Transcript GIFS-TIGGE project

GIFS-TIGGE project
Richard Swinbank,
and Young-Youn Park,
with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group,
THORPEX IPO and other colleagues
Presentation for Africa RC meeting, April 2012
TIGGE and GIFS
 TIGGE
 TIGGE archive
 TIGGE research
 GIFS developments
 Examples of products based on TIGGE data
 Building links with SWFDP
TIGGE project
 Since 2006, TIGGE has been collecting ensemble predictions
from 10 of the leading global forecast centres.
 TIGGE data are made available after a 48-hour delay, to support
research on probabilistic forecasting methods, predictability and
dynamical processes.
 50+ TIGGE articles published in scientific literature.
TIGGE Archive Usage
100000
150
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1000
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60
10
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Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar- Apr-11 May- Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
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Month
NB. Now includes statistics from CMA
Number of Users (Count)
Volume (GB)
2011/2012 TIGGE Archive Usage (All Portals)
Vol Accessed (GB)
Vol Delivered (GB)
# Active Users
TIGGE Research
Following the successful establishment of the TIGGE
dataset, the main focus of the GIFS-TIGGE working
group has shifted towards research on ensemble
forecasting. Particular topics of interest include:
 a posteriori calibration of ensemble forecasts (bias
correction, downscaling, etc.);
 combination of ensembles produced by multiple models;
 research on and development of probabilistic forecast
products.
TIGGE data is also invaluable as a resource for a wide
range of research projects, for example: comparing
different Ensemble prediction systems; research on
dynamical processes and predictability.
Currently, over 50 articles related to TIGGE have been
published in the scientific literature.
Towards a Global Interactive Forecast
System (GIFS)
 Our objective is to realise the benefits of THORPEX research by
developing and evaluating probabilistic products.
 Focus on risks of high-impact weather events – unlikely but
potentially catastrophic.
 First step: exchange of real-time tropical cyclone predictions
using “Cyclone XML” format.
 Followed by development of products based on gridded forecasts
of heavy precipitation & strong wind.
Piers
Buchanan,
Met Office
Example Met Office products for a
named storm
MOGREPS-15: Ma-On, 12Z Fri 14th July 2011
 Left hand plot: 24 ensemble tracks
 Middle plot: strike probability – probability that the storm will be within 75 miles
within the next 15 days.
 Right hand plot: MOGREPS ensemble mean (blue), control (cyan), previous
observations (red) and deterministic track (green)
TOMAS: MOGREPS-15 12Z North Atlantic
forecast on Wednesday 27th October 2010.
Use of MOGREPS-15 products
in SWFDDP
Flash floods/snow in South Africa (June 2011)
+ 8-day
forecast
Mio Matsueda
Steps to progress use of GIFS products
in SWFDP
 Progress so far
 TC products based on CXML data; prototype products based
on gridded TIGGE forecast data
 Provided documentation of prototype products
 GIFS-TIGGE WG co-chair attended recent SWFDP SG
meeting
 Seek feedback from RSMCs coordinating SWFDP regional
subprojects
 Future
 Develop real-time products for SWFDP based on preferred
prototypes, e.g., Multi-model versions of TC products; near
real-time versions of highest priority rainfall products.
 Supply products to SWFDP regional websites
 Provide training via SWFDP
 GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and
Water) is a 3-year EU-funded FP7 project starting September
2011.
 The Weather component includes:
 improving access to TIGGE data at ECMWF.
 developing and demonstrating forecast products.
 Weather participants: ECMWF, Met Office, Météo-France, KIT
 Involve other TIGGE partners in planning development &
demonstration of products in conjunction with SWFDP.
GIFS-TIGGE 31 August - 2 September 2011
Summary
 Since October 2006, the TIGGE archive has been accumulating
regular ensemble forecasts from leading global NWP centres.
 The TIGGE data is available for research after a 48-hour delay,
and has been used for a wide range of scientific research studies.
 Various products have been developed to use the tropical cyclone
forecast data exchanged using CXML, and, more recently,
prototype gridded products from the TIGGE data set.
 The SWFDP regional centres will assess the prototype GIFS
products for possible inclusion as real-time products on the
SWFDP websites, and we will collaborate with them on
implementation & evaluation.
TIGGE website: http://tigge.ecmwf.int