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Introduction to Environmental Analysis Environ 239 Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias Skills Unit 11: Modeling animal populations for wildlife conservation What we learned about the use of models to aid in decision making • Simulating multiple contrasting scenarios can be useful, but it might it might take some exploration to find the best set of scenarios • Year-to-year randomness can alter the way a resource needs to be managed. • Key state variables (such as adult stock size, or number of migrating smolts) need to be monitored each year so the manager knows what the system is doing • Simulation of one effect alone (e.g. dam construction) does not tell you how that might interact with other effects (e.g. development in the watershed) What we learned about the use of models to aid in decision making (2) • Adjusting parameters to test scenarios seems arbitrary unless you have some data on what the values are and how they change under the different scenarios • It seemed that just about every change we simulated seemed to degrade the resource in some way Pinyon-Juniper Pinyon-Juniper forest, Utah Class exercise: Equilibrium diagram Class exercise: Graded Question on Reading • How does Ford (in Chapter 16) develop a deer carrying capacity that is independent of predation? How does he incorporate this into the model as a control on the rate of deer population growth? Pinyon-Juniper forest, Utah Pinyon pines Grand Canyon, south rim Introduction to Environmental Analysis Environ 239 Instructor: Prof. W. S. Currie GSIs: Nate Bosch, Michele Tobias Skills Unit 11: Modeling animal populations for wildlife conservation Top Ten Funniest ratings from www.ratemyprofessor.com 6. Teaches well, invites questions and then insults you for 20 minutes. 7. I learned how to hate a language I already know. 8. Bring a pillow. 9. She hates you already. 10. You can't cheat in her class because no one knows the answers. Top Ten Funniest ratings from www.ratemyprofessor.com 1. His class was like milk, it was good for 2 weeks. 2. Three of my friends got A's in his class and my friends are dumb. 3. Evil computer science teaching robot who crushes humans for pleasure. 4. Instant amnesia walking into this class. I swear he breathes sleeping gas. 5. Not only is the book a better teacher, it also has a better personality. Considering and incorporating spatial processes in dynamic models Probability of wolf presence (interpreted as habitat suitability) Metapopulation: Local populations are sources or sinks Turner, Gardner, O’Neill 2001 Rondonia, Brazil 1975 -- Landsat 2 MSS bands 4,2,1 Rondonia, Brazil 1986 -- Landsat 5 MSS bands 4,2,1 Rondonia, Brazil 1992 -- Landsat 4 TM bands 4,3,2 Forest edge Abandoned pasture Stratford & Robinson 2005, Frontiers in Ecology & Environment Dale et al. model used in Rhondonia: Over time, loss of area suitable as habitat for species with (a) high gapcrossing or (b) low gapcrossing ability (as this interacts with agricultural practices) Turner, Gardner, O’Neill 2001 Small group discussion • Suppose you wanted to improve the Kaibab Deer Herd population model by incorporating spatial processes. – What would you try to focus on in establishing scenarios to simulate? (Example … three scenarios that varied _____ ) – What data would you need to gather in order to parameterize and/or test these simulated scenarios? Scenario simulations: What students came up with • Deer stocks in core vs edge habitat: scenarios regarding variability in edge / core ratio • Varying patch size and patch separation, with forage different in different patch sizes Data to gather: What students came up with • Patch size and distance • Forage quality in patches • Deer density and/or predator density in core vs edge • Patch crossing ability of the deer Small group discussion • Can you list three similarities between dynamic process modeling and statistical-correlational approaches • Can you list 2 things that are better, and 1 thing that is worse about dynamic modeling versus statistical?