Transcript Presentation1x

Labour Market Change and the
Health, Safety and Well-being
of Workers
Paula Gough
17th September 2015
Research Questions
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How has the likelihood of experiencing a workrelated injury or illness changed over the period
2001 to 2012?
What factors account for the injury & illness risk?
Important because 47, 000 workers injured per year
and 48,000 workers suffer work related illness
Cost for workers, employers, state, economy (eg.
2013 occup injury benefits expenditure € 14.5M)
Context
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2001 to 2012 encompasses boom and crisis.
Remarkable changes in sectoral composition.
Significant changes in terms of gender, nationality
and age composition in workforce
Changes in working time, security, etc.
All likely to have an influence on work-related injury
and illness.
Measures
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Occupational injuries –QNHS annual module collected by the
CSO.
Injury: asks if respondent had incurred any injuries at work
(excluding commuting) over the previous year.
Illness: asked whether respondent had suffered from any
physical or mental health problems that were caused or made
worse by their work.
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Analysis include any injury including no absence.
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Fatalities based on HSA statistics 2004-2013.
Trends over time
When was risk greatest?
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Injury Risk(%)
Boom 01-07
Illness Risk (%)
Recession 08-12
Work Accidents & the Business Cycle:
shouldn’t recession be worse for H&S?
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Insecurity strongly linked to poor psychological health
(stress/anxiety).
Cut backs in training.
Employees less able to resist intensification/ pressure
However international evidence that workplace
accidents rates are pro-cyclical (US; UK).
Why could boom be bad for worker
health and safety?
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Increased work intensity to meet higher demand:
overtime, longer hours, working at greater speed.
Less monitoring and supervision in period of
expansion.
Influx of inexperienced recruits.
Workers more reluctant to report accidents or to take
time off due to illness during periods of high
unemployment.
Injury and illness: who is most at risk?
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Men
Younger workers
New recruits
Those working variable work hours
Night workers and shift workers
Long hours – higher risk but this is due to greater
exposure
Per hour those working less than 20hrs a week
Occupational Injury
Occupational Injury Gender
Occupational Illness
Occupational illness Gender
Predicted Probabilities of Injury
(modelled) by Age Group
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
15-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Odds Ratio of Injury Risk: Job
characteristics
Hours ref:
Schedule
<30hrs
Tenure*
ref: >5yrs
0.5
1
1.5
2.5
< 6 months
6-12 months
13 months-2yrs
3-5yrs
Hours vary
Hrs 30-39
Hrs 40-49
Hrs 50plus
Shift work
Night work
Self-employed
Analysis of QNHS modules for years 2001 to 2012
Tenure figures adjusted to create annualised rate.
Estimates from models controlling for factors in figure 2
3.5
4.5
Injury risk by weekly work hours:
Unadjusted and Full-time Equivalent
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Variable hours 1 to 9 hours 10 to 19 hours 20-29 hours
Unadjusted
30-39 hours
FTE
40-49 hours
Over 50 hours
Which sectors most at risk of injury?
Compared to service sector .....
2.5
Odds ratio
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Note: model also controls for tenure, hours, employment status, shift work, night
work. Controlling working conditions reduces risk.
Injury risk negatively related to
inspection rate
.035
Injury probability
.030
.025
.020
.015
.010
.005
.000
0
2
4
6
8
Inspection rate per 1,000 workers
10
12
Policy Implications
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Recovery period - likely to be an increase in injury
rates without countervailing actions.
Inspection rates are positively associated with lower
levels of injury (and ill health). The inspection rate has
fallen since 2009, potential negative consequences.
Importance of training and monitoring new recruits.
Inform workers and employers of risks associated with
long hours, shift hours and variable working.
Thank you