Transcript Probability of Remaining in Self-Employment by Quarter

New Indicators for the MEI
Nadim Ahmad
OECD Statistics Directorate
Short-Term Economic Statistics Working Party
Paris, 23-24 June 2008
4 Target Areas
–Entrepreneurship
–House Price Indices
–Labour Productivity
–Accession Process
– Index of Services?
Entrepreneurship
– Work on Short term Indicators of Business
dynamics
– Scoping study using EU data for 2000-2006
demonstrated feasibility of using LFS data to
create:
• (a) monthly/quarterly estimates of selfemployment and/or business ownership rates
• (b) quarterly estimates of self-employment ‘startup’ rates
• (c) self-employment ‘survival’ rates
Examples – UK: ‘start-ups’
‘Survival rates’
Probability of Remaining in Self-Employment by Quarter – UK,
2000-2006
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Entrepreneurship
– But also the need to resolve a number of issues:
• Small sample sizes create, for some countries,
volatile start-up rates
• A more serious problem for ‘survival rates’ as
responses to “in self-emp for 0-3 months’ ; “4-6
months”; “7-9 months” etc get incrementally smaller
• Data is NSA.
So, need to establish: (a) SA techniques (b) trend
estimates of start-ups and (c) averaging overtime for survival rates (so, not really a ST
indicator)
House Price Indices
– Initial OECD country scoping study to create
inventory of HPIs across OECD countries as
input into Handbook on HPIs (now being led
by Eurostat).
HPIs
Monthly/Quarterly data available for most OECD countries
AUSTRALIA
KOREA
AUSTRIA
MEXICO
CANADA
NETHERLANDS
CZECH REPUBLIC
NEW ZEALAND
DENMARK
NORWAY
FINLAND
FRANCE
PORTUGAL
GERMANY
GREECE
SPAIN
HUNGARY
SWEDEN
ICELAND
SWITZERLAND
IRELAND
UNITED KINGDOM
UNITED STATES
House Price Indices
• But a number of issues require resolution
• Best Practice/Concepts/Definitions (to
form part of the Handbook)...to help
determine....
– the most appropriate national source (some
countries have multiple sources)
– Cross-country methodological differences –
representativeness, weights, quality etc
Monthly Labour productivity
– Building on development of ULC database,
intention is to use similar sources of info to
derive Q labour productivity estimates.
– Likely to face similar obstacles, especially
volatility, and will need to investigate whether
trending and benchmarking techniques will
also resolve/ameliorate these obstacles.
OECD Accession Country Process
– CHILE
– ESTONIA,
– ISRAEL,
– RUSSIA,
– SLOVENIA
Index of Services
– Building on earlier 2007 study and
‘Compilation Manual for IOS
Production’, investigate scope and
comparability of IOS data (and sectoral
components) for OECD countries.
– Earlier study revealed scope in AUS,
CAN, JPN,KOR, MEX, NZL and US and
EU (via Regulation).
– But further investigations needed: e.g.
deflators, sectoral coverage,
correlation with SBS.