Transcript Petroleum Reserves and Resources Management

Alternative Energy Sources
Bill Pyke
Hilbre Consulting Limited
October 2012
Delivered to:
Nuclear Power
1
Outline
• Issues
• Occurrence
• Global Distribution
• The Uranium Market
• Forecasts
2
“Electricity too cheap to meter" vision of the 1950s
3
4
“A Faustian bargain with the atom?”
5
Dai-Ichi Plant,
Fukushima
6
Nuclear Incidents
• Windscale, U.K. 1957
Air-cooled graphite core caught fire. Area
contamination over NW England
• Three-mile Island, U.S.A. 1981 Partial core
meltdown. No casualties
• Chernobyl, Ukraine 1986
Explosion in reactor core led to widespread
contamination. 110,000 people permanently
evacuated. Possibly up to 3,000 fatalities to
date
• Daiichi, Fukushima, Japan 2011
Chernobyl, August 1987
7
Post-tsunami flooding and core meltdown
Nuclear Concerns
• Potential for very long-term contamination
• Health risks, cancers
• Decommissioning challenges. Expense
• Fears based on Chernobyl Disaster with its long-term effects. Radiation
hot spots.
8
Nuclear Issues
CONS
PROS
• Nuclear Plants cost $2-3.5billion to
build
• Currently 15% of global power
generation
• Long payback period 25-40 years
• Cheaper generating cost if gas
price >$4.70mmBtu
• Fears of serious contamination
• Climate change environmental
appeal, low to negligible CO2
emission
Windscale, U.K., 1957
Three-Mile Island, 1979
Chernobyl, 1986
Fukushima, 2011
• Waste fuel issues- long-term
storage of spent fuel
• Half-Life 1 million years
9
• Security /Diversity of supply
10
11
Post-Fukushima
• Post-Fukushima new nuclear power plants will need to design in the
consequence of low probability/high risk scenarios. 43 of 51 nuclear
power plants are now inactive in Japan
• This all lead to increased capital and operating costs
• Germany and Japan looking to phase out their power stations
• China Moratorium
12
Nuclear Global and UK Facts
o 442 reactors in 31 countries with 370 GW capacity
o Delivers 13.8% of global demand
o 65 new reactors under construction
o Post-Fukushima, moratorium in China on 25 plants under construction
o 150 new applications for global new builds over next 10 years?
o 9 more new reactors in U.K. by 2020?
o France has 59 reactors meeting 78% of national demand
13
Natural Uranium Occurrence
Occurs as several isotopes:
238U
(~ 99.3%)
235U
(~0.71%)
234U
(~0.0054%)
235U
first needs to be enriched, to increase the
concentration of this isotope to 2.5-3.5%
It can then be used as a fuel in nuclear power stations
or, with further enrichment, in nuclear weapons
14
Production Process (2)
15
Uranium Mineral Occurrence
Source: J. Monhemious, Imperial College, November 2006
Pitchblende (U3O8) and Uraninite
(UO2) are the most common minerals
from which uranium is extracted
These minerals are mainly found as
hydrothermal vein deposits in igneous
& metamorphic rock
Carnotite is a potassium uranium
vanadate which occurs in crusts and flakes in
Some sandstones
Only 1 % of the mineral will colour the
sandstone a bright yellow
16
Global Uranium Resources
17
Comparative Nuclear Generating Costs
18
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook
U.K. Nuclear Generating Status
• 14 active power stations in U.K.
• Generates 15% of UK electricity
• Decommissioning costs estimated at
£56bn before 2023!
• Ongoing debate regarding safety
• Energy Review due late2011
• Real advantage is negligible
greenhouse gas emissions and
security of supply
19
Source: BBC
UK Statistics, 2009
•
UK has a total generating capacity of 83GW and 242 power stations of all
types
Example Power Stations Design Capacities (MW)
•
Coal
1600
•
Gas
625
•
Nuclear
834
•
Wind farm
35
•
Hydroelectric
25
20
Source: DUKES-DECC, 2010
TYPE OF POWER
STATION
Number
in UK
Total power
%share
generated
TWh
Coal
11
105
28
Gas
36
165
44
Nuclear
12
69
18
Renewables
47
32
9
Hydroelectricity
60
5
1
Totals
244
376
100
21
UK Power Generation Statistics, DUKES- DECC, 2010
UK Electricity Generation Options
450
Nuclear Option?
Terrawatt-hours/year
400
350
300
Other
250
Renewables
200
Nuclear
Gas
150
Coal
100
50
0
2005
22
2025
2025