Transcript TEPPC Meeting November 2-3, 2011 San Diego, CA

Grid Tracker:
A web-based tool to analyze
historic transmission flows
over paths in the Western
Interconnection
Thomas Carr
Western Interstate Energy Board
ColumbiaGrid Planning Meeting
August 1, 2013
Agenda
1. Purpose and background of Grid Tracker
2. About Grid Tracker
1.
2.
3.
Database information
Types of analysis
User assistance mechanisms
3. Interesting Findings
2
Purpose and Background of
Grid Tracker
3
• Purpose: Develop an internet-based tool that allows users
to understand historical use of the transmission grid and
identify opportunities to improve grid efficiency.
4
Functions and Uses of Grid Tracker
• Search and analyze trends in power flow, Available Transfer Capacity
(ATC), and schedules for transmission paths in the Western
Interconnection, and display results in a graphical format
• Incorporate data on hydro flow and renewable energy zones to analyze
correlations between resources and grid utilization
• Identify where there is under-utilized transmission capacity
• Inform decisions on locating new generation without new lines
• Explore whether the current open access transmission system leads to
an efficient use of the grid
5
Background on the Project
• April 4, 2012 – SPSC approved project funding ($50K) at San Diego meeting
• Dec. 5, 2012 – RFP issued
• Feb. 2013 – SPSC’s Evaluation Committee selected Atkins North America, Inc.
as contractor to build the tool from pool of 7 bidders
• Dean Perry hired for technical support to WIEB
• Feb. to March – 8 meetings with Atkins, WIEB staff, Dean Perry, and WECC staff
to build Grid Tracker prototype
• April 4 – Pre-meeting webinar for Grid Tracker
• April 10 – Demonstration at SPSC/CREPC meeting in Boise; SPSC approved of
$25K for public outreach and education
• June 14 – Final product delivered; Grid Tracker fully deployed
• August – September – Public outreach and education
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About Grid Tracker
7
Database Information Within Grid Tracker
• WECC Transmission Paths:
• All available historical Western Electricity Coordinating
Council (WECC) Path power flow, Operating Transfer Capacity
(OTC), schedule and ATC data from 1999-2010
• Intend to update over time with new data years for WECC
Path power flow and OTC data
• Hydro Power:
• Historical Columbia River hydro discharge data at The Dalles,
Oregon
•
• Representative of hydro generation potential in the
Northwest Energy:
Renewable
• Power generation data from a variety of proxy renewable energy plants (wind, solar,
biomass, and geothermal)
• Based on WECC’s Transmission Expansion Planning Policy Committee (TEPPC) 2022
Common Case
• Proxy plants are located within the Western Governors’ Association and U.S. DOE’s
Western Renewable Energy Zone Initiative Hubs
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Interesting Findings
shows recent
analyses, give
interpretations of
results, and show
you how to build the
analysis.
Basic Analysis
allows you to select
from a suite of
standard analyses.
Advanced Analysis
Allows you to create
complex custom
analyses.
Web-based
You can open and run
the Grid Tracker in all
of the major web
browsers.
Map-based: The map
presents the various
power datasets and
allows you to select
which data you’d like
to analyze
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Point and Click Data Access
1. Click on any Path,
Hydro discharge
point, or WREZ Hub
on the map.
2. Select a time series
from the pop-up.
3. Click chart to view
the data.
4. Download the data
for analysis in excel.
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The Data Analysis Tree
• Allows for building custom
analyses in the Advanced
Analysis Tab.
• Incorporates data from the
various databases as input
nodes in a link-node network.
• Adds nodes from the tool box
to conduct analysis on the data
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Types of Analysis
Basic Time Series Analysis
• Statistics (Mean, Min, Max, 90th/95th/99th Percentile, St. Dev)
• Hourly Statistics – statistic for each hour of the day
• Aggregating Time Series (hourly, daily, seasonal, hydro year)
Grid Capacity Analysis
• Calculation of maximum FIRM and NonFIRM ATC
• Calculation of Unused/Unscheduled Capacity
• Combining multiple Paths in series or in parallel
Statistical Analysis
• Probability curves
• Correlation
Simulation
• Simulates proxy plant power generation with adequate transmission capacity
• Allows the user to adjust the output of the proxy power plant
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User assistance mechanisms
• Pop-ups to explain terms and particular functions
• Warnings if an analysis cannot be done because there are gaps in the
data
• Step-by-step instructions on how the interesting findings case study
results were created
• Allows the user to upload additional data for analysis
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Interesting Findings
14
Northwest hydro in comparison to Montana power flow
• Using multiple years of data, there is a -0.57 Pearson correlation
coefficient between the two daily time series, indicating a strong
inverse correlation.
Columbia River discharge vs. Path 8 (Montana to Northwest) power flow
15
Moving power from Arizona to California
• The clear bottleneck in transmitting power to California is
Path 49 (east of the Colorado River), which has significantly
less unused transmission capacity than Path 46 (west of
the Colorado River).
• Unused transmission capacity is either the calculated
unused/unscheduled capacity or the calculated maximum
of FIRM and NonFIRM ATC.
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Moving power from Arizona to California
Path 49 (east of Colorado River) unused transmission capacity
Path 46 (west of Colorado River) unused transmission capacity
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Moving power from Arizona to California
• 95% of the time, the level of unused transmission capacity
stays fairly constant at approximately 200-250 megawatts
(MW) the entire day. The only exception is the last hour in
the day, 11 pm – midnight, when the value drops to
approximately 120 MW.
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Moving power from Arizona to California
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, minimum hourly
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, average hourly
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, maximum hourly
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, 95th percentile
19
Sizing a solar energy project
• 83% of the time in the analysis year (2008), there is
adequate transmission capacity for 360 MW from a415
MW proxy plant in Western Arizona to serve the California
market via Paths 46 and 49 ; the remaining 17% of the
time, there may or may not be adequate transmission
capacity.
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Sizing a solar energy project
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity probability curve
AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant power generation probability curve
83% of the time in the
analysis year, there is
adequate transmission
capacity for 360 MW from
the proxy plant.
21
Sizing a solar energy project
• The statistics for the proxy plant generation in comparison
to the statistics for the Path 46/49 unused transmission
capacity indicate transmission capacity sufficiency.
22
Sizing a solar energy project
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, minimum hourly
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, average hourly
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, maximum hourly
Paths 46/49 unused transmission capacity, 95th percentile
AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, minimum hourly
AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, average hourly
AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, maximum hourly
AZ_WE Hub proxy solar plant generation, 95th percentile
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Sizing a solar energy project
• The power generation and transmission simulator, which
simulates the correlation between power generation and
transmission on an hourly basis, shows that at the proxy
plant’s current size (415 MW), there is adequate
transmission capacity for 97% of the plant’s generation in
the analysis year. If the plant’s capacity is increased to
6,500 MW, there is adequate transmission capacity for 15%
of the plant’s generation in the analysis year.
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Sizing a solar energy project
% Plant generation transmitted vs. plant capacity
As the plant capacity increases, adequate
transmission capacity decreases. If the plant’s
capacity is increased to 6,500 MW, there is
adequate transmission capacity for 15% of the
plant’s generation in the analysis year.
At the proxy plant’s current
size (415 MW), there is
adequate transmission
capacity for 97% of the
plant’s generation in the
analysis year.
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Contact Information
Grid Tracker website: www.wiebgridtracker.com
Please send questions/comments to:
[email protected]
• Tom Carr, WIEB
• [email protected]
• (303) 573-8910 x3
• Suzanne Leta Liou, Atkins
• [email protected]
• (503) 205-3751
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