Transcript The Future of Mobile Games

The Future of Mobile Games
Greg Costikyan
[email protected]
www.costik.com/weblog
The Present: Technology
Interpreted Languages (J2ME, BREW,
et al.)
 Limited application size (<=128k)
 Security model prevents access to other
features on handset
 Limited network access (HTTP)
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The Present: Business

~$1b worldwide (but 60% in Asia)
 North America:
–
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–
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90+% of sales through operators
Charge on phone bill
~70% of revenues to publishers
~$200m revenues 2005
Europe:
– 70+% of sales through operators (rest through 3rd party portals)
– <=50% of revenues to publishers
– Charge through premium SMS
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Continuing rapid growth
Business (con’t)
One-time download fee ($3-$7)
 Additional cost for network use
(unpredictable)
 <5% of handsets are ‘smart’
 Difficult to market direct to consumers
(different deck navigation, short codes
by country, no premium SMS in US)
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The Present: Games
Sales on the basis of 1 line of text
 Consumers go for the familiar (licenses,
retro games, mobile versions of
PC/console)
 Operator deck placement critical
 Multiplayer not working
 Ultimately: Even less innovative than
PC/console games
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The Present: Non-Standard
Standards
The single toughest aspect of mobile
development
 Need global deployment for reasonable
revenues
 Typically, hundreds of builds for a single
title
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Short Term Developments
3D (EA sees it as “a console transition”)
 Spead of support for other networking
protocols (IP sockets, UDP [but most
operators bar UDP traffic])
 Spread of 3G
 Increasing application size
 …But no immediate change to business
model or core technology
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“Where’s the Killer App”
At conferences, both publishers and
operators give lip service to the need for
innovation…
 But actions don’t match words, because
branded games are what sell
 Probably not going to happen without
changes to consumer behavior,
business model, and/or technology
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Consumer behavior?
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Need to provide more information to
consumers
Game reviews available on some operators
(Verizon)
Few publications/websites review mobile
games though
Consumer marketing hard
MDFs on the horizon (not necessarily
positive)
Business Model?
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Push for 3rd party portals
Particularly hard in North America (diverse
network technologies; Qualcomm has lock on
BREW)
Download-and-hot-synch too complicated for
most users
Operators offering flat-fee data access (but
little consumer uptake yet)
I don’t have any good ideas here
What makes mobile unique?
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Ubiquity
WAN access
Voice
You already have a buddy list (it’s called your
phone book)
SMS, presence, etc…
Location
Pervasive gaming
But you can’t use any of this…
Java/BREW security model doesn’t
permit it
 More flexibility on smartphones (but
<5% of market)
 VoIP (Pathway to Glory is a start)

– But likely operator pushback
Technologies that may help
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Camera?
PoC (but little deployment yet)
LBS (but real technical issues)
SIP or IP for small-scale multiplayer (but not
for persistent server)
SNAP (but Nokia sponsorship may make
some reluctant)
WiFi-to-WAN roaming (reduced data cost)
Further Down the Road
Motion/other sensors
 Streaming media
 RFID (“the world is clickable”)
 Superdistribution
 Wearable image projection
 Modular design?
 Projected keyboard
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What’s key?
Social gaming
 Location sensitivity
 Pervasive feel
 Persistence
 Opt in/out
 Cheap, predictable data charges
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Challenges
Widespread standards adoption (OMA)
 Minimizing need to integrate operator by
operator
 Non-game uses for core technologies to
spur consumer adoption
 Alternative business models
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