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Nelson, Peter B. (2002) 'Perceptions of Restructuring in the Rural West: Insights from the "Cultural Turn"', Society & Natural Resources, 15:10, 903–921 Dawn Marie Gaid ECON 439/539 February 2, 2009 Outline • • • • • • Introduction Primary question Method of analysis Data source Results Policy implications Introduction “Recognizing the central place of human-land relationships in both the economic and cultural changes taking place in the West is critical to understanding the rising atmosphere of discontent among many of the region’s residents” (Nelson, 2002:907). Primary question Are people’s opinions and perceptions of recent land use changes in the nonmetropolitan American West (“New West”) influenced by economic and cultural logic simultaneously? Data source • Questionnaire Survey – conducted using the Salant and Dillman protocol • Coded responses and open-ended questions – used to access resident perceptions and positions on community restructuring • Condensation points – Current land use changes used as symbols of restructuring around which to construct more targeted questions and coherent response; provide a more concrete referent; the term ‘restructuring’ was too abstract. • Response rate – 43% ▫ allows for a 95% confidence level and a ±5% confidence interval Data selection • Population – nonmetropolitan communities experiencing net migration rates higher than the national average • Economics – cluster analysis was used to group counties based on similar economic structures ▫ 4 case-study communities were then selected to represent different structural types • Residents – stratified random sample of 1200 ▫ 300 in each community equally divided between new migrants and long-time residents Method of analysis • Analysis relies upon the coded responses only • Chi-Square statistics – used to determine if there is a difference between supporters and opponents on condensation point (a specific land use change) • Logistic regression – models use survey data coded into dummy variables to predict probability of support or opposition Support/opposition (support=1, opposition=0) is a function of perceived economic and cultural impacts, or Support = f(perceived economic impacts; perceived cultural impacts) Method of analysis • Three different models (panels) were constructed: 1. considering only individual-level perceptions 2. considering only community-level perceptions, 3. combining both individual and community level perceptions • Within each panel of Table 4, two separate sets of models are presented. ▫ Model 1 reports regression coefficients when all variables are forced into the model simultaneously, but considerable colinearity was evident in these results. ▫ Model 2 presents more restrained results constructed using Wald’s stepwise method for variable selection. The variables are listed in the order in which they entered the stepwise model. Results The chi-square statistics are all significant at the .01 level, demonstrating how both economic and cultural measures differentiate supporters from opponents at the individual level. Results In the Model 1 panels not all of the signs are in the expected directions, and the unique effects of certain variables are uncertain. All of the variables with significance levels less than .1 are eliminated in the stepwise model. In the stepwise Model 2, combined panel: • People who feel restructuring will negatively impact their recreational activities, jobs, community life, and environmental stewardship are all more likely to oppose these changes when controlling for fluctuations in other variables. • Low income respondent’s are also more likely to oppose recent changes Therefore, both cultural and economic logic contribute to an understanding or support/opposition for recent changes. Note: Newcomer and long-time resident status was not a significant determinant of support or opposition, contrary to conventional wisdom. Policy Implications • In stepwise estimations of the logistic models (Model 2), low income residents were consistently more likely to oppose recent events on both community and individual levels. ▫ This opposition suggests low-income residents are more marginalized (or at least perceive their positions are more disrupted) in the wake of restructuring ▫ This may indicate a lack of adequate public services to aid lowincome residents with coping with contemporary forces of change. • Therefore, there are service provision implications that require further investigations, since the overall goal of growth and development is to enhance the well-being of all rural residents “Fusing economic and cultural dimensions into a single analysis deepens our understanding of these differential perceptions and provides groundwork for better dealing with contemporary processes of restructuring on the ground” (Nelson, 2002:919).