Transcript Advanced Probability

Advanced Probability –
The Story of the Chevalier
The Chevalier de Mere
The Chevalier de Mere bet gamblers even
money that he could roll at least one 6 in four
rolls on a standard die.
 He calculated his probability of winning was
4/6 – was he right?

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Roll a die four times – keep track of rolling at least
one 6.
Repeat this experiment multiple times – then
calculate the probability of the Chevalier winning
The Chevalier de Mere (game II)

When gamblers caught on to his scheme the
Chevalier changed his tune – now he bet he
could roll two dice and roll at least a double
6 in 24 rolls.
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Try the experiment – does the Chevalier win?
Calculate the probability of a win
Find how much money he could expect to win
or loose after 100 games (if each game he bet
$1)