
Be active to find out
customers’ expected Costs
3. Communication
Be active to Communicate with
customers
4. Convenience
Be active to offer Conveniences
for customers
Customer-oriented 4Cs
by Robert Lauterborn
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買方市場(2/2)
Building Customer’s Loyalty: 4Rs
Relevancy among Needs and Professions
(Product -> Customer’s Need -> Relevancy)
Reward (Retribution) to Customers
(Price -> Cost -> Reward)
Relationship (CRM) (CVM)
(Promotion -> Communication -> Relationship)
Re-action/Response immediately
(Place -> Convenience -> Re-action)
Target : to build Customers’ Loyalty
Complemented by Don. E. Schuhz
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共生市場 (1/2)
User-Centered Logic
UGC: User Generated Content
 Focus :
Abstracting
Users’ Creativities &
Innovations!!!
Users would be the Sources of Creativities.
 Characteristics:
Interactions between the operators and users
- Users’ Participation
 Issues：
-How to transfer users’ passive attitude into
Active Users’ Participation?
-How to Make Money from these creativities?
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共生市場 (2/2)
Customers  Users = Human being
共生市場 - 大家都是CHT的老爺
Customer = Who Pays
e.g. Entrepreneur, Advertiser…
User = Operator
Including: Entrepreneur, Employees,
Client’s Customers, Client’s Suppliers,
Client’s Shareholders, …etc.
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Maslow‘s Hierarchy of Needs (1954 Edition)
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Maslow’s Hierarchy of Human Needs (8 level)
Transcendence
helping others to self-actualize
Self-actualization
personal growth, self-fulfilment
Aesthetic needs
beauty, balance, form, etc
Abstracted from
Abraham Maslow (19081970 ) ”Personality
Theories” (1970 edition)
Cognitive needs
knowledge, meaning, self-awareness
Esteem needs
achievement, status, responsibility, reputation
Belongingness and Love needs
family, affection, relationships, work group, etc
Safety needs
protection, security, order, law, limits, stability, etc
Biological and Physiological needs
basic life needs - air, food, drink, shelter, warmth, sex, sleep, etc.
Transcendence: go beyond; aesthetic: appreciation of the art
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Web 2.0
Interaction
Participation
Sharing
vs. Human Needs
Perfectionism
Transcendence
Self-actualization
Aesthetic needs
Enthusiasm
!?
SelfExpression
by Sharing
Goal
Achievement
Authority/Power
Cognitive needs
Esteem needs
Esteem
Participation
Belongingness and Love needs Community’s
Position/Status
Belongingness
Interaction
Safety
Safety needs
Biological and Physiological needs
獨立性、受肯定、成就感、休閒時
間、權力、聲望、財富、壓力、自
尊、家庭、安全感、成長
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Examples of User- Centered
User-oriented
“Users’ III… are VIPs”
Google AdSense
Users’ III…
 Incentives
 Innovation
 Invention
Value


 Inter-dependency
To Build good Interdependent relationship
with users, furthermore,
for coexistence with
them.
 Participation &
Emphasized on
sharing
Integrated Value
Participation & Sharing
(products,
customers, users, by users
brands…)
Generating
Profits from
offering
Integrated Value
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The human brain,
the universe,
the Internet
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The universe?
The brain network?
The Internet!
Internet Map from WiKi
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Magical Human Brain (1/2)
rhythm節奏
R(右)
L(左)
logic邏輯
spatial awareness
空間認知
Gestalt (whole picture)
全形
imagination想像
numbers數字
sequence順序
linearity線性
daydreaming白日夢
colour顏色
words文字
analysis分析
Right brainer creates
dimension大小
lists清單
 Functions of left and right brain
 In his famous book Blink, Malcolm Gladwell, a staff writer for
The New Yorker since 1996, explained how the human
subconscious interprets events or cues and how past
experiences allow people to make informed decisions
in the blink of an eye.
資料來源：工業技術研究院創意中心
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Magical Human Brain (2/2)
“the most complex thing we have yet
discovered in our universe”
When involved in higher mental activity, including
perception, problem solving, fear, and
consciousness, the EEG of human brain is often
recorded as Gamma rhythms, with frequency
ranging approximately 26–100 Hz.
rithem
James Watson, who won the Nobel Prize for
helping discover DNA, described the human
brain as “the most complex thing we have
yet discovered in our universe”.
Electroencephalography (EEG) is the measurement of electrical activity
produced by the brain as recorded from electrodes placed on the scalp.
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Network of Human Brain
 A typical human brain contains some 100 billion nerve
cells, each of which connects and communicates with up to
10,000 of its colleagues, and forming a million new
connections for every second of our lives.
 The pattern and strength of the connections is constantly
changing and extremely difficult to be simulated by
computers.
 Human brain has great potential…
Light speed network is
for the network of
human Brain!
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The Internet is broken
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廢舊換新 網路面臨革命
聯合報4/15/2007
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The Internet is Broken?
Hypotheses design of Internet
Traffic flows are to be able to trust, every end
point is well-behaved.
Network fairness rely on the well-behaved
end points, the Internet is supposed no
management to them.



The communication protocols are supposed to
work with rules, once the congestion is detected,
they lower generating packets to the internet
automatically
End points pay costs：buffer、jitter
Diffserv、MPLS-TE、NSIS、RSVP are invented to
patch the Internet，however，the original Internet
design has become a barrier
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The original design of Internet
 Is not designed for commercial, including telecom
 Best-effort
 The network seems to be a black box, and does not provide
information of network allocation to end points
 Network administrators nowadays hope to see more
information from network
 IPv4 mobility issues
 Mobile IP is introduced，with the problems of IP address
cost、triangle transition
 IPv6 with embedded mobility
 Multicast is a patched function
 it is still under question whether the benefits implied by the
introduction of IP Multicast would compensate and
overreach the complexity of its deployment and
management in the network level .
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Basic Principle of Internet
 Connectionless、End-to-end、Best effort
 Original design：connectionless、transmit ion of
packet of variable length
RSVP 、MPLS-TE、DiffSer
 without constrains of traffic , it permits end points
transmit packets to any other end points directly,
and gives up the responsibility of security
security issues such as junk mail、DDOS
IPSec is introduced，increasing the overhead of end
points
Two end points may communicate without intermediate
servers
cache、firewalls are introduced，without considering
the issues of IMS、SIP…
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How could Internet keep progressing?
Patch is the only solution as a doctor’s operation



The solution has always been patching the Internet issue individually, however,
this way increases the complexity of Internet, makes the Internet more difficult
to manage, and makes new application more difficult to be adopted.
例如針對出現的問題個別解決，在目前體系上增加容量 ，這是一直以來的方式，
但增加了Internet的複雜性，變得更難以管理、新應用更難以適應
Internet has been Ossified, it’s difficult to patch！
Revolution？





By the end of 2003, US NSF funded ”100x100 clean slate project” with $750M
GENI、PlanetLab
Ethean
Orbit
….
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NGN is coming to the Rescue?







The patched-Internet based technology
QoS
IMS
FMC
Triple play/ Quadruple play
SDP, SOA
Ecosystem
 Let’s wait and see
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Next Generation Internet is evolving
 GENI - Global Environment for Networking
Innovations (NSF)
 Clean-Slate design for the Internet (Stanford University)
 100x100 clean slate project
 ORBIT
 Ethane: A Security Management Architecture
 FIND - Future Internet Network Design
 Autonomic Communication Forum
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100x100 Clean Slate Project
supports 100 Mbps of
connectivity between all
100 Million American
homes
 … if we were not bound
by existing design
decisions and would be
able to design the
network from first
principles (a clean slate
design), how should we
do it?
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PlanetLab
Key ideas

Slice
 Substrate resources
bound to a particular
experiment

Virtualization
 multiple architectures
on a shared
infrastructure

Programmable
 virtually no limit on
new designs
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Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Radu Popescu-Zeletin：Next generation Networks R&D Programme and Directions
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Autonomic communication
AutoComm Applicability and Expectations

In human-to-human
 Network elements transparently to humans...

In business-to-business
 More seamlessly integrated into business tasks and
environments

In human-to-machine
 Perform services autonomously, or adjust the behavior of
services the user might request implicitly or explicitly

In machine-to-machine
 Help components to self-organize into composite entities,
optimally providing required complex functions
Fraunhofer Fokus：Autonomic Communication Research Agenda for a New Communication Paradigm
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Principles: Autonomic communication
 Autonomic communication principles
















Gigabit over wireless will be the backbone
Ad hoc wireless network will take over fixed networks
Ubiquitous composability of P2P services
On-demand protocol stack
IPvX will not remain the only networking morpheme
Self scalable (evolvable) systems
Group communication for control plane tasks: programmable and
controlled
Policy will self-organize via policy computation and distributed conflict
resolution and policy context
Programmable rule-based systems
Design for conflicts
Role-based architecture
Context awareness
Self-similarity of selfware
Security:auditing and danger models
Autonomic routing
composition
Morpheme: like(1), unlikely(3)语素
Fraunhofer Fokus：Autonomic Communication Research Agenda for a New Communication Paradigm
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Moving to NGI from current Internet
Next Generation Internet
Disruptive/Clean slate innovation
FMC
NGN
SDP
Quadruple play
IMS
SOA
Firewall solutions
current Internet
RSVP
NAT issues
DDOS issues
MPLS-TE
IPSec for security issues
The patched Internet
DiffServ
Multicast complexity
Mobie IP solutions: triangle routing, IP address issues
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Light speed NGN in
Chunghwa Telecom
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Light-Speed NGN in Chunghwa Telecomm
FTTH, a kind of big thing, a big
TRANSFORMATION!
Means:
“not only speed & quality, but also
instantaneously sharing & joining together.
Because of high speed, anyone onto the NET
acts into the same moment.”
賀陳董事長：「光世代」不只意味著網路使用上的高速度，與優質的傳輸品質，還帶有分享與
參與零落差的意義，「因為快速，讓每個人都可藉由網路融入在同一個剎那。
–HeChen Dan, Chairman Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.
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CHT Broadband Network Evolution
FTTH
WiMAX / B3G
NGN-FMC
100M
Ethernet-based
FTTB & FTTH
NGN
FTTB+xDSL
10M
High Quality
Internet Surfing
2005
2006
Triple Play
Services
Differentiated
Service
2007
2008
2009
2010
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3 Broadband Plans in Taiwan
2002
e-Taiwan
2003
2004
M-Taiwan
U-Taiwan
 e-Taiwan project initiated in 2002
 M-Taiwan plan in 2003
 U-Taiwan plan in 2004
 6 million broadband users by 2010.
 Platform for Broadband applications and services.
 FTTH and WiFi, WiMAX
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Regulator decides who win(s)
(螳螂捕蟬 黄雀在後 獵人全看在眼裡)
IT/ISP
Cable
Telco
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Taiwan matters
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Source: III
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May 06, 2005
#1 Provider of
notebook PCs,
with 72% of the
market worth $22
billion
Source: III
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Number of U.S. patents and rank
(cases)
USA
90,000
80,000
85,072
Japan
Germany
Taiwan
Korea
UK
France
Canada
Italy
84,271
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
35,350
30,000
31,296
20,000
10,234 10,779
5,938
3,380
3,374
4,428
3,450
1,584
4,667
3,667
3,819
3,419
1,714
3,314
10,000
0
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’
’00-04’ (year)
Source: III
Note: Number of U.S. patents (excluding new design)
Source: U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, 2005
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Paradigm Shift in the US 典範移轉
1900~1930
1930~1960
1960~1990
1990~2000
2000~
Microsoft
美國鋼鐵
Steel
通用汽車
IBM
Intel
What’s Next
GAMeY?
Source: III
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World wide Software and Hardware in 2001
< 2001 manufacturing industry vs. creative / content industry>
主要製造產業
主要創意及內容產業
類別
全球市場規模
類別
全球市場規模
造船Ship
460
動畫Animation
750
半導體Semicon
1,390
遊戲Game
1,704
記憶體Memory
249
電影Movies
677
影像顯示Display
144
音樂Music
337
影音設備A/V
381
漫畫Carton
1,220
鋼鐵Steel
4,915
廣播及電視
Radio &TV
1,780
(不含鋼鐵)
2,624
總計
6,468
總計
7,539
總計
Unit: hundred million USD
Source: III
50
Source: KOCCA, Korea, 2003/10
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10. Why Right-Brainer Will Rule
the Future?
‘Shakespeare invented humanity’
右腦的世界
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Why Right-Brainer Will Rule the Future?
52 is coming
CCO
CEO
CFO
CCO
CIO/CTO
Chief Creative Officer
6 abilities of high concept
1
Design:理念的设计
4
Not just function
Empathy:同理心
Not just logic
2
Story:
5
Play:
3
Symphony:
6
Meaning:
Not just argument
Not just focus
Source: III
Not just seriousness
Not just accumulation
Source: A whole new mind, Daniel H. Pink 2005
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右腦的世界
Everyone knows ……
運用數位魔法，讓經典文化「點石成金」–以英國為例
文化創意是筆好生意
自1996年首度發行，
「古墓奇兵」系列遊
戲，全球已銷售超過
3千萬套，更以「正
統英國風」訴求，讓
虛擬主角「蘿拉」魅
力無法擋，從遊戲、
代言、翻拍為電影，
一路紅到好萊塢！
自1997年第一集問世，「哈利波特」系列書與電影已
締造超過30億美元商機，電玩遊戲軟體，銷售數百萬
套；讓作者羅琳的財富高達6億英鎊，超越英國女王，
創造出一個產值驚人的「哈利波特」品牌企業！
數位科技，讓英國傳統的文化創意界產生質變；而倫敦不再是大家既
有印象中的樣子，只有多霧的天氣，還有古老的石子路而已！
古典與現代，人文與科技
驚艷倫敦「新SOHO」
1990年代開始，
尋求較低廉房租
的藝術家們陸續
進駐，讓這裡搖
身一變，成為新
興的文化創意園
區，儼然是倫敦
的新「蘇活」區
經濟體質和城市外
觀的改變相輔相成，
古老的英國國會大
廈與大笨鐘，和當
初為了迎接千禧年
而建造的摩天輪
「倫敦眼」，隔河
相望！
53
Source: III
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Beyond canvas, colors and paint brush
Innovation,
value
右腦的世界
Davinci
Infrastructure,
network
paint brush
colors
Raffaello
Michelangelo
canvas
Florence (Renaissance)
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Why Taiwan matters but not that significant…
killer product/applications
Breakthrough discoveries
火車、收音機/電視、電腦…
古典力學/蒸汽機、電磁學/電動
機、原子、DNA、電晶體…
industrial paradigms
右腦的世界
福特主義、物質經濟、知識
經濟、意義經濟…
Significant social thoughts
資本主義、社會主義、新中
間路線、依賴理論…
impressive cultural projections
Source: III
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Software and Hardware in the US
右腦的世界
Production Value (Billion USD)
3,000
2,500
Software & Information Service
Hardware
1,022.23
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
1,688.57
587.71
439.04
57%
61%
43%
39%
1997
2000
65%
63%
37%
35%
0
2005
2010
Source: III
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Software (6%) and Hardware (94%) in Taiwan
Production Value (Million USD)
120,000
Taiwan’s ICT industry
左腦的世界
5,780
Software
5,400
Hardware
100,000
5,060
4,800
80,000
4,360
4,204
60,000
40,000
69,664
48,435
81,108
89,234
97,839
57,171
20,000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: III
Source: Input, MIC/III, 2002/3
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右腦的世界
11. C
$
R 可以賺錢
The Fortune at the Bottom
of the Pyramid
By C.K. Prahalad
The world's most exciting, fastest-growing
Digital
Content
Flat Panel Displaynew market? It'sTelecom
where you least expect it:
at the bottom of the pyramid. Collectively,
the world's billions of poor
Cultural &
Semiconductor
people have immense entrepreneurial
S/W & IS
Creative
capabilities and buying power… It is
being done-profitably. Whether you're a
ICT/HW
Biomedical
business leader
or an anti-poverty activist,
Bio-IT
business guru Prahalad shows
why you can't afford to ignore
"Bottom of the Pyramid" (BOP)
markets.
Ref: III
58
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Economist’s reflection on Digital Divide
右腦的世界
Behind the digital divide
Mar 10th 2005
Mobile phones can boost development in
poor countries—if governments let them
The real digital divide
Mar 10th 2005
Encouraging the spread of mobile
phones it the most sensible and effective
response to the digital divide
Mobile phones and development
Jul 7th 2005
Mobile phones can boost development in
poor countries—if governments let them
Source: EIU, 2005
59
Source: III
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Device Network
NGN IP
Network
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Requirement for Future IP Network
(IP always ?)
左腦思惟
E-mail
Web surfing
Home Broadband
Video Phone
Home Decoration
CE-based DVR
Parallel recording
Multimedia
Entertainment
NGN IP
Network
Distance Healthcare
Video Conference
Mobile phone
Data
Audio
Video
Mobility
10/20/40/100M…？
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from Device Network to Human
Network
右腦的世界手感聽覺触覺外也要色香味 Body/sensor network
Hearing
Sight
Touch
NGN
IP
Smell？
Network
Taste？
…？
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Advertisement is the King
GAMeY* AD revenue boost
1. Google + Yahoo! =~58% of US
Online Ad Revenue (2006Q3)
Telco’s embarrassment
1.Decreasing ARPU
2.Large NGN CAPEX
It’s time to find some way to
generate revenue from online ad.
Key product of Google
1. AdWords
Unprofitable business model
2. Toolbar Plug-in for Web Browser
What is the next step? Video search ?
Intenet giant saw 46% increase in Q3/2007
profit on strong advertising operations. Google
GAMEY: Google, AoL, MSN, eBay, Yahoo!
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Paradigm shift: from Advertisement
Flat rate $ <<< Ad $ , Don’t expect your subscriber to pay more
Global Online Advertising Revenue
Global Mobile Advertising Spending
(dollars in billions and % of total ad spend)
(dollars in millions)
Good News !!!
Internet Household Penetration (%)
80
70
60
Taiwan
Source: eMarketer “Mobile Marketing and Advertising” (2007).
50
40
30
High penetration: 70.1 % (2010)
20
10
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005p
2006
2007
2008
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, “Global Entertainment
and Media Outlook: 2006-2010”, June 2006.
2009
2010
Higher penetration rate of
Internet and mobile service is
advantageous for CHT to make
money from online ad..
Year
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Closing Remarks
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Technology is for life
Technology always
comes with
human desire
創新總來自於民生
（食衣住行育樂）
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右腦思惟 ........
紙，顏料，彩筆，印刷機 (工廠)
名畫，名著，暢銷書，文物 (頭腦)
您貴庚？ 38? 生理年齡
知識心智年齡
武功 : 補習班，武術館
身心靈 : 少林寺，電信研究所
me too, follower，我也要
創意公司，發明家
自力獨力
艦隊，群力，共生
1 +1 =?
2=?
月租/使用費(PSTN距離時間) 95%
廣告，交易服務費(光世代) 5%
電機資訊 "專業”
文化芸术 美學 经营管理 国际观 多
元化素養的 ICT 電信资讯 專業人士
PSTN: 網路平台
NGN: 服務平台 + 應用服務 (廣告)
CHT, NGN
CHT 2.0, 2gNGN, ngNGN, NGN 2.0
方正「苦幹」「實幹」
巧智 動腦筋「巧幹」
Telco
GAMeY (Google, AOL, MS, eBay, Yahoo)
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吳祥輝: 芬蘭驚艷 盼帶給台灣啟發
芬蘭國小課本的數學課本：囯际观，科学观，文化观，右脑观
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日本第一
日本第一曾經喊得舉世震動, 日本在2000年經濟隨全
球泡沫化, 2005才掙脫景氣低迷
日本被認為不善原創，但精於模仿，而且更有精進
日本第一之後，就需回歸日本原創，已無前者可玆
模仿，手足無措當可理解 (但 Wii, Pokemon, ..)
日本一直是台灣的模仿對象，但台灣並沒有超越日
本，贏得世界第一，但得Taiwan Matters
台灣的識別與價質典範在那裡？
識別與價質典範均需來自原創，原創來自於以文化
為根的右腦思惟
Ref:吳祥輝: 芬蘭驚艷
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国际舞台上的中华电信
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