Transcript AP Statistics - Greater Atlanta Christian Schools

AP Statistics
Chapter 5
Section 3
Chance
• Toss coin 10 times. What is the likelihood of a run of 3
or more consecutive heads or tails?
• A couple plans to have children until they have a girl or
until they have 4 children, whichever comes first. What
are the chances that they will have a girl among their
children?
• An airline knows from past experience that a certain % of
customers who have purchased tickets will not show up
to board the airplane. If the airline “overbooks” a
particular flight, what are the chances that the airline will
encounter more ticketed passengers than they have
seats for?
Look into the future…
Start with a model that , in some fashion,
reflects the truth about the experiment,
and then develop a procedure for imitating
– or simulating – a number of repetitions of
the experiment.
REALLY GOOD FOR AP EXAM!
What is the probability that a
couple will have a girl among their
first four children?
1 – girl
2 – boy
G, G, G, G
B, B, B, G
G, B, G, G
B, G, G, G
B, G, B, B
G, B, G, G
6/6 times in this simulation girl children
were in the first four children. 100%
Simulation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
State the problem or describe the experiment. What
is the likelihood of having a girl child in the first 4
children in a family?
State the assumptions.
~50% chance male, 50% female
~The genders of consecutive children in the same
family are independent events
Assign digits to represent the outcomes.
1 – girl, 2 – boy
Simulate many repetitions.
State your conclusions.
6/6 or 100% of the time at least one female child was
born within the first four children.
Randomly choose a person from…
A group of which 50% are employed, 20%
are unemployed, and 30% are not in the
labor force.
Assumptions: Each group is independent of
the other groups. (emp., unemp., not in l.f.)
Label: 0,1,2,3,4 represent employed
5, 6 represent unemployed
7,8,9 represent not in the
work force
My sample would be of 10 randomly
selected people: 5 employed & 1
unemployed & 4 not in the labor force.
Type in FREETHRO
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