Transcript Demonstration of a discrete entity simulation model presentation

Defence Analytical Services and
Advice
Ministry of Defence
Forecasting Armed Forces manpower
Gary Cottrill and Ditch Boultbee
Presentation content
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Introduction to DASA.
DASA’s modelling portfolio.
What is forecasting?
Deterministic v Stochastic methodologies.
RAF requirements for an untrained strength
model.
6. Demonstration of the RAF untrained model.
Who are DASA?
•Provide the MoD with economic, statistical and related
management information, advice and research.
•Home to MoD heads of profession for statistics and
economics.
•Experienced in developing manpower models.
•Historically reliant on Excel / VBA. Currently
redeveloping models using Arena simulation software.
Examples of current modelling activities
• RAF untrained forecasting
• Short and long term forecasts for the Naval Service,
Army and RAF
• Structural modelling of the Naval Service, Army and
RAF
• Naval Service econometric modelling of liability
• Civilian workforce reductions modelling
Forecasting
A definition:
“The process of analysing current and historical data to
determine future trends”.
Requirements:
1. Historical data from which to build ‘profiles’.
2. Subject matter experts (of the process being modelled)
who can complement the data with assumptions.
3. Technical experts for model build.
Deterministic v Stochastic
methodologies
• Deterministic:
– Variables uniquely determined by parameters
in the model.
• Stochastic models:
– Randomness is present, variables are
described by probability distributions.
RAF untrained model requirements
1. How many personnel are becoming trained, by
branch?
2. Target driven and input driven.
3. Model ‘what if’ scenarios e.g. changing course
lengths/capacities
4. To identify:
a. Training wastage
b. Course usage
c. Waiting times
d. Bottlenecks
RAF Untrained model: A demonstration of the use
of Arena software in manpower planning:
a. Model Introduction / General overview
b. Phase 1 training example
c. Questions?
Contact details:
Gary Cottrill
020 721 80307
[email protected]
Ditch Boultbee 020 721 85215
[email protected]