Transcript Telepresence: Near-term

Telepresence for the
Teleworkplace:
Living-in versus visiting
Cyberspace…
Making Telepresence a Reality
… or what DV is really all about
30 April 1998
Gordon Bell
([email protected])
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Research
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http://www.research.microsoft.com/barc/gbell
Outline
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Nature of the Teleworkplace
Platforms and technology push… why now?
The teleworking dimensions
Telepresentations: a killer app
But does anyone want telework?
Cyberspace… our quest
The end…..
The 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure
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Telework = work + telepresence
… “being there while being here”
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Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office
 The teleworkplace is ideally just a “remote office” W/O
– Communication, computer, and network support!
– Team interactions for work! CSCW is a “rat hole”!
– Interaction at coffee, meeting rooms, … in offices
– Administrative support for phones, information
(especially paper) management, keeping track of
 Always on & always connected to intranet/intranet ...!
 Telepresentations & communication -- the “killer apps”
 Collaboration is desirable, hard, and may be possible.
Needs B/W & low latency. It’s on its very slow way.
 SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market
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Telecommuting versus time
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Teleworking CW 9/1/97
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15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk
42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies
(screening, worker expectations, liability, IP
protection, etc.
 Are telecommuters more productive?
– 30% yes
– 50% same
– 4% no
– 16% don’t know
 Are telecommuters more accessible?
– 13% yes
– 40% same
– 40% no
– 7% don’t know
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Telepresence for work: requirements
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Telepresence = space and time shifting
 Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office
 Limited space, bandwidth, administrative and
computer support infrastructure, AND interaction
 Need: run all office and professional apps, support
computing environment, and be always connected
 New app opportunities: telepresentations (e.g.
NetShow, Powerpoint conferencing);
 Web is the greatest library ever created
 Create “presence” for collaboration by apps sharing
(e.g. NetMeeting, Placeware)
 Administrative support including paper handling!
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 Short term bets: large disks (e.g 20GB), DVC
more displays,
videophones, cameras, scanners, bandwidth limits
Telework & telepresence:
a forcing function into several areas...
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Home Network
Network connection is always on
… and at high speed
Support (at reasonable cost) for all apps…
-- the teleworker = system admin
Office work… e.g. paperlessness, message mgm’t
“recording all we read, write, hear, and see”
-- the teleworker = admin. assistant aka secretary
Telepresence… attending meetings and lectures,
taking courses, etc. without travel
Collaboration on a work project without travel
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Why telepresence now?
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It’s the near-term platforms, stupid!
(multimedia is finally happening)
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Text & 2D graphics >> images, voice, & video
 The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything
 Disk sizes and cost c1998
– $50-100 / GB
– 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB MO R/W
 The videophone will emerge for distributed conferences
 Document, picture, and video capture and compression
– 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB
– 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book
– Plethora of … CAMERAS EVERYWHERE!
– More Screens. We need at least two!
 Voice and video compression*
– 250 hours / GB voice
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– Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB;
 Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places
Memex
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Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
/hr
200 K
/day (/4yr)
2 -10 M/G
/lifetime
60-300 G
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
43 K
3.6 M
0.5 M/G
40 M/G
15 G
1.2 T
stills w/voice @100KB
200 K
2 M/G
60 G
video-like 50Kb/s POTS
video 200Kb/s VHS-lite
22 M
90 M
.25 G/T
1 G/T
25 T
100 T
video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G
20 G/T
1P
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Storage and data-rate requirements for
common office data-types
Documents
page or fax
business card
snapshot
350 page book
image
100 K
5K
3M
25 M
Human data-types
read text, few pictures
speech text @120wpm
speech @1KBps
Video comp. 50KbPOTS
video comp. 200Kb VHS
video comp. 4.3Mb DVD
compressed
4K
500
100 K
1-2 M
/hr
200 K
43 K
3.6 M
22 M
90 M
1.8 G
#/GB
10K;250K
200K;2M
10,000
40;750
/day
2 -10 M
0.5 M
40 M
.25 G
1G
20 G
/lifetime
60-300 G
15 G
1.2 T
25 T
100 T
1P
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SOHO AKA
COMOHO
Teleworking
Environment
Guardian Angel:
intercom,
records what we
read, see, and
hear… protects
us from
ourselves and
others
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Libretto,
.5mm
Not shown:
ECG;
PCS; Pilot
GPS;
Compass;
altimeter
Libretto PS,
Ricoh Camera;
Swiss Army
Knife
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One of GB’s Teleworkplaces
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Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3#
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Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
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SOHO (small office, home office)
network computing environment
POTS
(legacy services)
IP Dial tone (Internet, phone,
videophone) >1.5 Mbps
NT Server for:
comm/network, POTS/IP
gateway, file, print, compute
LAN
PC
Phone
...
PC
Phone
...
NC*
Phone
*NC, NetPC,
Xterm,
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s
Telework &
communications space
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Mechanisms
(how)
Synchronous
The Space of
Telepresence
for work
ICQ, Internet phone & phone conf.
RealAudio & simple graphics
Workspace for remote program control
Whiteboard (groups)
...
Videophone
Remote Rover (Robot Videophone)
email
Formal presentations sans video
Asynchronous
...
Voice & Videomail
Video lectures & courses
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Telepresence: who and what
WHO
1:1 person-person
communication
What
view (troll) hallways,
“seeking interaction”
1:1 interview, status report,
etc.
1-6 videophone calls for
1:n-site broadcasting or
(design, problem solving,
Mbone narrowcasting
authoring)
distributed group. >2 - 5 - hold staff meetings with 1 or
more members
10 - 100
distributed
---attend classes
person-computer
formal meetings (lectures,
conferences, stockholder
computer management (no meetings, town halls,
persons)
etc..)
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n:m 2-site-site video
conference
Telemeeting clone
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Telework
clones…
being in
more
than one
place at
the same
time
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Animatron...
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Telepresence Mechanisms (for Work)
Synchronous
Internet phone &
phone conferencing
RealAudio &
Overhead graphics
Shared applications
Whiteboards
CU SeeMe on POTS…
IP Videophone
Mbone Video conferencing
Room Video conferencing
Asynchronous
voice mail…STT
email ... TTS
Home pages replace
bulletin boards, file
transport, and document
distribution
Schedule & “Notes”
Voice and Video “email”
Telepresentations
(meetings, presentations,
& courses)
Remote Rover
(Robot Videophone)
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Voice and Visual Alternatives (in
order of increasing B/W)
Voice*
 TTS (synthetic or
speaker driven)
 4 Kb-64 Kb codec
of real voice
 Stereo of real voice
 Stereo with sound
source
identification
 Projection into
arbitrary virtual
world environment
*variable speed
Visual AKA Video*
 Text avatar (simple… photo)
 Avatar with voice sync
 Avatar of real person
 Video codec based projection
– “Postage stamp” … POTS
– “Mailing label” … ISDN or 2x
POTS
– Compressed VHS (200 Kbps)
– MPEG 2 (1- 4 Mbps)
 Speaker tracking, 1-n cameras
 VR image of a large space
 3d images “holodeck”
 Animatron e.g. Barney
 Mobile Animatron
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*Meeting in real or virtual world
Telepresentations: The next or another
killer app?
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Tools for telepresentations and
telecollaboration
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Powerpoint: conference & record,
Precept: mbone multicasting
NetShow: On demand viewing of video
28.8 - 100 Kb
CuSeeMe: audio, video, whiteboard
NetMeeting: audio, 2 way video, chat,
whiteboard, program sharing
Placeware for large scale meetings,
presentations, and collaborations
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Telepresentations
“Being There (e.g. meeting, lecture, confererene)
Without Really Being There (or Then)”
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Presenter or audience need not be
physically present
Reach a wider audience
 “I have a schedule conflict.”
 Anybody with a web connection can
participate
Reduce costs
 No need to travel to attend or
participate in a presentation
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Telepresentation Features
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Essential
– High quality audio and Graphics aka
slides
 Important
– Some essence of the presenter even a few still images
 Non-Essential
– Video of the presenter
– Two-way communication
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Telepresentations will be a
well-defined app by 2001.
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ACM97 was the first telepresented
conference with Mbone multicast &
servers that host the conference cf.
http://www.research.microsoft.com/acm97
Bet: More people will view the conference
from Cyberspace than that attended it.
Big question: will telepresentation
technology AKA tele-learning affect
learning and education?
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But does anyone want telework?
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Problems: socio vs technical
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Isolation & loneliness
– need for communication/stimulation
– chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
– loss of group/teamwork skills
– danger of becoming “terminal”
interruptions & focus
lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
supervision and ability to have 1:1
unclear that many people want it…
they simply need the contact withDVC
people
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A People Model:
Does anyone want telepresence?
Spock
formal
(in writing)
Analyticals..
being right,
detailed
email
Drivers…
results oriented
broadcast
- push
megalomaniacs
Self-control
anal
retentives
informal
(verbal)
Amiables…
consensus
builders
Expressives...
want
recognition,
need contact
Managing
Interpersonal
Relationships
(MIR)
2D Model
--------------chat---------------Sally Field
spineless
wimps
Souter
psychotics
Evangelism
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Swaggert
Everything cyberizable will be in
Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy
of computers!
Continent
World
Body
Region/
Cars…
phys. nets
Intranet
Home…
Campus buildings
Fractal Cyberspace: a network
of … networks of … platforms
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“
By April 1, 2001
videophones will ship in
50% of the PCs
and be in use.
”
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray
1996 (one paper,
loser gets fed)
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Two, $1K Bets with
Nicholas Negroponte
on Internet Growth
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That by December 31, 2000 there will
be 1 billion users on the web.
(5:1 odds) That by December 31,
2001, there will be 1 billion users on
the web.
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Growth in users?
12000
10000
8000
World [email protected]%
6000
4000
Internet growth
extrapolated@98%
2000
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0
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Good News
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Bandwidth will come
Audio and video compression is
improving to live within POTS limit
Videophones will be built-into all
PCs within 5 years at 0 cost
Telepresentations are here for
“live” and “on demand” use
This will change education!
Telecollaboration tools work for
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simple apps…
Telework: Summary
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The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W.
Technology is coming, research lags in handling
– Storage of all text, audio, and useful video
– Videophones, cameras, netPCs, WebTV, etc.
– More pixels we require to increase “presence”
– Adequate audio… the “killer” component
A big part of telework is just office productivity
– Coexistence with computer, paper, telephone,
– Data-types require a multimedia database
– Computer and network management is a real
“time killer”
CSCW is a rathole. We don’t understand CW
– The killer apps are simple: telepresentations
and shared apps
Being connected all the time is essential
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“Therapy from long distance
debated”
- SJ Mercury 5 April 1998
http://www.sjmercury.com/breaking/headline1/056580.htm
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The End
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Bonus slides:
Gordon’s very own answers
to the 16 questions posed in
the DVC Brochure
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Will streaming video bring the Internet
to its knees?
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Depends on the data-rate.
Is it 28.8 Kbps?
Or > 4500 Kbps for DVD and HDTV-quality?
By definition, it won’t or can’t because
It won’t be deployed if the network can’t support it
Better question:
What forms will streaming video take over the
next five years for the corporate user?
What forms will streaming video take as a
function of time for the home internet user?
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What are the essential ingredients for
success in remote collaboration?
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The type of work… it has to be “coarse grain” I.e.
little interaction among the collaborators per unit
of collaboration and work output
Telepresentation-type collaboration does work
The application supporting it
Great audio
Were you able to collaborate in a single site?
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How much interoperability is really out
there?
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Not much…among vendors.
Microsoft has a solution to this problem and we
comply with the various ITU standards
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Which technology will win the
broadband access battle -- cable
modems or DSL products?
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I.e. the dumb or the blind?
Cable will lead in the short term because of the
inherent ease of doing it, its low cost, and the
possibility that users could simply buy their cable
modems and attach them.
Not a given because the transition to digital
channels will confuse things
But in the long term, service most likely has to be
Central Office based for reliability and scalability
and for symmetry.
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Why are desktop video conferencing
sales growing faster in the consumer
market than in business market?
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It would be surprising if videoconferencing sales
are growing faster.
Surely 2 way videophone is growing
Clearer need: the videophone
It is easy to do for videophone use
Lack of a great product that works
Lace of infrastructure on the net, including
firewalls
Audio isn’t good enough… I.e. acceptable
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How will Disney use the Internet to
distribute multimedia content?
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Slowly… look at their site with a young child
Games, cartoons, and stories
To engage the users into stories like DisneyLand
or DisneyWorld
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What does it cost to multicast video to
thousands of users from a single
stream?
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Do you have the bandwidth for one or more
channels? If so, the cost is nil.
Is it just for internal multicasting?
Do you want to send to the internet or just
receive?
All these require just doing it…
FYI: Multicasting using NetShow is built in to NT
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Which streaming media technology
places the least demand on your
network server?
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The Mbone standards… are just fine
Not using “on demand”
However, “on demand” is the most useful and
flexible, by far
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Can videoconferences be made
secure?
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Is this really a problem?
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How can the enterprise network be
used to transmit voice?
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Wait
Adequate and reliable LANs
Platforms that support voice are available
It really happens when you incorporate desktop IP
telephony
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What are the costs and logistics of
broadcasting live over the internet?
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Why would you want to?
You have to use the Mbone channels today or the
equivalent of extra-nets?
A more realistic scenario would be “on demand”
from your site. Anyone can do this!
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What is being done to simplify life for
multipoint users?
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Who he/she?
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How do you integrate audio and video
into your web pages?
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Just do it!
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With the emergence of IP telephony, is
regular POTS conferencing dead?
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Yes, but
It is going to take 3-5 years before IP telephony
becomes ubiquitous enough
It will probably build from a product/technology
like NetMeeting
Should ask:t what kind of environment or use?
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What are the best measures of
videoconferencing quality?
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The existing systems using dedicated links
Whether users can get work done
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Will video chat develop like keyboard
chat and generate millions of minutes
of usage for on line services?
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It already is. Go visit a Porno studio, however
this is really one way chat
Unclear how much n-way video chat will be used
Expect NetMeeting et al will be the enablers and
meetings could be the “killer app”
Don’t count out shared games as the enabler and
avenue for chat & collaboration
Some consumer research questions:
Do you want voice at all or text with avatars and
comic chat?
Or would you rather chat using just voice, voice
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and avatars, lip-synced images of yourself,
fps talking images?