Transcript Bangladesh 3

The role of assumptions
Critical Assumptions
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Define the systems environment and sustainability issues
Factors which the project cannot control
Outside the scope of intervention
Essential to projects success
Results-to-purpose assumptions are the critical success
factors
Beware of “Killer” assumptions!!
Assumptions
Is the external factor important?
No
Yes
Will it be realised?
Do not include in plan
Almost certainly
Do not include in plan
Include as an assumption
Most likely
Unlikely
Redesign project, reformulate
project proposal
Is it possible to redesign or
Influence?
Yes
No
Plan, strategy, project not
feasible
Sustainability
“A project is said to be sustainable when it continues to
deliver benefits to the project beneficiaries for an
extended period after the main part of the donor
assistance has been completed.”
Sustainability
Key factors;
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Policy support
Appropriate technology
Institutional and management capacity
Economic and financial viability
Socio-cultural and gender issues
Environmental protection
These factors are assessed in terms of their probability and
significance in the same way as external factors using the
algorithm.
Sustainability
Sustainability starts with project programme design, for
example;
A project to improve peoples lives through increased food
production via irrigation and use of pesticides.
Will not be sustainable if water is extracted faster than
replenished, or if increased food production is made at the
expense of pesticides in the drinking water supply.
Such a project will not be sustainable even if the increased
food production is attained.
Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI)
OVI describe the project’s objectives in operationally
measurable terms & provide the basis for performance
measurement.
The specification of OVI act as a check on viability of objectives
and form the basis of the project monitoring system.
Objectively Verifiable Indicators means that different people
using the same indicators would obtain the same
measurements.
Ensuring OVI’s are specific
Objective: Health status improved
Set Quality (nature of indicator) mortality rates reduced
Set Target Group (who) infant mortality rates reduced
Set place (where) infant mortality rates reduced in north-west
province.
Set Quantity: infant mortality rates reduced in north-west province
from X to Y.
Set Time: infant mortality rates reduced in north-west province from X
to Y by the year 2015.
Sources of Verification (SOV)
When indicators are formulated the source of information and
means of collection should be specified. This will help to test
whether or not the indicators can be realistically measured at
the expense of time, money and effort.
SOV should specify;
• The format information should be made available (e.g.
progress reports, project accounts, project records, official
statistics etc.
• Who should provide the information
• How regularly it should be provided
Selecting sources of verification
Specific sample
surveys
Cost
Beneficiary interviews
Adapted statistics
Administrative
records
Management
reports
Routine statistics
Complexity
Means and Costs
“Means” are the human, material and financial resources
required to undertake the planned activity and manage the
project.
To provide an accurate estimate of the means and costs
required for a project, planned activities and management
support activities need to be specified in detail.
One area of particular attention is the cost of collecting data on
OVIs.
The Logframe an Example
A completed Logframe for our example project; points to note;
• Formulation of the three elements of the project purpose
“Rates of infection in babies reduced”, “Reduced rate of birth
problems” and “Rates of infection in infants reduced” into a
single statement.
• The inclusion of assumptions on nutrition to be dealt with by
another project.
• Building capacity through training staff in data collection and
evaluation
• Inclusion of pre-conditions which must be met before funding
approved
A presentation tool
The completed Logframe provides a concise summary of the
project, its objectives, indicators and sources of information by
which progress will be measured, key risks and assumptions
which may affect achievement of objectives.
The logframe will be appended to a comprehensive project plan
which will explain in detail how it will be implemented.
Overall
Objective
Project
Purpose
Results
Intervention logic
Objectively Verifiable Indicators
Sources of Validation
Infant & maternal
mortality rates
reduced
Mortality rates reduced for
under 1s, under 5s & mothers
from X to Y by 2015
Dept of Health stats
analysed, ex-ante,
mid term, ex-post
Health status of
pregnant and nursing
mothers, babies &
infants improved
Incidence of infection in health
Hospital records
centres reduced from X to Y by X analysed ex-ante, mid
term, ex-post
Rates of diseases in under 5s
reduced from X to Y by 2015
Sample survey of
target group in years
Birth problems reduced from X to
1,3, 5
Y by wwww
Incidence of
infectious
diseases in the
household
reduced
1. Functioning
primary healthcare
service established at
district level
Number of PHC services up
from X to Y by xyz
Mothers willing to
attend clinics
2. Quality & Efficiency
of secondary
healthcare improved
Activities
Assumptions
1. Replace mobile clinics
Number of under 5s vaccinated
increased from X to Y by xyz
Number of Patients treated up
from X to Y by xyz
Technical assistance
2.Recruit and train village Equipment
birth attendants
Medical supplies
3. Design and implement (See activity schedule)
new procedures for ….
Clinical attendance
records analysed
quarterly
Vaccination records
analysed quarterly
Hospital records
analysed quarterly
Lump sum costs
Reimbursables
(See Budget)
Household
nutrition improves
through availability
of high protein
foods
Dept of Health
maintains level of
funding at pre
project levels in
real terms
Pre-condition
Dept of Health
implements
strategy of …….
Summary
To properly assess the real needs of beneficiaries and to take
account of differing views of different stakeholders it is important
to bring together stakeholders at the Analysis phase.
A Gender integrated approach is necessary to ensure that
project design is consistent with differing roles of men and
women.
Summary
The main output of the LFA is the logframe matrix.
The Logframe is not a comprehensive tool and does not
guarantee project success. All to often the “fill-in-the boxes”
approach is used to complete the logframe matrix during project
design, leading to poorly prepared projects with unclear
objectives and a lack of ownership by stakeholders.
Summary
It is essential to ensure that the levels of objectives are correct.
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Overall Objectives – the wider sectoral or national
programme objectives to which the project is designed to
contribute.
• Project Purpose – the sustainable benefits to be delivered to
project beneficiaries, institution or system.
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Results – the services to be provided by the project
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Activities – how the projects goods and services will be
delivered
Summary
External factors which will affect the projects implementation
and long-term sustainability but which lie outside the projects
control are included as assumptions.
The probability and significance of these assumptions being met
should be estimated as part of assessing the riskiness of the
project.
Long-term sustainability depends on factors such as, policy
support, technology, institutional and management capacity,
economic and financial viability, gender, social-cultural and
environmental protection.
Summary
The role of Objectively Verifiable Indicators is to describe
the overall objective (s), project purpose and results in
operationally measurable terms.
The significance of OVIs acts as a check on the viability of
objectives and forms the basis of the project monitoring
system.