Transcript Europeanisation and Secularisation

EUROPEANISATION
AND
SECULARISATION
WOUT ULTEE
RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN
PRESENTATION AT THE COLLOQUIUM OF THE
CENTRE FOR GLOBALISATION AND GOVERNANCE
UNIVERSITÄT HAMBURG, JANUARY 17, 2007
AS THE WEBSITE OF THE CGG SAYS:
GLOBALISATION AND GOVERNANCE ARE
CONTESTED CONCEPTS
BUT: CONCEPTS ARE UNIMPORTANT
PERTINENT ARE PROPOSITIONS
AND THE PROPOSITION THAT
GLOBALISATION WEAKENS EXISTING
FORMS OF GOVERNANCE
IS A WORTHWHILE RESEARCH
HYPOTHESIS
Although that hypothesis needs elaboration
and some findings speak against it
THE INITIAL QUESTION:
WHERE IS THE WORLD GOING?
THE ANSWER:
THE WORLD IS GLOBALISING!
THIS INITIAL DIAGNOSIS IS NOT BAD.
BUT:
GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?
HOW STRONG IS THE TREND?
AN UNCONDITIONAL TREND?!
HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?
PRODUCTION FACILITIES ARES BEING SHIFTED
FROM THE HYPERINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
TO WHICH COUNTRIES?
THE DUTCH CORPORATION PHILIPS IS SHIFTING
ITS LIGHTING DIVISION
NOT TO AFRICA BELOW THE SAHARA
NOR TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA
BUT TO EASTERN EUROPE
AND THIS SHORT SHIFT IS NOT EXCEPTIONAL
HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PLACE
WHERE GOODS ARE PRODUCED AND
GOODS ARE CONSUMED IS GETTING
LARGER
BUT THERE ARE LIMITS:
THE BORDERS OF THE
ENLARGED EUROPEAN UNION
HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PLACE
WHERE CAPITAL IS OWNED AND THE PLACE
WHERE IT IS EMPLOYED IS GETTING
LARGER
BUT:
DO NOT OVERDO THE DEVALUATION OF THE
BRITISH POUND AND THE THAI BAHT
EVEN GIVEN CONTEMPORARY WEAK
STANDARDS
CURRENCY TRADERS MAY HAVE
COMMITTED WHITE COLLAR CRIMES
HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?
THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PLACE WHERE
PEOPLE WERE BORN AND THE PLACE WHERE
THEY NOW WORK IS GETTING LARGER
BUT
THERE ARE LAWS MAKING LABOR MOBILITY
ILLEGAL, EVEN WITHIN THE ENLARGED
EUROPEAN UNION
U.S. CORPORATIONS ARE RENT-SEEKING ON
FOREIGN STATES BY PLEADING FOR LEGAL
ENTRY OF HIGHLY QUALIFIED LABOR
HOW STRONG A GLOBALISATION OF WHAT?
THE PART OF THE WORLD ABOUT WHICH
PEOPLE HAVE KNOWLEDGE IS GETTING
LARGER
BUT WESTERN TEENAGERS ARE USING THE
INTERNET TO CHAT WITH THEIR SCHOOL
FRIENDS
AND WESTERN ADULTS ARE GOING ON
HOLIDAY TO FAR-AWAY PLACES BECAUSE
THEY ARE CERTAIN OF SUN THERE
SUMMING UP
THE TREND TOWARDS
GLOBALISATION IS MORE OF A
TREND TOWARDS
EUROPEANISATION
AND WILL STOP AT THE BORDERS
OF THE ENLARGED EUROPEAN
UNION
IN EASTERN EUROPE THERE IS
CHEAP AND QUALIFIED LABOR
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALWAYS
ENDOWED WITH A WORK ETHIC
THE GLOBALISATION
PROPOSITION HAS BEEN TAKEN
TO PERTAIN TO AN
UNCONDITIONAL TREND
YET ITS SUPPOSED CAUSE HAS
BEEN STATED
ALL KINDS OF FORMAL BARRIERS
ARE BEING ELIMINATED
MARKETS ARE BECOMING MORE
FREE
GIVEN THIS CONDITION
FOR A TREND
THE DIAGNOSIS THAT THE
CONTEMPORARY WORLD IS
GLOBALISING
IS SO-SO
FIRST REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD AND
WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE MARKET
AFTER WORLD WAR 2 AND WITH
DECOLONISATION THE INDUSTRIAL
COUNTRIES ALLOWED FREE IMPORTS OF
RAW MATERIALS ONLY
SINCE 1975 THEY HAVE LOWERED TARIFFS
ON FINISHED GOODS
BUT THERE STILL IS NO WORLD WIDE FREE
TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
WHEREAS AGRICULTURE IS WORLD WIDE
THE MOST IMPORTANT SECTOR OF
EMPLOYMENT
SECOND REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD
IS NOT AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE
MARKET
AFTER WORLD WAR 2 AND WITH
DECOLONISATION THE INDUSTRIAL
COUNTRIES BECAME DEPENDENT ON OIL AND
THESE COUNTRIES HAVE TO IMPORT OIL
SINCE 1973 THE OPEC COUNTRIES HAVE
FORMED A CARTEL
FOSSILE ENERGY WILL REMAIN THE LINCHPIN
OF ANY INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY IN THE COMING
DECADES
THIRD REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD IS
NOT AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE
MARKET
THE CORPORATIONS DOMINATING CURRENT
HYPERINDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES DEPEND UPON
PATENTS FOR ALL KINDS OF INNOVATIONS
THESE PATENTS LAST SO LONG THAT THESE
CORPORATIONS HAVE BECOME QUASIMONOPOLIES
THE PERIOD COVERED BY PATENTS WILL NOT
BE GETTING SHORTER
AND PATENTS NOWADAYS ARE MORE OFTEN
ENFORCED
FOURTH REASON WHY THE WHOLE WORLD
IS NOT AND WILL NOT BECOME ONE FREE
MARKET
AND NOT EVEN THE INITIAL EUROPEAN
UNION WILL BECOME SO
THE COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD ARE MOVING
FROM AGRICULTURAL SOCIETIES BY WAY OF
INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES TO HYPERINDUSTRIAL
OR SERVICES SOCIETIES
AND EVEN AND PARTICULARLY IN SERVICES
SOCIETIES LANGUAGE DIFFERENCES ARE
STRONG BARRIERS AGAINST LABOR AND
HOUSEHOLD MOBILITY
EFFECTS OF GLOBALISATION
AND EUROPEANISATION ON
GOVERNANCE
– GOVERNANCE OF WHAT?
THE DEBATE CENTERS ON
THE ABILITIES OF CURRENT
STATES TO LESSEN INCOME
INEQUALITIES
BEFORE PLAYING OFF
THE THESIS THAT FREE
MARKETS BENEFIT EVERYONE
AGAINST THE THESIS THAT
FREE MARKETS INCREASE
INEQUALITIES
IT IS WISE TO DETERMINE WHAT
EXACTLY THESE THESES SAY
AND WHAT EARLIER THESES
SAID
THE THESIS THAT FREE
MARKETS BENEFIT
EVERYONE DOES NOT
PREDICT SMALLER
INEQUALITIES
SINCE THE RICH MAY
BENEFIT MORE THAN
THE REST
THE DEBATE BETWEEN
THE PRO-GLOBALISTS
AND THE ANTIGLOBALISTS
IS A REPRISE OF THE
DEBATE AROUND 1900
WITHIN THE GERMAN
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC
PARTY ON THE EFFECTS
OF PERSISTING
CAPITALIST
PRODUCTION RELATIONS
BERNSTEIN 1899
THE SHIFT FROM UNSKILLED TO SKILLED AND HIGHLY
SKILLED WORK MAKES FOR HIGHER WAGES IN
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
LUXEMBURG 1912
WAGES ARE RISING BUT NOT FOR THAT REASON,
HIGHER WAGES ARE PAID OUT OT PROFITS MADE IN
COLONIES, WHERE WAGES ARE GOING DOWN
REVISIONIST RETORT
ORTHODOX MARXISTS THINK THAT MARKETS ONLY
CAN BECOME LARGER BY COLONIALISM
RISING STANDARDS OF LIVING IN A COUNTRY AMOUNT
TO AN INTERNAL ENLARGEMENT OF MARKETS
STERNBERG 1926
PROFITS FROM BRITISH COLONIES ARE NOT LARGE
ENOUGH TO ACCOUNT FOR WAGE RISES IN BRITAIN
GERMANY HAS HARDLY ANY COLONIES AND WAGES
HAVE BEEN RISING THERE TOO
WALLERSTEIN 1973
COLONIALISM MAY HAVE COLLAPSED BUT
ECONOMIC DEPENDENCIES STILL ARE IN PLACE
AND ABSOLUTE POVERTY RISES IN THE THIRD
WORLD
KLEIN 2000
NOW INCOME INEQUALITIES ARE RISING IN THE
FIRST WORLD TOO
HOW USEFUL IS
EMPIRICAL
RESEARCH GIVEN
THIS THEORETICAL
QUAGMIRE?
IT IS WISE TO DEVISE
HYPOTHESES ABOUT
EFFECTS OF
SPECIFIC FORMS OF
GOVERNANCE
ON SPECIFIC FORMS
OF INCOME
INEQUALITY
BUT FIRST FIREBAUGH’S PARADOX
EVEN IF INCOME INEQUALITIES AS
MEASURED BY GINI’S AND INCOME SHARES
IN EVERY COUNTRY OF THE WORLD IS
RISING
IT STILL MAY BE THE CASE THAT WORLD
INCOME INEQUALITY DROPS
WITH WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY
DETERMINED IN THE SAME WAY BUT BY
TAKING WORLD POPULATION RATHER THAN
COUNTRY POPULATIONS AS THE UNIT OF
ANALYSIS
ACCORDING TO FIREBAUGH
THIS POSSIBILITY RIGHT NOW IS A FACT
WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY
EQUALS
INEQUALITY WITHIN COUNTRIES
PLUS
INEQUALITY BETWEEN COUNTRIES
AND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD POPULOUS CHINA
AND INDIA WITH BELOW WORLD AVERAGE INCOME
HAVE HAD A STRONGER RISE IN AVERAGE INCOME
MY OWN HYPOTHESIS
THIS PARADOX RIGHT NOW IS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE ENLARGED
EUROPEAN UNION
EUROSTAT HAS BEEN MISLEADING
ABOUT THIS POSSIBLE PARADOX
EUROPEAN UNION INCOME INEQUALITY IS NOT
(A WEIGHTED BY POPULATION) AVERAGE OF
GINI’S FOR ALL EU-COUNTRIES
EUROPEAN
UNION
INCOME
INEQUALITY
IS NOT AN
AVERAGE OF
INCOME
QUINTILE
SHARE
RATIO’S FOR
EACH
MEMBER
STATE OF THE
EUROPEAN
UNION
HERE IS
A COMPARATIVE RESEARCH PROJECT
TO BE FUNDED WITH EU MONEY
OR ESF MONEY
FIRST SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS
IF IN SOME COUNTRY LEGAL
MINIMUM WAGES ARE LOWER
THAN IN ANOTHER COUNTRY
UPON ECONOMIC UNIFICATION
IN THE COUNTRY WITH THE
HIGHEST LEGAL MINIMUM WAGES
MINIMUM WAGES WILL BE GOING
DOWN
SECOND SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS
IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION THERE WILL BE A
CONVERGENCE OF SOCIAL SECURITY
SCHEMES TOWARDS A LOW POINT
THIS CONVERGENCE TAKES A FORM
RESEMBLING THE DEVALUATION OF
CURRENCIES IN THE 1930S
IF ONE COUNTRY LOWERS SOCIAL
SECURITY BENEFITS OTHER
COUNTRIES WILL FOLLOW
WITH THE BEGINNER IN THE END
LOWERING BENEFITS AGAIN
THE UNITED KINDGOM STARTED A BEGGAR-MYNEIGHBOUR ROUND UNDER THATCHER
AND THE NETHERLANDS FOLLOWED SUIT UNDER
LUBBERS
BECAUSE FRANCE AND GERMANY DID NOT JOIN IN
DUTCH UNEMPLOYMENT GOT FROM A EUROPEAN
HIGH TO A EUROPEAN LOW
KORPI & PALME SHOWED THAT IN PERIODS OF
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE,
SOCIAL SECURITY CUTS WERE LOWER
THIRD SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS
IN COUNTRIES DIFFERING IN THE
EXTENT TO WHICH INDIVIDUAL INCOME
TAXES ARE PROGRESSIVE
UPON ECONOMIC UNIFICATION
THE COUNTRY WITH THE HIGHEST
PROGRESSION
LOWERS TAXES FOR THE INDIVIDUALS
WITH THE HIGHEST INCOMES
FOURTH SPECIFIC HYPOTHESIS
IF IN SOME COUNTRY CORPORATE TAXES ARE
LOWER THAN IN ANOTHER COUNTRY
UPON ECONOMIC UNIFICATION
IN THE COUNTRY WITH THE HIGHEST
CORPORATE TAXES
CORPORATE TAXES WILL BE GOING DOWN
HEILBRONER
SOCIETIES HAVE THREE INSTITUTIONS TO
COORDINATE HUMAN ACTION
MARKETS
STATES
COMMUNITIES
BLOSSFELD – MILLS HYPOTHESIS ABOUT THE
RELATION BETWEEN MARKETS AND
COMMUNITIES
GLOBALISATION MAKES IN HYPERINDUSTRIAL
STATES FOR JOB PRECARITY
AND JOB PRECARITY MAKES FOR
COHABITION OR MARRIAGE AT A LATER AGE
FOR COHABITATION RATHER THAN MARRIAGE
AND FOR POSTPONEMENT OF CHILD BIRTH
AND A SMALLER NUMBER OF CHILDREN
MY ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS
TAKES CHANGES IN NUCLEAR
FAMILY FORMATION
AS INFLUENCED TOO AND
MORE STRONGLY
BY THE DECLINE OF
RELIGIOUS COMMUNITIES IN
HYPERINDUSTRIAL STATES
THE MORE SECULARIZATION IN HYPERINDUSTRIAL
SOCIETIES
THE MORE OPPOSITE-SEX BONDING WILL TAKE THE
FORM OF COHABITATION RATHER THAN MARRIAGE
NOT ONLY AMONG IRRELIGIOUS PERSONS
BUT ALSO AMONG CHURCH MEMBERS AND CHURCH
VISITORS
WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS FOR CHILD-BEARING
ADDITIONALLY, THE MORE SAME-SEX BONDING WILL
TAKE PLACE
AND THE MORE LIKELY SAME-SEX MARRIAGES WILL
BE ALLOWED
BUT SECULARIZATION HAS MORE
EFFECTS
SINCE GALLIE & PAUGAM
JOB PRECARITY IS HAVING A
TEMPORARY CONTRACT OR
WORKING PART-TIME
YET IS SOME COUNTRIES
PERSONS IN PART-TIME JOBS HAVE
FIXED CONTRACTS
WITH PROTECTION EQUAL TO FULLTIME WORKING PERSONS
IF THE VARIOUS CHRISTIAN RELIGIONS OF
THE WEST HELD THAT A MAN SHOULD
PROVIDE MONEY FOR HIS FAMILY AND A
WOMAN SHOULD KEEP THE HOUSE AND
TAKE CARE OF THE CHILDREN
THEN SECULARISATION EMBODIES AN
EQULAITY NORM
MAKING THAT WOMEN ENTER THE LABOR
FORCE
NOT NECESSARILY FOR FULL-TIME JOBS
AND FOR MEN WITH PART-TIME JOBS TO
SHARE WITH THEIR PARTNER THE CARE
OF CHILDREN
SO MY HYPOTHESIS IS THAT WORKING
PART-TIME FOR WOMEN IS AN EARLY
CONSEQUENCE OF SECULARISATION
AND WORKING PART-TIME FOR MEN A
LATER CONSEQUENCE OF
SECULARISATION
THE RISE OF PART-TIME JOBS IN
HYPERINDUSTRIAL STATES DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH PRECARITY
AND GLOBALISATION
TO ARRIVE AT A RICHER ANSWER TO
THE QUESTION WHERE EUROPE IS
GOING
NOT ONLY MORE BONDING BETWEEN
SOCIAL ECONOMISTS AND POLITICAL
SOCIOLOGISTS
BUT ALSO BETWEEN THESE SOCIAL
SCIENTISTS
AND SOCIOLOGISTS OF RELIGION
I HAVE POSTED THIS PRESENTATION ON MY WEB SITE
TYPE IN GOOGLE THE TWO WORDS
WOUT ULTEE
THE FIRST HIT IS MY WEB SITE
GO TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS
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