Transcript JDEMweb - Analytica Wiki

Joint Dynamic Engagement
Model JDEM
14 August 2008
Henry Neimeier
Joint Dynamic Engagement Model
JDEM
• Calculate the military impact of OWS options
– Loss Exchange ratio
– Casualties
– Time to objective
• Real time execution on a PC with free Analytica
player
• Efficient frontier order of alternative funding
– When alternative life cycle cost module developed
JNO Dynamic Engagement Model (JDEM)
Player Interface
• Buttons provide
access to the model
for users that have
downloaded the free
Analytica player from
www.lumina.com
• Green: user Inputs
• Orange: MOE
outputs
• Red: intermediate
outputs
• Blue: Detail Model
– Grouped in
module sections
Model Details
(Module Influence
Diagram & Module
Summary)
Target
Movement
Weapons
Comm Net
ISR
Kill Thread
Delay
Portfolio
Air Layer
Force
Drawdown
Radar Plots
Terrain
indicies
Overview
Weather
functions
Portfolio: Selects scenario options, calculates
TLE, and sets uncertain input variable distributions.
Target Movement: Calculates target escape probability
from target movement statistics
Weapons: Assigns weapons to target classes to maximize effective kills per
sortie corrected for target location error TLE, survivable throughput, &
escape probability. Calculates execute time
Comm Net: Calculate path delay, path survival probability, and
survivable throughput for specified network parameters and threat level
Kill Thread Delay: Set thread task, sense, fuse, plan, execute times.
Compare total time to enemy response time to determine targets at risk.
ISR: Assigns ISR platforms to scenario, calculates revisit time, &
probability of target classification
Terrain Weather: Calculates ISR coverage multiplier to correct for scenario
weather and terrain masking.
Radar Plots: Displays multi dimensional outputs in radar plot format
Force Drawdown
Modified Lanchester Equation
Blue Remain
Remaining
Comparison
Initial Blue
Force
Initial Red
Force
Blue Force
Engagement
Efficiency
Force Ratio
Blue
Engagements/Time
Step
Support
Traffic ER*
Red Force
Targets @
Risk
Select
Coverage
Red Targets
IDed
Pid
Red
kills/Time
Step
ER
Select
Sensor
Processing
Pclassify
Enemy
losses
Relative Red
ISR
Effectiveness
Pk avg
Relative Weapon
Effectiveness
Time Red
Ineffective
Red Remain
Friendly
Casualties
Loss
Exchange
Ratio
Friendly
Losses
Communication Network
Baseline
Terminal
Access
Link
Probability
Expected
Links to
Terminal
Select Threat
Level
Link Survival
Nodes
Traffic Extent
Power
Expected
Terrestrial
Links
Path Links
Path Survival
W Reroute
Node Degree
CA
Path Survival
Probability
Path Delay
Path Survival
Support
Traffic * ER
Firepower
Support
Traffic ER*
CS
Select Link
Upgrade
Link Delay
Service Time
Priority
Proportion
Tries
Util Cor
Overhead*
Link
Throughput
Setup
Proportion
Utilization
Baulking
Utilization
Survivable
Throughput
All Options
Kill Thread Delay
Task ISR
Select
Sensor
Processing
Sense
Enemy
Response
Time
Task Time
Distribution
Target Class
Wt
Select Threat
Level
Wtg Avg
Targets @
Risk
Targets @
Risk
Select Link
Upgrade
Select
Coverage
Processing
Fuse &
Integrate
Task Time
Plan &
Deconflict
Total Task
Time
Remaining
Time
Total Task Time
Distribution
Remaining Time
Distribution
Path Delay
Comm Delay
Execute
Priority
Execute
Execute
Time
Execute
Uncertainty
STS Delay
Revisit
Targets At
Risk
ISR
ISR Platform
Select
Cumulative
Coverage
ISR
Parameters
Cover
Instantaneous
AOI
Select ISR
Path
Cover Hourly
Platform
Coverage*
Revisit
Cover Time
Time Cover
Correlation
Pclassify
Detection
pcd
Target Size
cyc
Classification
GSD req
Sensor
Resolution
Geoeye
Effective
Speed
Geoeye
Revisit
Gsd
Geoeye
Revisit
Pc
GeoEye
Revisit Hours
GSD Select
Geoeye
Range
World
Geoeye
Coverage
Geoeye Dwell
Geoeye AOI
Hourly
Coverage
AOI
Instantaneou
s Coverage
Weapons
TLE*
Probability
Update
Escape
Survivable
Throughput
Pk
Max
Expected
Kills
Expected
Kills Per
Sortie
Expected
Kills
Expected
kills TacTom
Pid
GPS
Kills Per
Sortie
PKc
Targets @
Risk
Weapon
Assigned
Pk avg
Potential
Platforms
Target Class
Wt
All Options
tot
Range Band
Proportion
Platform
Speed
PKcor
CAP Direct
Speed
Loadout
Fastest
Platform
Baseline
Tactom
Proportion
CAP
Execute
Time
Dist
Type
Standoff Or
Cap
Range Band
Distance
Cost
Terrain Weather
pv
ISR
Parameters
Pcflos
Altitude
Pclear
Terrain Mask
*
Coverage *
average
Terrain mask
by ISR
Platform
Slected
Platforms
Pclear
Average
Scenario
Terrain Mask
Average
Scenario P
clear
pp
Target Range
ISR Platform
Select
Terrain
Proportion
count Ter
Mask
Select ISR
Path
Platform
Coverage*
count Pclear
Mask
MCO2 Example Results
Proportion Of Force Remaining
Red
Low
Intensity
High
Intensity
Blue
MCO2 Baseline & All Options Performance Versus
Threat Level
Peace
Baseline
All
Low Intensity
High Intensity
MOE Dimension Definitions
Peace Low High
@R-% targets at risk – sufficient time to attack
BR -% Blue force Remaining when red ineffective
TI-Days till red force ineffective
PK-% average kill probability including escape
probability and survivable throughput
PKc –% PK corrected for classification probability
and targets at risk
PS-% communications Path Survival probability
TH-% Throughput of path
ST-% Survivable Throughput (PS*TH)
DL-communication path delay (% of minute)
SU*-% multiplier of Exchange Ratio for
support traffic capability
TLE*-% multiplier of PK for degrade of Target
Location Error for GPS missiles
Note: Values > 100% are truncated at 100%
Base
All
Scenario Versus Options Baseline (b), All (a)
(Average Kill Probability %, Low Intensity)
Baseline
All
MCO1a73
MCO1b41
MCO2a84
MCO2b35
MCO3a72
MCO3b37
GWOTb69
GWOTa86
AFGAHNb59
AFGAHNa80