Transcript PL08_ICT_Kennismaatschappij

ICT en de Kennismaatschappij
Paul Lagasse
Vakgroep Informatietechnologie
Vakgroep Informatietechnologie INTEC
5. Innovation
Vakgroep Informatietechnologie INTEC
Innovation
“Seeing What’s Next”
C.M. Christensen et al
 How will this innovation change an industry, and what
impact does it have on the firms I care about?
 Which are real opportunities and which are transient?
 What would signal that the game is changing, meaning
what was successful in the past would no longer
guarantee success in the future?
 What implication would that change have on the
industry’s value chain?
Seeing What’s Next shows how to use the theories of
innovation developed in The Innovator’s Dilemma and The
Innovator’s Solution – and introduces some new ones as well
– to answer these sort of questions
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The Future of Telecommunications
Technological shifts underpinning the telecom
burnout of 2000-2002
 Network core altered by important innovations.
 Attempts to unlock the metropolitan area.
 Freeing users from wires
 Providing users many new devices and service
offerings.
 Data quickly replacing voice as as the dominant
form of network traffic.
C. M. Christensen
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Could any of those new developments pose a
credible long-term threat to incumbents?
YES , disruptive growth is everywhere.
Companies are:
 Bringing voice services into new contexts.
 Building low-cost business models.
 Developing new skills.
C. M. Christensen
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We evaluate two specific developments:
 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP).
 Wireless data.
C. M. Christensen
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Strengths and weaknesses of incumbents and
industry circumstances
Resources:
 Established networks.
 Existing customers.
 Cash balances.
 Powerful brands.
C. M. Christensen
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Strengths and weaknesses of incumbents and
industry circumstances
Skills:
 Building and maintaining large
networks.
 Managing small incremental
transactions.
 Handling government regulation.
 Providing network services.
C. M. Christensen
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Strengths and weaknesses of incumbents and
industry circumstances
Values:
 High gross margin business (60%).
 Historically focused on voice calls: 60% of
revenues.
 Voice call billed and costs allocated based on
the length, location, distance, and time of day of
a user’s call.
 Data and wireless each 20% of revenues.
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Signals of change in telecommunications
Nonconsumers:
 New contexts in which people might want to use
their voice to communicate but cannot.
Overshot customers:
 Customers tolerate relatively poorer-performing
technologies in exchange for convenience,
portability, and low marginal prices for calls.
Government regulation
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Voice over IP
Could be implemented as:
 A sustaining innovation to lower internal costs
and add high-value features and functionality.
 As a low-end disruption bringing good enough
service at low price points.
 As a market disruption that makes high-end
features more affordable to the masses.
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Voice over IP in the enterprise:
Evidence suggests co-option by incumbents
 Their customers want IP solutions.
 Enable incumbents to sustain their business
models by lowering their operating costs and
increasing their gross margins.
 Data networks and voice networks have
significant points of overlap.
 VoIP could be an exciting new market disruptive
growth opportunity for incumbents.
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Voice over IP in the enterprise:
Potential asymmetries limiting ability to co-opt:
 Waiting to build new networks until IP gets good
enough.
 Mind set and business model that data requires,
one based on capacity rather than minutes of
use.
Probably too weak to allow for disruption.
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Voice over IP in the residence:
Looming low-end battles:
 Skype, Vonage specialist providers that offer
stripped down, lower priced service:
characteristics of low-end disruption.
 IP enables the separation of the traditional
interdependency between transport and
services.
The need for volume motivates the incumbents
to respond to disruptive incursions.
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The threath of decoupling:
IP enables the decoupling of the traditional
interdependency between transport and services:
 Users could purchase customised and
configurable services from specialised service
providers.
 Specialists could build asymmetric skills
relagating incumbents to provide “naked
transport”.
C. M. Christensen
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Wireless data
3G technologies developed end of the 1980s
 European operators spent billions of Euros
acquiring scarce spectrum licenses.
 Operators spent billions more trying to improve
the technologies to enable the seamless
provision and delivery of up to 2Mb/s of data.
 By 2002 the license investments were decried as
a huge waste of money since the demanding
applications had not materialized.
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Wireless data
3G technologies developed end of the 1980s
 Most operators tried to “cram” a technology to
meet the need of the most demanding
customers, instead of embracing simple
opportunities that would delight customers .
 NTT DoCoMo in Japan, showed how a path
focused on simple services – targeted at
nonconsumers of wireline data services such as
teenage girls- could drive disruptive growth.
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Wireless data
WiFi: disruptive growth and then ….co-option?
 WiFi used to set up WLAN “hot spots”.
 This is classic new market disruptive growth,
making it easier for people to do something they
historically prioritized- accessing data anywhere,
anytime, at relatively high speeds.
 Companies such as Mesh Networks are
attempting to build a network with no central
architecture- devices can communicate with
other devices.
 To move upmarket these providers need to
C. M. Christensen
overcome some serious technological
challenges.
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Wireless data
WiFi: disruptive growth and then ….co-option?
 Early providers took advantage of incumbent
disinterest in small markets.
 The key question is whether entrants develop
unique skills and business models. Context
makes flight unlikely.
 Entrants need to maximise independence of
value networks and develop new ways to reach
customers. Finding ways to combine WiFi and
VoIP is critical.
C. M. Christensen
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Traffic growth in Amsterdam Internet Exchange
Exponential demand, technology enabled
Source: “End user perspective on higher speed Ethernet” by Henk Steenman,
IEEE Higher Speed Interest Group meeting, Knoxville, TN, Sept 2006
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Thank you
DO NOT
FIGHT THE
CHANGES
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Thank you
Invent the changes
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