Transcript History - Open Online Courses

History of Causal Analysis
Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.
One who knows and knows he knows; he is learned, follow him!
One who knows and knows not that he knows; he is asleep, wake him!
One who knows not and knows he knows not; he seeks to learn, teach him!
One who knows not and knows not that he knows not; he is a fool, shun him!
Old Persian Poem
Also attributed to Khalil ibn Ahmad al-Faraheedi
Imaginary Causes
Imaginary Causes
There is a Reason Why Events Occur
Eureka
How & Why
Describe how
it happens
Purging Causality from Science
“…The law of causality, I believe, is
a relic of bygone age, surviving only
because it is erroneously supposed to
do no harm ..."
Lord Russell
Purging Causality from Science
“… the laws of physics are all
symmetrical, going both ways, while
causal relations are unidirectional,
going from cause to effect ..."
Lord Russell
Purging Causality from Science
“… that co- relation must be the
consequence of the variations …
partly due to common causes ..."
Francis Galton
Purging Causality from Science
“Contingency and correlation - the
insufficiency of causation"
Disguised Causal Claims
Disguised Causal Claims
Revolt Starts
Economists
Structural
Modeling
Revolt Starts
Sociologists
Propensity
Scoring
Revolt Starts
Engineers
Function
Revolt Starts
Psychologists
Probabilistic
Contrast theory
Revolt Starts
Artificial
Intelligence
Causal Models
Terminology Exposion
A Uniform Approach
Return of Causality to Statistics
Applied Causality